bandit_soln.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Bayesian Statistics Made Simple\n",
    "===\n",
    "\n",
    "Code and exercises from my workshop on Bayesian statistics in Python.\n",
    "\n",
    "Copyright 2018 Allen Downey\n",
    "\n",
    "MIT License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# If we're running on Colab, install empiricaldist\n",
    "# https://pypi.org/project/empiricaldist/\n",
    "\n",
    "import sys\n",
    "IN_COLAB = 'google.colab' in sys.modules\n",
    "\n",
    "if IN_COLAB:\n",
    "    !pip install empiricaldist"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "\n",
    "import seaborn as sns\n",
    "sns.set_style('white')\n",
    "sns.set_context('talk')\n",
    "\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "\n",
    "from empiricaldist import Pmf"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### The Bayesian bandit problem\n",
    "\n",
    "Suppose you have several \"one-armed bandit\" slot machines, and reason to think that they have different probabilities of paying off.\n",
    "\n",
    "Each time you play a machine, you either win or lose, and you can use the outcome to update your belief about the probability of winning.\n",
    "\n",
    "Then, to decide which machine to play next, you can use the \"Bayesian bandit\" strategy, explained below.\n",
    "\n",
    "First, let's see how to do the update."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### The prior\n",
    "\n",
    "If we know nothing about the probability of wining, we can start with a uniform prior."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def decorate_bandit(title):\n",
    "    \"\"\"Labels the axes.\n",
    "    \n",
    "    title: string\n",
    "    \"\"\"\n",
    "    plt.xlabel('Probability of winning')\n",
    "    plt.ylabel('PMF')\n",
    "    plt.title(title)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<Figure size 432x288 with 1 Axes>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {
      "needs_background": "light"
     },
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "bandit = Pmf.from_seq(range(101))\n",
    "bandit.plot()\n",
    "decorate_bandit('Prior distribution')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### The likelihood function\n",
    "\n",
    "The likelihood function that computes the probability of an outcome (W or L) for a hypothetical value of x, the probability of winning (from 0 to 1)."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def likelihood_bandit(data, hypo):\n",
    "    \"\"\"Likelihood function for Bayesian bandit\n",
    "    \n",
    "    data: string, either 'W' or 'L'\n",
    "    hypo: probability of winning (0-100)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    returns: float probability\n",
    "    \"\"\"\n",
    "    x = hypo / 100\n",
    "    if data == 'W':\n",
    "        return x\n",
    "    else:\n",
    "        return 1-x"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "**Exercise 1:** Suppose you play a machine 10 times and win once.  What is the posterior distribution of $x$?"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<Figure size 432x288 with 1 Axes>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {
      "needs_background": "light"
     },
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# Solution\n",
    "\n",
    "for outcome in 'WLLLLLLLLL':\n",
    "    bandit.update(likelihood_bandit, outcome)\n",
    "    \n",
    "bandit.plot()\n",
    "decorate_bandit('Posterior distribution, 9 loss, one win')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Multiple bandits"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Now suppose we have several bandits and we want to decide which one to play.\n",
    "\n",
    "For this example, we have 4 machines with these probabilities:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "actual_probs = [0.10, 0.20, 0.30, 0.40]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "The function `play` simulates playing one machine once and returns `W` or `L`."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "from random import random\n",
    "from collections import Counter\n",
    "\n",
    "# count how many times we've played each machine\n",
    "counter = Counter()\n",
    "\n",
    "def flip(p):\n",
    "    \"\"\"Return True with probability p.\"\"\"\n",
    "    return random() < p\n",
    "\n",
    "def play(i):\n",
    "    \"\"\"Play machine i.\n",
    "    \n",
    "    returns: string 'W' or 'L'\n",
    "    \"\"\"\n",
    "    counter[i] += 1\n",
    "    p = actual_probs[i]\n",
    "    if flip(p):\n",
    "        return 'W'\n",
    "    else:\n",
    "        return 'L'"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Here's a test, playing machine 3 twenty times:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "L W L L L L L L W W W W L L L L W L L W "
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for i in range(20):\n",
    "    result = play(3)\n",
    "    print(result, end=' ')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Now I'll make 4 `Pmf` objects to represent our beliefs about the 4 machines."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 10,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "prior = range(101)\n",
    "beliefs = [Pmf.from_seq(prior) for i in range(4)]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "This function displays the four posterior distributions"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 11,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "options = dict(xticklabels='invisible', yticklabels='invisible')\n",
    "\n",
    "def plot(beliefs, **options):\n",
    "    sns.set_context('paper')\n",
    "    for i, b in enumerate(beliefs):\n",
    "        plt.subplot(2, 2, i+1)\n",
    "        b.plot(label='Machine %s' % i)\n",
    "        plt.gca().set_yticklabels([])\n",
    "        plt.legend()\n",
    "        \n",
    "    plt.tight_layout()\n",
    "    sns.set_context('talk')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 12,
   "metadata": {
    "scrolled": true
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": "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\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<Figure size 432x288 with 4 Axes>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {
      "needs_background": "light"
     },
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "plot(beliefs)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "The following function updates our beliefs about one of the machines based on one outcome."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def update(beliefs, i, outcome):\n",
    "    \"\"\"Update beliefs about machine i, given outcome.\n",
    "    \n",
    "    beliefs: list of Pmf\n",
    "    i: index into beliefs\n",
    "    outcome: string 'W' or 'L'\n",
    "    \"\"\"\n",
    "    beliefs[i].update(likelihood_bandit, outcome)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "**Exercise 2:** Write a nested loop that plays each machine 10 times; then plot the posterior distributions.  \n",
    "\n",
    "Hint: call `play` and then `update`."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 14,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Solution\n",
    "\n",
    "for i in range(4):\n",
    "    for _ in range(10):\n",
    "        outcome = play(i)\n",
    "        update(beliefs, i, outcome)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 15,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<Figure size 432x288 with 4 Axes>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {
      "needs_background": "light"
     },
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# Solution\n",
    "\n",
    "plot(beliefs)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "After playing each machine 10 times, we can summarize `beliefs` by printing the posterior mean and credible interval:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 16,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "25.00001236675582 [ 8. 47.]\n",
      "16.68194469884906 [ 3. 36.]\n",
      "41.666666663460255 [20. 65.]\n",
      "16.68194469884906 [ 3. 36.]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for i, b in enumerate(beliefs):\n",
    "    print(b.mean(), b.credible_interval(0.9))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Bayesian Bandits\n",
    "\n",
    "To get more information, we could play each machine 100 times, but while we are gathering data, we are not making good use of it.  The kernel of the Bayesian Bandits algorithm is that it collects and uses data at the same time.  In other words, it balances exploration and exploitation.\n",
    "\n",
    "The following function chooses among the machines so that the probability of choosing each machine is proportional to its \"probability of superiority\".\n",
    "\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 17,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def choose(beliefs):\n",
    "    \"\"\"Use the Bayesian bandit strategy to choose a machine.\n",
    "    \n",
    "    Draws a sample from each distributions.\n",
    "    \n",
    "    returns: index of the machine that yielded the highest value\n",
    "    \"\"\"\n",
    "    ps = [b.choice() for b in beliefs]\n",
    "    return np.argmax(ps)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "This function chooses one value from the posterior distribution of each machine and then uses `argmax` to find the index of the machine that chose the highest value.\n",
    "\n",
    "Here's an example."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 18,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "2"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 18,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "choose(beliefs)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "**Exercise 3:** Putting it all together, fill in the following function to choose a machine, play once, and update `beliefs`:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 19,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def choose_play_update(beliefs, verbose=False):\n",
    "    \"\"\"Chose a machine, play it, and update beliefs.\n",
    "    \n",
    "    beliefs: list of Pmf objects\n",
    "    verbose: Boolean, whether to print results\n",
    "    \"\"\"\n",
    "    # choose a machine\n",
    "    machine = ____\n",
    "    \n",
    "    # play it\n",
    "    outcome = ____\n",
    "    \n",
    "    # update beliefs\n",
    "    update(____)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    if verbose:\n",
    "        print(i, outcome, beliefs[machine].mean())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 20,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Solution\n",
    "\n",
    "def choose_play_update(beliefs, verbose=False):\n",
    "    \"\"\"Chose a machine, play it, and update beliefs.\n",
    "    \n",
    "    beliefs: list of Pmf objects\n",
    "    verbose: Boolean, whether to print results\n",
    "    \"\"\"\n",
    "    # choose a machine\n",
    "    machine = choose(beliefs)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    # play it\n",
    "    outcome = play(machine)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    # update beliefs\n",
    "    update(beliefs, machine, outcome)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    if verbose:\n",
    "        print(i, outcome, beliefs[machine].mean())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Here's an example"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 21,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "3 W 23.076939985507135\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "choose_play_update(beliefs, verbose=True)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Trying it out"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Let's start again with a fresh set of machines and an empty `Counter`."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 22,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "beliefs = [Pmf.from_seq(prior) for i in range(4)]\n",
    "counter = Counter()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "If we run the bandit algorithm 100 times, we can see how `beliefs` gets updated:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 23,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<Figure size 432x288 with 4 Axes>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {
      "needs_background": "light"
     },
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "num_plays = 100\n",
    "\n",
    "for i in range(num_plays):\n",
    "    choose_play_update(beliefs)\n",
    "    \n",
    "plot(beliefs)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "We can summarize `beliefs` by printing the posterior mean and credible interval:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 24,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "12.067578772793167 [ 0. 34.]\n",
      "12.067578772793167 [ 0. 34.]\n",
      "35.29411764705883 [25. 47.]\n",
      "41.46341463414634 [29. 54.]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for i, b in enumerate(beliefs):\n",
    "    print(b.mean(), b.credible_interval(0.9))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "The credible intervals usually contain the true values (10, 20, 30, and 40).\n",
    "\n",
    "The estimates are still rough, especially for the lower-probability machines.  But that's a feature, not a bug: the goal is to play the high-probability machines most often.  Making the estimates more precise is a means to that end, but not an end itself.\n",
    "\n",
    "Let's see how many times each machine got played.  If things go according to plan, the machines with higher probabilities should get played more often."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 25,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0 6\n",
      "1 6\n",
      "2 49\n",
      "3 39\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for machine, count in sorted(counter.items()):\n",
    "    print(machine, count)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "source": [
    "**Exercise 4:**  Go back and run this section again with a different value of `num_play` and see how it does."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  }
 ],
 "metadata": {
  "kernelspec": {
   "display_name": "Python 3",
   "language": "python",
   "name": "python3"
  },
  "language_info": {
   "codemirror_mode": {
    "name": "ipython",
    "version": 3
   },
   "file_extension": ".py",
   "mimetype": "text/x-python",
   "name": "python",
   "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
   "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
   "version": "3.7.3"
  }
 },
 "nbformat": 4,
 "nbformat_minor": 1
}