From cbe3981da95ad91dbb5007a03f6b9a198f7c4d8c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: thurber Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 16:11:14 -0800 Subject: [PATCH] fixes #18 --- docs/source/2.2_perspectives_on_diagnostic_model_evaluation.rst | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/docs/source/2.2_perspectives_on_diagnostic_model_evaluation.rst b/docs/source/2.2_perspectives_on_diagnostic_model_evaluation.rst index e21d7137..9af331d2 100644 --- a/docs/source/2.2_perspectives_on_diagnostic_model_evaluation.rst +++ b/docs/source/2.2_perspectives_on_diagnostic_model_evaluation.rst @@ -15,4 +15,4 @@ Multiple authors have proposed that the traditional reliance on single measures As a final point, when a model is used in a projection mode, its results are also subject to additional uncertainty, as there is no guarantee that the model’s functionality and predictive ability will stay the same as the baseline, where the verification and validation tests were conducted. This challenge requires an additional expansion of the scope of model evaluation: a broader set of uncertain conditions needs to be explored, spanning beyond historical observation and exploring a wide range of unprecedented conditions. This perspective on modeling, termed exploratory :cite:`bankes_exploratory_1993`, views models as computational experiments that can be used to explore vast ensembles of potential scenarios to identify those with consequential effects. Exploratory modeling literature explicitly orients experiments toward stakeholder consequences and decision-relevant inferences and shifts the focus from predicting future conditions to *discovering* which conditions lead to undesirable or desirable consequences. -**This evolution in modeling perspectives can be mirrored by the IM3 family of models in a progression from evaluating models relative to observed history to advanced formalized analyses to make inferences on multisector, multiscale vulnerabilities and resilience. Exploratory modeling approaches can help fashion experiments with large numbers of alternative hypotheses on the co-evolutionary dynamics of influences, stressors, as well as path-dependent changes in the form and function of human-natural systems :cite:`weaver_improving_2013`. The aim of this text is to therefore guide the reader through the use of sensitivity analysis (SA) methods across these perspectives on diagnostic and exploratory modeling.** +This evolution in modeling perspectives can be mirrored by the IM3 family of models in a progression from evaluating models relative to observed history to advanced formalized analyses to make inferences on multisector, multiscale vulnerabilities and resilience. Exploratory modeling approaches can help fashion experiments with large numbers of alternative hypotheses on the co-evolutionary dynamics of influences, stressors, as well as path-dependent changes in the form and function of human-natural systems :cite:`weaver_improving_2013`. The aim of this text is to therefore guide the reader through the use of sensitivity analysis (SA) methods across these perspectives on diagnostic and exploratory modeling.