Note: This tool was developed as part of a research project in collaboration with thyssenkrupp and was crafted by a team of six students from WWU. The project cannot run because of the deletion of the data files for privacy reasons.
Driven by changing market dynamics, globalization, and customer preferences, supply chains have evolved tremendously over the past years. Supply chains in general are a combination of several entities but modern supply chain networks are becoming increasingly complex with multiple layers and multiple actors involved from several geographical locations that interact on different levels to produce numerous products. This expansion has also made supply chains more vulnerable to disruptions caused in the global marketplace. Small incidents can cause massive impacts and expose weaknesses in supply chains which are not easily captured by traditional risk analysis methods. Thus, to make supply chains more resilient, there is a need to have proactive approaches that can address constant exposure of supply chains to novel risks. The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated preexisting issues and exposed the vulnerabilities of supply chain networks. The disruptions caused by the pandemic highlighted the threats caused by uncertainty and how companies tend to have more reactive approaches towards risks. Research shows that the majority of supply chains are not prepared to handle what unfolds because of uncertain events such as pandemics or geopolitical disturbances like wars, and thus suffer from unpleasant consequences. All this discussion has brought significant attention to the importance of aspects of supply chain visibility, resilience, and digitization.
The ThyssenKrupp Schulte (TK) GmbH is a producer-independent materials trader that mainly operates in the German market. Their product range includes materials made of steel, stainless steel, and nonferrous metals as well as various service products in supply chain management. thyssenkrupp’s business profitability is very much dependent on the procurement of the materials and their prices. This also means that company is highly exposed to risks related to commodity price volatility and supply chain disruptions. Additionally, the company’s reliance on the German market also poses risks related to changes in local regulations, economic conditions, and competitive pressures (GmbH 2023).
In the wake of globalization the business with materials and commodities has become a very price competitive industry with new procurement opportunities. Additionally, there has been a constant trend of high volatility in commodity prices which is a major influence on the operation and the profitability of the organization. A reliable supply of commodities at a good price with accurate demand forecasting is a challenging task. This project seminar conducted in collaboration of TK and Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität (WWU) aims to assist risk management in TK by conducting thorough research of risks faced by the organization, exploring ideas for minimizing major risks with a goal to creating a workable solution.
This paper aims to provide the summary of goals, practical steps, research findings, and final outcomes of the seminar. The topics covered are theoretical background on the topic of supply chain risk management with a specific focus on price fluctuations of commodities and scenario planning. Further, it will expound on the management of supply chain risks as well as the Sales and Operations Planning process. Afterwards, the authors describe the organization and management of the project in chapter 4. The document will also provide a brief introduction to the project team. Following the project setup, there is a description of the process of devising a solution and its final concept along with implementation of the project in detail. Hereby, the author will present the project timeline, the interview results, the concept of the tool, the analysis of the data that was used as well as the software development of the tool. Finally, this document concludes and provides an outlook on how to improve the tool in the future.
Energy price and US doller index have strong positive and negative relationships with aluminium price
