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subject4_experiment2.m
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% **** global optimum 6.482 found at B1=1.250, B2=1.250 k_carbs=0.016, k_insulin=0.0150, SC=7.0, SI=42.0, C=6.00, BCI=0.0 hours, carb delay 15 min *****
%**** new optimum 5.826 found at B1=1.300, B2=1.000 k_carbs=0.019, k_insulin=0.0150, SC=5.0, SI=30.0, C=6.00, BCI=0.0 *****
first_bolus_time = -(2*60 + (38-10))/60;
first_bolus = 0 ;
BG0 = [143.5 138.5 150 164.5 196 224.5 239 255.5 255 263 277.5 287 ...
282 286 277.5 265 258 250 242 232.5 228 219.5 214 208 196.5 ...
191.5 ] ;
BG0 = [42.2 54.25 57.55 83.8 112.5 144.5 158 171.5 193.5 204.5 201.5 ...
210.5 207.5 207 204.5 203.5 195 194.5 191.5 188.5 182.5 176.5 ...
173.5 165 164 160];
min_per_hour = 60 ;
carb_delay = 7/min_per_hour
carbs = 50;
protein = 22 ;
protein_to_carb_ratio = 0.1 ;
carbs = carbs + protein * protein_to_carb_ratio ;
dt = 10;
time = [-10:dt:240];
time = time ./ min_per_hour ;
dt = dt ./ min_per_hour ;
if (dt == 10/60)
BG = BG0;
else
BG = zeros(size(time)) ;
BG(1:2:end) = BG0 ;
for i=2:2:length(BG)-1
BG(i) = (BG(i-1) + BG(i+1))/2;
end
end
% subject specific stuff
bolus = 5.4+.2 ;
basal1 = 1.3*dt ;
basal2 = 1.0*dt ;
pct_parm_change = 0.5 ;
basal_time = -10:dt:time(end) ;
basal = ones(size(basal_time))*basal1 ;
[foo, basal_change_index] = min(abs(basal_time*60-0));
[foo, bolus_index] = min(abs(basal_time*60-0)); % bolus at time 0
[foo, first_bolus_index] = min(abs(basal_time-first_bolus_time)); % bolus at 7:10
basal(first_bolus_index) = basal(first_bolus_index) + first_bolus ;
basal(basal_change_index:end) = basal(basal_change_index:end) *basal2/basal1;
total_insulin = basal ;
total_insulin(bolus_index) = total_insulin(bolus_index)+bolus ;
bolus_schedule = zeros(size(time)) ;
[foo, bolus_index] = min(abs(time*60-0));
bolus_schedule(bolus_index) = bolus ;
[foo,time_start_index] = min(abs(basal_time-time(1)));
[foo,time_end_index] = min(abs(basal_time-time(end)));
pump_basal = basal ;
% given at 8:52 AM. (time 0)
% food eaten at 8:56
estimateIOBTable;
SI_best = 50 ; % insulin sensitivity, BG/insulin
b1_best = basal1 ;
b2_best = basal2 ;
C_best = 10 ; % carb ratio, carbs/insulin
SC_best = SI_best / C_best ;
k_carbs_best = .005 ;
bci_best = basal_change_index ;
k_insulin_best = .025 ;
basal = ones(size(basal_time))*b1_best ;
basal(basal_change_index:end) = basal(basal_change_index:end) *b2_best/b1_best;
[bact, babs] = compute_total_insulin_timecourse(basal, 60*basal_time, k_insulin_best,.001,k_insulin_best);
basal_absorbed = babs(time_start_index:time_end_index) ;
[pump_basal_active_long, pump_basal_absorbed_long] = compute_total_insulin_timecourse(pump_basal, 60*basal_time, k_insulin_best,.001,k_insulin_best);
pump_basal_absorbed = pump_basal_absorbed_long(time_start_index:time_end_index);
basal_difference = pump_basal_absorbed - basal_absorbed ;
[active_insulin, bolus_absorbed] = compute_total_insulin_timecourse(bolus_schedule, 60*time, k_insulin_best,.001, k_insulin_best);
carbs_metabolized = predict_carb_uptake(carbs, .0, k_carbs_best, time,carb_delay) ;
rms_best = compute_bg_error(BG(1),BG, bolus_absorbed, carbs_metabolized, time, SI_best, basal_difference, SC_best);
M0 = BG(1) ;
disp(sprintf('**** new optimum %2.3f found at B1=%2.3f, B2=%2.3f k_carbs=%2.3f, k_insulin=%2.4f, SC=%2.1f, SI=%2.0f, C=%2.1f *****', rms_best,b1_best/dt, b2_best/dt,k_carbs_best,k_insulin_best,SC_best,SI_best, C_best));
rms_best = sqrt((length(time) * 400^2)/length(time)) ;
k_carb_range = 0.005:0.001:0.05;
k_carbs_table = zeros(length(k_carb_range), length(time)) ;
ci = 1 ;
for k=k_carb_range
k_carbs_table(ci,:) = predict_carb_uptake(carbs, .0, k, time,carb_delay) ;
ci = ci+1 ;
end
b1_range = 1.0*dt:.025*dt:1.5*dt ;
b1_range = basal1 ;
b2_range = .8*dt:.025*dt:1.5*dt ;
bci_range = basal_change_index;
bci_range = (basal_change_index+(round(0/dt)):round(0.5/dt):(basal_change_index+(round(2.5/dt))));
% bci_range = basal_change_index ;
k_insulin_range=.005:0.001:.04;
C_range = 3:1:20 ;
SI_range = 20:2:100 ;
SC_range = 5:.5:15;
Clen = length(C_range) ;
SIlen = length(SI_range) ;
rms_table = zeros(Clen, SIlen);
pool = parpool(25) ;
for bci=bci_range
for b1=b1_range
disp(sprintf('searching BCI=%2.1f (%d), basal1 = %2.3f', dt*(bci-basal_change_index), bci,b1/dt)) ;
for b2=b2_range
basal = ones(size(basal_time))*b1 ;
% basal(basal_change_index:end) = basal(basal_change_index:end) *b2/b1;
basal(bci:end) = basal(bci:end) *b2/b1;
for k_insulin=k_insulin_range
[active_insulin, bolus_absorbed] = compute_total_insulin_timecourse(bolus_schedule, 60*time, k_insulin,.001,k_insulin);
if (active_insulin(end) > 0.1*bolus)
continue
end
[bact, babs] = compute_total_insulin_timecourse(basal, 60*basal_time, k_insulin,.001,k_insulin);
basal_absorbed = babs(time_start_index:time_end_index) ;
[pump_basal_active_long, pump_basal_absorbed_long] = compute_total_insulin_timecourse(pump_basal, 60*basal_time, k_insulin,.001,k_insulin);
pump_basal_absorbed = pump_basal_absorbed_long(time_start_index:time_end_index);
basal_difference = pump_basal_absorbed - basal_absorbed ;
ci = 1 ;
for k_carbs=k_carb_range
% carbs_metabolized = predict_carb_uptake(carbs, .0, k_carbs, time,carb_delay) ;
carbs_metabolized = k_carbs_table(ci,:) ;
ci = ci + 1 ;
if (carbs_metabolized(end) < .9*carbs)
continue
end
parfor CRi=1:Clen
C = C_range(CRi) ;
for SIi=1:SIlen
SI = SI_range(SIi) ;
SC = SI / C ;
if (SC >= SC_range(1) & SC < SC_range(end))
rms = compute_bg_error(BG(1), BG, bolus_absorbed, carbs_metabolized, time, SI, basal_difference, SC);
else
rms = sqrt((length(time) * 400^2)/length(time)) ;
end
rms_table(CRi,SIi) = rms ;
end
end
[test_min_rms,index] = min(rms_table(:)) ;
if (test_min_rms < rms_best)
rms_best = test_min_rms ;
CRi = mod(index,size(rms_table,1)) ;
SIi = ceil(index/size(rms_table,1));
C = C_range(CRi) ;
SI = SI_range(SIi) ;
k_insulin_best = k_insulin ;
k_carbs_best = k_carbs ;
b1_best = b1 ;
b2_best = b2 ;
C_best = C ;
SI_best = SI ;
SC_best = SI_best/C_best ;
bci_best = bci ;
[pump_basal_active_long, pump_basal_absorbed_long] = compute_total_insulin_timecourse(pump_basal, 60*basal_time, k_insulin_best,.001,k_insulin_best);
pump_basal_absorbed = pump_basal_absorbed_long(time_start_index:time_end_index);
basal = ones(size(basal_time))*b1_best ;
basal(bci_best:end) = basal(bci_best:end) *b2_best/b1_best;
[bact, babs] = compute_total_insulin_timecourse(basal, 60*basal_time, k_insulin_best,.001, k_insulin_best);
basal_absorbed = babs(time_start_index:time_end_index) ;
basal_difference = pump_basal_absorbed - basal_absorbed ;
[active_insulin, bolus_absorbed] = compute_total_insulin_timecourse(bolus_schedule, 60*time, k_insulin_best,.001,k_insulin_best);
disp(sprintf('**** new optimum %2.3f found at B1=%2.3f, B2=%2.3f k_carbs=%2.3f, k_insulin=%2.4f, SC=%2.1f, SI=%2.1f, C=%2.2f, BCI=%2.1f *****', rms_best, b1_best/dt, b2_best/dt, k_carbs_best, k_insulin_best, SC_best,SI_best, C_best,dt*(bci_best-basal_change_index)));
[rms, BG_p] = compute_bg_error(BG(1),BG, bolus_absorbed, carbs_metabolized, time, SI_best, basal_difference, SC_best);
figure(1) ;
plot(time*60, BG, 'r') ;
title(sprintf('B1=%2.3f, B2=%2.3f, k=%2.3f, RMS=%2.1f', b1_best/dt, b2_best/dt, k_carbs_best, rms_best)) ;
hold on ;
plot(time*60, BG_p, 'g') ;
ch = get(gca, 'children') ;
set(ch, 'linewidth', 6) ;
hold off;
drawnow ;
figure(2) ;
clf ;
[ax, h1, h2] = plotyy(60*time, bolus_absorbed, 60*time, carbs_metabolized) ;
legend('insulin', 'carbs')
xlabel('time (min)', 'fontsize', 16, 'fontweight', 'bold')
set(ax(1), 'fontsize', 16, 'fontweight', 'bold')
set(ax(2), 'fontsize', 16, 'fontweight', 'bold')
axes(ax(1)) ; ylabel('insulin absorbed (units)') ;
axes(ax(2)) ; ylabel('carbs metabolized (g)') ;
set(get(ax(1), 'children'), 'linewidth', 6) ;
set(get(ax(2), 'children'), 'linewidth', 6) ;
set(ax(1), 'ylim', [0 bolus]) ;
% drawnow ;
end
end
end
end
basal = ones(size(basal_time))*b1_best ;
basal(bci_best:end) = basal(bci_best:end) *b2_best/b1_best;
[bact, babs] = compute_total_insulin_timecourse(basal, 60*basal_time, k_insulin_best,.001, k_insulin_best);
basal_absorbed = babs(time_start_index:time_end_index) ;
[pump_basal_active_long, pump_basal_absorbed_long] = compute_total_insulin_timecourse(pump_basal, 60*basal_time, k_insulin_best,.001,k_insulin_best);
pump_basal_absorbed = pump_basal_absorbed_long(time_start_index:time_end_index);
basal_difference = pump_basal_absorbed - basal_absorbed ;
[active_insulin, bolus_absorbed] = compute_total_insulin_timecourse(bolus_schedule, 60*time, k_insulin_best,.001,k_insulin_best);
carbs_metabolized = predict_carb_uptake(carbs, .0, k_carbs_best, time,carb_delay) ;
[rms, BG_p] = compute_bg_error(BG(1),BG, bolus_absorbed, carbs_metabolized, time, SI_best, basal_difference, SC_best);
figure(1) ;
clf ;
plot(time*60, BG, 'r') ;
title(sprintf('B1=%2.3f, B2=%2.3f, k=%2.3f, RMS=%2.1f', b1_best/dt, b2_best/dt, k_carbs_best, rms_best)) ;
hold on ;
plot(time*60, BG_p, 'g') ;
ch = get(gca, 'children') ;
set(ch, 'linewidth', 6) ;
legend('measured BG', 'model BG')
xlabel('time (min)', 'fontsize', 16, 'fontweight', 'bold')
ylabel('BG (mg/dL)', 'fontsize', 16, 'fontweight', 'bold')
set(gca, 'fontsize', 16, 'fontweight', 'bold')
hold off;
figure(2) ;
clf ;
[ax, h1, h2] = plotyy(time*60, bolus_absorbed, time*60, carbs_metabolized) ;
legend('insulin', 'carbs')
xlabel('time (min)', 'fontsize', 16, 'fontweight', 'bold')
set(ax(1), 'fontsize', 16, 'fontweight', 'bold')
set(ax(2), 'fontsize', 16, 'fontweight', 'bold')
axes(ax(1)) ; ylabel('insulin absorbed (units)') ;
axes(ax(2)) ; ylabel('carbs metabolized (g)') ;
set(get(ax(1), 'children'), 'linewidth', 6) ;
set(get(ax(2), 'children'), 'linewidth', 6) ;
set(ax(1), 'ylim', [0 bolus]) ;
drawnow ;
end
end
delete(pool) ;
disp(sprintf('**** global optimum %2.3f found at B1=%2.3f, B2=%2.3f k_carbs=%2.3f, k_insulin=%2.4f, SC=%2.1f, SI=%2.1f, C=%2.2f, BCI=%2.1f hours, carb delay %d min *****', rms_best, b1_best/dt, b2_best/dt, k_carbs_best, k_insulin_best, SC_best,SI_best, C_best,dt*(bci_best-basal_change_index),carb_delay*60));