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    \textsc{\Huge SMARTer 2020 review}
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            Kacper \textbf{Sokol}---\texttt{ks1591}---4GGK1\\
            \today
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            {Sustainability, Technology and Business\\
             COMSM0006; University of Bristol, UK\\[0.3cm]}
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Uncertainty Analysis
In particular we would like you to evaluate epistemic uncertainty that arises from assumptions applied to the modelling regarding\\
- quality of the data used\\
- model structure\\
- obstacles and enabling factors that might affect the uptake of innovations (financial, technical, social)\\
- implicit assumptions in system boundaries and methodology (for example rebound effect) In order to reduce this uncertainty we’d like you to:\\
- reconstruct the estimates of the abatement potential in a tool\\
- provide a critical analysis of the Smarter 2020 estimates in terms of the four types of uncertainty. This analysis should include identifying the data sources used in the SMARTer 2020 report.

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Master Level Analysis
If your team includes master level students we additionally would like to receive improved estimates for the abatement potential of at least 5 sublevers (or the creation of new sublevers) through
- better data sources
- a more detailed modelling structure\\

Masters level students should also implement their improved abatement potential estimates in the tool.\\

Typically 12 A4 pages, + tool

\section{A}
For each intervention, calculate the 'addressable emissions'. (eg total fuel expended on transportation).
Estimate a savings potential for the technology based on;   Efficiency improvement estimate for the technology. stimate of the rollout of that technology by 2020.
These figures found from the literature, and estimates by experts.

\subsection{eCommerce}
Total emissions from private transport estimated by the IEA to be 5.7GtCO2e in 2020 ->\\
Estimate that 20\% of this is for shopping trips. (Found in Wall Street Journal blog on eCommerce.) ->\\
Assume that 15\% of shopping is replaced by eCommerce in developed countries, and 0\% in developing. ->\\
This gives 7.5\% actual abatement of shopping trips = 0.09 -> \\
Ignore transportation emissions associated with eCommerce delivery.\\
\subsection{Motor speed optimisation}
Total emissions from electrical motors estimated to be 2.92 GtCO2e. ->\\
Expert interviews for SMART2020 estimate that: variable speed control could increase efficiency by 30\%. \& this technology will penetrate 60\% of the market by 2020. ->\\
Hence total reduction potential of 0.53 GtCO2e
\subsection{Integration of Renewables}
IEA scenario estimates that renewables could be responsible for 3.4 GtCO2e savings of emissions by 2020. ->\\
Estimate (how? Unclear.) that 25\% credit for this is given to the role of ICT in integrating this technology into the power mix.

\section{B}

Analysis ignores direct impact of ICT for each solution (though the report does calculate the overall direct impact of ICT.)\\

Analysis (mostly) ignores any rebound effects.\\

This approach 'scoping' --- would not be anywhere near robust enough to assess and monetize the impacts. Very simplistic.\\

IF ICT-enabled projects are to be truly assessed, then clear methodologies are needed for doing this. GeSI and the Carbon Trust are working on such methodologies.\\
















\newpage
\section{Introduction}
\begin{itemize}
\item global warming is society's main problem --- main contribution is GHG --- $CO_2$ is main part of GHG --- caused by burning fossil fuels ---

\item decouple emission growth from economic growth

\item introducing this may lead to additional jobs and money savings

\item they claim total of $\mathbf{9.1} \mathbf{Gt}CO_2\mathbf{e}$ but it only sums up to $\mathbf{9} \mathbf{Gt}CO_2\mathbf{e}$ on the other hand figure shown \emph{Manufacturing: 1.3} but the text only 1.2. And again page 13 sais 1.2. WTF?

\item after introducing ICT we do not take into account its influence on given sector; event thou it introduces additional source of GHG it gives an advantage over potential savings in GHG.

\item the estimates are inacurate as new technologies are created constantly giving rise to new abatement posibillities

\item focus on \emph{Power} end-use sector as it has lion's share
\end{itemize}

{\small
Abbreviations:\\
GHG --- Green House Gases\\
ICT --- Information Communications Tecnology\\
$CO_2e$ --- $CO_2$ equivalents\\
BAU --- business as usual\\
T\&D --- transmission and distribution
}

\section{Levers reconstruction}
\begin{itemize}
\item focus on \emph{Power} end-use sector as it has lion's share

\item can be divided into: \emph{integration of renewables}, and \emph{smart grid enabling}
\item first: Demand management, Time-of-day pricing, Power-load balancing, Power grid optimization
\item second: Integration of renewables in power generation, Virtual power plant, Integration of off-grid renewables and storage

\item In china alone on whole energy sector $390Mt CO_2e$ can be avoided

\item in China government intervention is needed; to low energy prices so people dont wnat to do anything; grid infrastructure update needed to facilitate rapid changes to ICT enabled solutions.
\item thay claim that [power grid optimization] has the greatest potential but do not describe it in any details
\item ``Business case assasment'' --- not clear how they arrive at circle 'filling' and what is the 'equation' to produce the overall score --- no clear weights

\item in China scale of the vertical axis on 'Attractiveness of business model---Fig 42' does not agree with previous estimates

\item lack of strong business cse for majority fo sublevers --- chence government push needed

\item due to government monopoly --- lack of competition --- --- its has been an issue for a long time and people were aware of it nd noothing happened

\item additional peak power plant to support demand, which otherwise stay idle
\item government try to secure peak supply rather than shift demand


\item U.S.A.
\item high energy use, dirty energy mix, old inefficient grid
\item energy is 42\% of all US emissions
\item abatement potiential is $350 MtCO_2e$
\item dirty power mix --- coal is 37\% of total energy generation --- generally $0.67 kgCO_2e / kWh$
\item emision from energy generation decreases as they use less coal and more clean sources like natural gas --- from $4.3 GtCO_2e$ in 2000 to $4.3 GtCO_2e$ in 2010
\item the grid has not been improved so is inefficient
\item domestic oil-and-gas resources as well as low energy taxes cause low energy prices, hence low interest in renevable energies
\item there are little general law driving renewables like ITC and PTC; majority of decision is up to particlar state; howewer net metering policy is used so that you can sell the overproduced energy for retail price to the grid

\item Main obstacle is weak business case for maority of Energy sublevers in USA. Hence government policy are needed and subsidiaries to boost the market.
\item \emph{Integration of renewables in power generation} and \emph{power grid optimization} together yield 82\% of abatement potential chence stress should be but on it
\item not clear how \emph{overall business case} is estimated --- neither majority vote
\item \emph{economics}, \emph{full deployment}, and \emph{aligned incentives} barriers.
\item to introduce they are to high in cost and dont have enough return
\item investment in research to reduce costs---only adresses long term goals; to address short term direct incentives like stronger RPS should be used and rebates for ICT improvements

\item to achieve full pottential --- full deployment has to be done in one run --- \emph{time of day pricing} and \emph{demand management} depend on implementation of smart meters --- without covering whole technology suit they are ineffective --- incentives and penalties to force innovation
\item electricity price market regulations --- dynamic pricing or pricing for carbon


\item GERMANY
\item germany set ambitious GHG abatement plans
\item they also want to phase out nuclear power generation(22\%);they emited $937 MtCO_2e$ in 2010 and 34\% of this was power generation
\item since 1990 german emision is steadly declining despite power sector seeing least improvements and is still dependant on fossil-fuels: f-f generated $347 TWh$ of electricity in 1990 and $350 TWh$ in 2010
\item GErmany introduced \emph{Energiewende}---energy transformiation --- plan to reduce GHG in energy generation by installing renewable energy sources
\item government aims at priducing 35\% of energy from renewable sources by 2010
\item nuclear energy is relatively clean and if phase out will occur and being replaced with renewable energy the overall emmision might not be significantly reduced
\item government has defined clear and ambitious roadmap to reduce emmisions, improve efficiency in energy sector.
\item in first half of 2012 share of renewable energy exceeded 25\%
\item to introduce german's plan of 80\% renewable energy in 2050 they first have to develop each sublever which plays a key role in globally working system
\item total abatement potential in germany is estimated to be $40 MtCO_2e$ in 2020

\item business case describes trial of smart grid with smart meters to deliver more detailed consumptions patterns to customers; it assumes that consumer could identify the appliance which uses the most energy --- CAN BE QUITE HARD AS YOU GET READINGS FROM THE HOME NOT PARTICULAR APPLIANCES
\item they could also avoid energy consumptions during peak hours --- HOW ? STOP USING IT?
\item it benefits generation as they can predict the usage
\item they claim that average household could save 4\% of energy with smart meter --- NO REFERENCE FOR THE SAVING --- according to BBS --- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29125809 --- THE SAVINGS ARE ONLY 2\%


\item INDIA
\item the government plan is to reduce emissions from 2005 between 20 and 25 percent by 2020
\item emission from power sector grew from $355 MtCO_2e$ in 1994 to $719 MtCO_2e$ in 2007
\item as India is developing and wealh of people is increasing demand for electrical appliances like TVs, air-cons, is increasing
\item the main problems in power sector as identified as: inefficiency of power grid and coal as a main source for electricity production
\item T\&D loss is estimated to be 22\% and in some places reach 50\% --- THE SOURCE CAN BE FOUND BUT THE DATA IS FROM 1999 --- A BIT TOO OLD??
\item common electricity theft --- most often in rural areas
\item electricity generation highly dependant on fossil fuel: 65(68)--84\% of coal, natural gas, and oil; renewables excludign hydro approx. 2\%(2--12\%) --- SOURCE AVAILABLE BUT HARD TO FIND THIS PARTICULAR FIGURES????
\item india introduced \emph{The National Action Plan on Climate Change}(NAPCC) in 2008 it aims at improving indias emissions by 2017 with one of the components being \emph{National Solar Mission} which goal is to produce $1000 MW/year$ PV power. And government hopes to save $10000 MW/year$with appliances modernisation --- NOT ALL HOMES MAY HAVE MONEY TO UPDATE
\item high output from ICT of India is blame on inefficiency of power sector --- SO POTENTIAL OVERLAY???
\item in India there's limited grid connectivity hence a lot of cell phone towers are powered by diesel generators; 60\% of 400000 towers run on diesel leading to $10 MtCO_2$ annually; in April 2011 TRAI mandated 50\% of rural and 20\% of urban towers run on hybrid power: renewables+grid power by 2015; and 75\% of rural and 33\% of urban by 2020.
\item power sector is largest contributor to India's emission
\item Power sector is the largest contributor to India's GHG emission and is projected to grow even further as the country is in phase of economic growth
\item government plans to increase renewable energy share 1\% per year to reach 15\% by 2020
\item increase wind capacity form $13900MW$ in 2011 to $27300MW$ in 2017; increase PV capacity from $35 MW$ today (2012) to $4035 MW$ by 2017 which is more than 4 times the plan of NAPCC
\item in 1994 power sector emitted $353 MtCO_2e$, in 2007 $719 MtCO_2e$
\item ICT enabled solutions for power sector offer $143 MtCO_2e$ with main contribution from optimization of power grid and the integration of renewables --- IN TEXT IT IS SAID $143 MtCO_2e$ BUT FIGURE 83 STATES $141 MtCO_2e$; ALL SUBLEVERS SUM UP TO $142 MtCO_2e$ WTF???????

\item the best to invest in are power grid optimization and integration of renewables
\item the smart grid which is needed for majority of power sublevers is expected to be unavailable by 2020 --- SO WHY DO THE CALCULATIONS LIKE THIS IF THEY ARE AWARE OF PROBLEMS
\item time-of-day pricing is independant of smart grid depoyment and can be used instantly to shif peak demand
\item people may not be able to benefit from ICT enabled power infrastructure as only 7.5\% of indians reguraly use internet
\item generaly teh realisationof plan is ulikely
\item the power network in India is fractured with 78 different utilities --- hence difficult to integrate and enforce ICT imporovemetns
\item to introduce these changes 75\% of energy (should be)/(is) produced by state-run electircity distributors --- NOT REALLY POSSIBLE WITH CURRENT STATE
\item standarise the grid
\item start to pursue power tehft in rural areas
\item currently government does not pay for the power it uses
\item state run power sector has -18\% return rate
\item lasck of awareness
\item a ministry of power introduced Restrutured Accelerated Power Developement and Reforms Priogram (R-APDRP) to promote smart meter deployment.
\item producing energy from PV can be as high as 20 times more expensive than from coal
\item lack of ICT abatement awareness
\item the case study shows green power smart grids powering villages --- it is a good idea but the people using it are not poewr hungry hence it works

\item SUMMARY OF ALL 4 COUNTRIES
\item sum of all 4 countries is: $143+40+350+390=923MtCO_2e \approx 0.92 GtCO_2e$
\item table without number in appendix describing total power abatement by sector gives: $0.01+0.21+0.38+0.33+0.85+0.04+0.20 = 2.02 GtCO_2e$ hence rest of the world can save the same amount on the ICT enabled power as these four countries --- IS IT CORRECT???

\end{itemize}

\subsection{Demand management}
\subsubsection{Review}
\begin{itemize}
\item WHAT IS?
\item it is a mechanism to manage electricity consumption in response to supply conditions
\item targeted at reducing non-base load electricity

\item CHINA
\item iN china we can do $4 Mt CO_2e$
\item POTENTIAL OVELAY WITH [TIME-OF-DAY PRICING] AND [POWER-LOAD BALLANCING]
\item reduction of peak load electricity --- IN OTHER SUBLEVERS HAS BEEN ADDRESSED ALREADY
\item thay claim beacause of great government involvement it can be reduced by law --- not clear how

\item the USA
\item in USA potential of $21 MtCO_2e$
\item reduction of peak load electricity --- HOW TO DO IT?
\item it can be done dependant on: smart meters / smart grid infrastructure / and changing customer behaviour --- CHANGING CUSTOMER BEHAVIOUR MAY BE QUITE HARD TO ACHIEVE AND CHALLENGING NOT EASLY PREDICTABLE RESULTS --- POTENTIAL OVERLAY WITH smart grid(PPOWER GRID OPTIMIZATION) SUBLEVER

\item GERMANY
\item we can do $0.3 Mt CO_2e$
\item has small potential --- not really said how to achieve

\item INDIA
\item we can do $1 Mt CO_2e$
\item here it is called \emph{Demand response}
\item reduction of peak load electricity
\item lacking infrastructure to play significant role


\end{itemize}
\subsubsection{Improvement}

\subsection{Time-of-day pricing}
\subsubsection{Review}
\begin{itemize}
\item WHAT IS?
\item is communication of different pricing for electricity for different times of the day between supplier and consumers to allow later to adjust they consumption during peak demands and reduce overall demands on the grid
\item targeted at reducing non-base load electricity


\item iN china we can do $79 Mt CO_2e$
\item \emph{innovative} pricing mechanisms---NOT SPECIFIED WHAT MECHANISMS--- like time of day pricing; variable electricity tarrifs constructed based on consumption time; are used to shift demand from peak to off-peak hours
\item they claim above countr-measurements could prevent supply shortage during peak hours and that \emph{total power demand} will decline --- WHY IT SHOYLD DECLINE IF THEY ONLY WANT TO SHIFT THE USAGE????
\item potential overlay with  [power-load balancing]\\ref\{...\}
\item reduce emissions because it will be more equal through day. to this end upgrade infrastructure and introduce dynamic pricing


\item the USA
\item in USA potential of $22 MtCO_2e$
\item introduce proper electricity price market --- to reduce demands on the grid and increase number of base-load --- NOT CLEAR HOW TO REDUCE THE DEMANDS IN PEAK TIMES...

\item GERMANY
\item we can do $3.2 Mt CO_2e$
\item this abatement higly depends on installation of smart meters --- which were tried to install for a long time and failed --- weak business case
\item DOES THIS ABATEMENT POTENTAIL ASSUMES SUCCESSFULL INSTALATION OF SMART METERS??????
\item installing smart meter is part of grid optimization???? hence potential overlay

\item shifting peak consumption to base-load
\item since 2011 variable tarrifs are offered


\item INDIA
\item we can do $13.8 Mt CO_2e$
\item lowering the peak demand especially in urban areas caused air-con use
\item removing highly polluting 'peaker plants'--- WHAT'S THAT, WHY TO REMOVE
\item it requires advanced ICT-enabled smart grid to coordinate supply and demand fluctuations and prices --- POTENTIAL OVERLAY AND HIGH DEPENDANCE ON UPGRADING GRID INFRASTRUCTURE
\item it would encourage to use energy in off-peak hours hence decrease extra capacity needed and make effective use of peak-plants which are highly polluting


\end{itemize}
\subsubsection{Improvement}

\subsection{Power-load balancing}
\subsubsection{Review}
\begin{itemize}
\item WHAT IS?
\item various techniques to store overhead of produced electricit during low demand and release it during peak hours
\item targeted at reducing non-base load electricity


\item iN china we can do $9 Mt CO_2e$
\item potential overlay with  [time of day pricing]\\ref\{...\}
\item Case study states that suppliers could quickly and reliably drive down 15-30\% the consumer's overall power consumption --- NOT CLEAR HOW, ESPECIALLLY THAT CUSTOMERS DIDNT COMPROMISE CRITICAL OPERATIONS
\item not major field for improvement in China --- they claim that it requires high energy prices to make the economics favourable --- IT KIND OF CONTRADICTS DYNAMIC ENERGY PRICING
\item raising prices might not be a good idea

\item the USA
\item in USA potential of $13 MtCO_2e$
\item they claim it has large abatement potential but is technologically limited: WHAT IS THIS ABATEMENT POTENTIAL AND WHAT TECHNOLOGIES ARE LACKING TO MAKE IT HAPPEN
\item it is highly dependant on regulatory changes --- HOW DEPENDANT??

\item GERMANY
\item we can do $0.2 Mt CO_2e$
\item ballance peak demand via off-peak storage
\item low potentail as efficient hydro and other pumped storage exsists


\item INDIA
\item we can do $9.6 Mt CO_2e$
\item reducing total required capacity
\item really useful if renewables scaled to 15\%
\item it requires advanced ICT-enabled smart grid infrastructure to coordinate supply and demand to power plant
\item store energy during off=peak and realease it on-peak --- good timing is needed
\item power laod ballancing would prevent using highly polluting peak-[lants by releasing off-peak energy instead of using them

\end{itemize}
\subsubsection{Improvement}

\subsection{Power grid optimization}
\subsubsection{Review}
\begin{itemize}
\item WHAT IS?
\item using ICT to gather and act on information to optimize infrastructure and reduce inefficiencies, detect power theft of transmission and distribution
\item targeted at reducing emission of power generation


\item CHINA
\item iN china we can do $143 Mt CO_2e$
\item minimising distribution losses by optimizing and ICT'ing grid infrastructure
\item they estimate it on 'recent efforts'...
\item improve efficiency of distribuitons and minimise losses --- how and where ICT
\item it bases on government's word that it will ICT technology to optimize grid

\item the USA
\item in USA potential of $91 MtCO_2e$
\item THEY GENERALLY SAY THAT: optimising power grid is essential for reducing transmission and distribution losses, and reducing reliability concerns --- IT SEEMS TO BE OBVIOUS FROM THE TITLE OF THE SECTION
\item in this sector ICT is important from both communication and optimisation perspective: monitoring the grid and providing real-time optimisation for its use --- BUT HOW TO OPTIMISE, AND WHAT MONIORING GIVES AS IT DOES NOT DIRECTLY REDUCE THE EMMISION
\item improve ageing infrastructure
\item in the study case: they can install all the meters and sensors but to make actual improvements you need to analyse big data, which they may not be capable of --- HOW ABOUT RENTING A CLOUD??
\item in the ``Echelon'' study case: modular processing over big data centre approach; Echelon devices smartly filter and preprocess data before sending them for analysis chence cut the amount for analysis

\item GERMANY
\item we can do $5.71 Mt CO_2e$
\item relatively efficient and modern power grid --- but losses of transmission and distribution cannot be avoided
\item smarter 2020 assumes 6\% power loss --- WHERE FROM ?????? --- out of blue --- reference 156 - "The energy and Resource Institute" --- http://www.teriin.org/upfiles/pub/papers/ft33.pdf gives apparently 4\%
\item so abatement potential potentially smaller

\item INDIA
\item we can do $91.4 Mt CO_2e$
\item using ICT technologies to detect and reduce massive T\&D losses (22\%)
\item if transmission losses are reduced by $\frac{1}{3}$ T\&D losses would still be high by international standards but would yield $91.4 MtCO_2e$ of abatement --- SO THE ASSUMPTION IS THAT THEY WILL BE IMPROVED TO REDUCE THE LOSSES BY THIRD PART
\item ICT enabled grid would gather information on suppliers, consumers behaviour and grid inefficiencies to improfe overall efficiency
\item information obtained from smart grid like state of power generators, transmitters, and distributos can be analysed to address areas where inefficiencies of T\&D inefficiencies arise
\item the first suggested step is to deploy smart meters (easiest to apply) to identify where transmission losses occur and potential power theft

\end{itemize}
\subsubsection{Improvement}

\subsection{Integration of renewables in power generation}
\subsubsection{Review}
\begin{itemize}
\item WHAT IS?
\item ICT technologies that allow to integrate the off-grid renewables and more efficient use of renewables
\item targeted at reducing electricity generation emissions


\item CHINA
\item iN china we can do $153 Mt CO_2e$
\item this can be cut by investing in renevable sources of energy and rapid expansion
\item increasing the use of carbon free energy --- DESPITE BEING MAJOR FACTOR IN CHINA IT HAS SMALL EXPLANATION AND GENERAL NAMES DROPPED ONLY
\item it has strong government support but technical bariers like introducing ICT enabled smart-grid has to be introduced first --- POTENTIAL OVERLAY WITH [power grid optimization]

\item the USA
\item in USA potential of $197 MtCO_2e$
\item lion's share --- nearly half of the abatement potential in energy --- I would say more than half 56%
\item most of renevables are intermittent --- generation fluctuates based on weather or time of day --- its an issue as the supply must meet the load perfectly --- ICT can play important role into integrating these --- BUT HOW??????
\item argumant that ``ageing and efficient''(possibly error \[in\]efficient) grid makes this balancing more dificult --- POSSIBLE OVERLAY WITH LOAD BALANCING
\item ICT can improve integration by improving communication between grid operator and renewable power plant, analyzing weather for predicting future generation, and complex data analysis and optimisation --- BUT HOW??? --- WHAT OPTIMISATION --- COMPLEX ANALYSIS OF WHAT --- THE PRODUCTION CAN BE PREDICTED BASED ON WEATHER CONDITIONS SO WHAT DOES COMMUNICATION GIVE TO US???
\item replace grid electricity with carbon-free electricity --- depends on RPS at state level
\item adapting grid to intermittent generation and new transmission
\item customers can sell the overhead of energy to the grid but the prices are very low
\item it is also not profiteble due to large upfront cost

\item GERMANY
\item we can do $28.8 Mt CO_2e$
\item they have plan to introduce new renewable sources but simultaneously phase out nuclear energy --- ICT will be needed to integrate these renewables into the grid and maximize its efficiency
\item but possibly renewables will replace only phased-out nuclear hence have no influence of fossil-fuel production --- only little improvement
\item IT'S UNCLEAR --- GERMANY STAT THAT !THEY WILL! CHANGE NUCLEAR FOR RENEVABLA SO THIS ABATEMENT POTENTIAL IS ONLY THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NUCLEAR AND RENEWABLE OR THEY ASSUME THAT NUCLEAR WILL REMAIN AND IT WIL BE FOSSIL-FUEL REPLACED BY RENEWABLE

\item increasing and optimizaiton of emmision-neutral power use
\item necessary due to nuclear phase-out

\item LACK OF CHEAP STORAGE FOR ENERGY PRODUCED BY PV.
\item need for nort-south transmission lines and large-scale energy storage


\item INDIA
\item we can do $23.8 Mt CO_2e$
\item large unused solar and wind potential hence high reduction possibilities
\item attractive option for unconnected to grid people --- many of them
\item they predict that demand for electricity will rise by 91.7\% between 2009 and 2020
\item renewables may play important role for unconnected to grid rural areas
\item but production is decoupled with highest demand
\item ICT technology can be used to synchronise supply and demand

\end{itemize}
\subsubsection{Improvement}

\subsection{Virtual power plant}
\subsubsection{Review}
\begin{itemize}
\item WHAT IS?
\item ICT technology that anables and collectively run runs of distributed generation installations e.g.\ of one neighbourhood
\item targeted at reducing electricity generation emissions


\item CHINA
\item iN china we can do $2 Mt CO_2e$
\item requires building advanced-grid-infrastructure which are not YET available --- few details????
\item ITS HARD TO IMPLEMENT DUE TO MONOPOLY --- NOT CLEAR HOW SMALL LOCAL GRID OF RENEVABLES CAN BE HARDMED BY MONOPOLY

\item the USA
\item in USA potential of $6 MtCO_2e$
\item once again dependant on government regulations and advanced smart grid technology --- BUT HOW, WHAT REGULATIONS, WHAT TECHNOLOGY

\item GERMANY
\item we can do $1.7 Mt CO_2e$

\item it requires advanced grid infrastructure which germany is lacking
\item limited impact on direct emission reduction


\item INDIA
\item NOT MENTIONED IN FIGURE 83 --- INCONSISTENCY

\end{itemize}
\subsubsection{Improvement}

\subsection{Integration of off-grid renewables and storage}
\subsubsection{Review}
\begin{itemize}
\item WHAT IS?
\item ICT technology that enables to integrate storage into off-grid power loads
\item targeted to reduce emission form off-grid power generators (e.g.\ diesel)


\item iN china we can do $1 Mt CO_2e$; its called here \emph{island grid} --- inconsistency
\item they claim it has small potential due to number of diesel-generators and off-grid applications. DOES IT MEAN THAT THERE IS SMALL NUMBER OF OFF-GRID GENERATORS HENCE NO ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT OR IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO REPLACE THIS GENERATORS --- NOT CLEAR
\item THE NAME SUGGEST THEY ARE MAINLY ON ISLAND --- IS IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE THEM A CABLE RO WHAT

\item COUNTRY ANALYSIS
\item despite being referenced to \citep{pieper2011revisiting} it does not contain the china off grid use of $78 MW$ of power capacity
\item same thinking like above using tool we get: $0.02 MtCO_2e$ emission which is significantly different form presented value of $0.55 MtCO_2e$ or $0.5 MtCO_2e$ which is unconsistent as it sais 100\% reduction



\item the USA
\item we can do $0 Mt CO_2e$ --- irrelevant
\item in USA potential of --- NOT RELEVANT!!!
\item this sublever is not important in US due to widely available grid-connected electricity

\item GERMANY
\item we can do $0 Mt CO_2e$ --- irrelevant
\item reliable grid available videly hence none impact


\item INDIA
\item we can do $2 Mt CO_2e$
\item called here \emph{Integration of storage into off-grid applications}
\item niche applicaiton like powering cell phone towers currently powered by diesel generators and emiting today (2012) $6 MtCO_2$
\item COUNTRY ANALYSIS
\item despite being referenced to \citep{pieper2011revisiting} it does not contain the india off grid use of $290MW$
\item same thinking like above using tool we get: $0.08 MtCO_2e$ / $0.09 MtCO_2e$ emission which is significantly different form presented value of $2.0 MtCO_2e$


\item OVERALL ANALYSIS
\item \citep{pieper2011revisiting} is referenced as a source of $600GW$ of diesel generators which is in turn referenced there to \emph{Powers System Research} website \url{http://www.powersys.com/}
\item also \citep{pieper2011revisiting} say that ``running an average of only 5 percent of the time (that is, approximately 400 hours per year)'' WHICH IS NOT REFERENCED IN ANY WAY; FURTHERMORE 5\% IS 438 HOURS A YEAR
\item power-sys seems to be selling power generators so maybe the study is based only on their power generators
\item they release report called \emph{PowerTracker International} which reveiws developments and demand for all engine-powered generator sets across 12 major markets.
\item the report is only available to subscriber hence source cannot be verified
\item  This is the cumulated market for 1980 to 2010, representing an installed capacity of diesel generators with a nominal power of $500 kW$ or greater and assuming a 30-year generator lifetime. --- THIS STUDY DISREGARDS ALL GENERATORS BELOW $500 kW$ HENCE NOT COMPLETE
\item this are only island generators how about backup and peak generators?
\item this row of table breaks out of convention: in potential savings giving number of hours a year generators are used; in addressable emission giving overall poewr of fleet of installed diesels generators; and in abatement potential giving abatement potential
\item it is not clear how the abatement ptential has been calated as there is missing conversion factor of emission per kWh produced 

\item it is assumed here that whole off-grid generation can be replaced

\end{itemize}
\subsubsection{Improvement}
to reconstruct the above calculations I found found in \citep{iea2012co2} that the energy generators fueled by diese give $0.69 kgCO_2$ per $1kWh$\\

using the tool with the above data I can reconstruct it as: $0.17 GtCO_2e$ in case of 400 hours a year, and $0.18 GtCO_2e$ in case of 5\% of the year


\section{Conclusions}
Based on the assessment of the abatement potential we then require from you an interpretation of the report for our department in which you summarise your analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the SMARTer2020 report and identify possible conclusions and actions for policy making. Among other things our policy analysts are interested in areas where financial incentives to the uptake of innovations are lacking and where government intervention might be required.\\

They can collect the data but without datacentres and tools they won't be able to make any sense of them and use them to improve the grid\\

They are fucking inconsistent with sublever naming from country to country\\

Different accuracy of estimates along the report: once one decimal place, on others none\\

Majority of sublevers presented in power sector is highly dependant on advanced ICT-enabled smart grid infrastructure so if this fails all the rest is in danger of failing and furthermore there is potential overlay in sublevers\\

\emph{Business case figures} --- how are they constructed not mentioned in report and how arre \emph{Overall business case callculated}\\

Really poor references --- FUCKING POOR

\section{Tool}
Ipython julia with markup+latex\\
Make sure, I can follow where assumptions came from

\section{Summary}

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