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auto publishing updates to notebooks
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BCG_complete_mkts.ipynb

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}
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],
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"metadata": {
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"date": 1619402672.4190016,
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"date": 1619661940.1660957,
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"filename": "BCG_complete_mkts.rst",
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"kernelspec": {
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"display_name": "Python",

BCG_incomplete_mkts.ipynb

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}
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],
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"metadata": {
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"date": 1619402672.684707,
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"date": 1619661940.5953467,
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"filename": "BCG_incomplete_mkts.rst",
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"kernelspec": {
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"display_name": "Python",

about_lectures.ipynb

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}
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],
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"metadata": {
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"date": 1619402672.8388484,
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"date": 1619661940.744541,
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"filename": "about_lectures.rst",
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"kernelspec": {
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"display_name": "Python",

additive_functionals.ipynb

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}
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],
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"metadata": {
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"date": 1619402672.9367144,
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"date": 1619661940.8426106,
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"filename": "additive_functionals.rst",
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"kernelspec": {
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"display_name": "Python",

amss.ipynb

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@@ -159,7 +159,7 @@
159159
"\n",
160160
"AMSS allow the government to issue only one-period risk-free debt each period.\n",
161161
"\n",
162-
"Ruling out complete markets in this way is a step in the direction of making total tax collections behave more like that prescribed in [[Bar79]](https://python-programming.quantecon.org/zreferences.html#barro1979) than they do in [[LS83]](https://python-programming.quantecon.org/zreferences.html#lucasstokey1983)."
162+
"Ruling out complete markets in this way is a step in the direction of making total tax collections behave more like that prescribed in Robert Barro (1979) [[Bar79]](https://python-programming.quantecon.org/zreferences.html#barro1979) than they do in Lucas and Stokey (1983) [[LS83]](https://python-programming.quantecon.org/zreferences.html#lucasstokey1983)."
163163
]
164164
},
165165
{
@@ -186,14 +186,14 @@
186186
"$$\n",
187187
"\\begin{aligned}\n",
188188
"b_t(s^{t-1})\n",
189-
" & = \\tau^n_t(s^t) n_t(s^t) - g_t(s_t) - T_t(s^t) +\n",
189+
" & = \\tau^n_t(s^t) n_t(s^t) - g(s_t) - T_t(s^t) +\n",
190190
" {b_{t+1}(s^t) \\over R_t(s^t )}\n",
191191
" \\\\\n",
192-
" & \\equiv z(s^t) + {b_{t+1}(s^t) \\over R_t(s^t )},\n",
192+
" & \\equiv z_t(s^t) + {b_{t+1}(s^t) \\over R_t(s^t )},\n",
193193
"\\end{aligned} \\tag{4}\n",
194194
"$$\n",
195195
"\n",
196-
"where $ z(s^t) $ is the net-of-interest government surplus.\n",
196+
"where $ z_t(s^t) $ is the net-of-interest government surplus.\n",
197197
"\n",
198198
"To rule out Ponzi schemes, we assume that the government is subject to a **natural debt limit** (to be discussed in a forthcoming lecture).\n",
199199
"\n",
@@ -212,16 +212,16 @@
212212
"\n",
213213
"<a id='equation-ts-gov-wo2'></a>\n",
214214
"$$\n",
215-
"b_t(s^{t-1}) = z(s^t) + \\beta \\sum_{s^{t+1}\\vert s^t} \\pi_{t+1}(s^{t+1} | s^t)\n",
215+
"b_t(s^{t-1}) = z_t(s^t) + \\beta \\sum_{s^{t+1}\\vert s^t} \\pi_{t+1}(s^{t+1} | s^t)\n",
216216
" { u_c(s^{t+1}) \\over u_c(s^{t}) } \\; b_{t+1}(s^t) \\tag{5}\n",
217217
"$$\n",
218218
"\n",
219-
"Components of $ z(s^t) $ on the right side depend on $ s^t $, but the left side is required to depend only\n",
219+
"Components of $ z_t(s^t) $ on the right side depend on $ s^t $, but the left side is required to depend only\n",
220220
"on $ s^{t-1} $ .\n",
221221
"\n",
222222
"**This is what it means for one-period government debt to be risk-free**.\n",
223223
"\n",
224-
"Therefore, the sum on the right side of equation [(5)](#equation-ts-gov-wo2) also has to depend only on $ s^{t-1} $.\n",
224+
"Therefore, the right side of equation [(5)](#equation-ts-gov-wo2) also has to depend only on $ s^{t-1} $.\n",
225225
"\n",
226226
"This requirement will give rise to **measurability constraints** on the Ramsey allocation to be discussed soon.\n",
227227
"\n",
@@ -230,13 +230,13 @@
230230
"particular realization $ s_{t} $) we get\n",
231231
"\n",
232232
"$$\n",
233-
"b_t(s^{t-1}) = z(s^t) + \\sum_{s^{t+1}\\vert s^t} \\beta \\pi_{t+1}(s^{t+1} | s^t)\n",
233+
"b_t(s^{t-1}) = z_t(s^t) + \\sum_{s^{t+1}\\vert s^t} \\beta \\pi_{t+1}(s^{t+1} | s^t)\n",
234234
" { u_c(s^{t+1}) \\over u_c(s^{t}) }\n",
235-
"\\, \\left[z(s^{t+1}) + {b_{t+2}(s^{t+1}) \\over R_{t+1}(s^{t+1})}\\right]\n",
235+
"\\, \\left[z_{t+1}(s^{t+1}) + {b_{t+2}(s^{t+1}) \\over R_{t+1}(s^{t+1})}\\right]\n",
236236
"$$\n",
237237
"\n",
238238
"After making similar repeated substitutions for all future occurrences of\n",
239-
"government indebtedness, and by invoking the natural debt limit, we\n",
239+
"government indebtedness, and by invoking a natural debt limit, we\n",
240240
"arrive at:\n",
241241
"\n",
242242
"\n",
@@ -245,7 +245,7 @@
245245
"\\begin{aligned}\n",
246246
"b_t(s^{t-1})\n",
247247
" &= \\sum_{j=0}^\\infty \\sum_{s^{t+j} | s^t} \\beta^j \\pi_{t+j}(s^{t+j} | s^t)\n",
248-
" { u_c(s^{t+j}) \\over u_c(s^{t}) } \\;z(s^{t+j})\n",
248+
" { u_c(s^{t+j}) \\over u_c(s^{t}) } \\;z_{t+j}(s^{t+j})\n",
249249
" \\end{aligned} \\tag{6}\n",
250250
"$$\n",
251251
"\n",
@@ -258,17 +258,17 @@
258258
"- use the household’s first-order condition $ 1-\\tau^n_t(s^t)= u_{\\ell}(s^t) /u_c(s^t) $ to eliminate the labor tax rate \n",
259259
"\n",
260260
"\n",
261-
"so that we can express the net-of-interest government surplus $ z(s^t) $ as\n",
261+
"so that we can express the net-of-interest government surplus $ z_t(s^t) $ as\n",
262262
"\n",
263263
"\n",
264264
"<a id='equation-amss-44-2'></a>\n",
265265
"$$\n",
266-
"z(s^t)\n",
267-
" = \\left[1 - {u_{\\ell}(s^t) \\over u_c(s^t)}\\right] \\left[c_t(s^t)+g_t(s_t)\\right]\n",
268-
" -g_t(s_t) - T_t(s^t)\\,. \\tag{7}\n",
266+
"z_t(s^t)\n",
267+
" = \\left[1 - {u_{\\ell}(s^t) \\over u_c(s^t)}\\right] \\left[c_t(s^t)+g(s_t)\\right]\n",
268+
" -g(s_t) - T_t(s^t)\\,. \\tag{7}\n",
269269
"$$\n",
270270
"\n",
271-
"If we substitute appropriate versions of the right side of [(7)](#equation-amss-44-2) for $ z(s^{t+j}) $ into equation [(6)](#equation-ts-gov-wo3),\n",
271+
"If we substitute appropriate versions of the right side of [(7)](#equation-amss-44-2) for $ z_{t+j}(s^{t+j}) $ into equation [(6)](#equation-ts-gov-wo3),\n",
272272
"we obtain a sequence of *implementability constraints* on a Ramsey allocation in an AMSS economy.\n",
273273
"\n",
274274
"Expression [(6)](#equation-ts-gov-wo3) at time $ t=0 $ and initial state $ s^0 $\n",
@@ -278,7 +278,7 @@
278278
"<a id='equation-ts-gov-wo4'></a>\n",
279279
"$$\n",
280280
"b_0(s^{-1}) = \\mathbb E_0 \\sum_{j=0}^\\infty \\beta^j\n",
281-
" { u_c(s^{j}) \\over u_c(s^{0}) } \\;z(s^{j}) \\tag{8}\n",
281+
" { u_c(s^{j}) \\over u_c(s^{0}) } \\;z_j(s^{j}) \\tag{8}\n",
282282
"$$\n",
283283
"\n",
284284
"Indeed, it was the *only* implementability constraint there.\n",
@@ -289,7 +289,7 @@
289289
"<a id='equation-ts-gov-wo4a'></a>\n",
290290
"$$\n",
291291
"b_t(s^{t-1}) = \\mathbb E_t \\sum_{j=0}^\\infty \\beta^j\n",
292-
" { u_c(s^{t+j}) \\over u_c(s^{t}) } \\;z(s^{t+j}) \\tag{9}\n",
292+
" { u_c(s^{t+j}) \\over u_c(s^{t}) } \\;z_{t+j}(s^{t+j}) \\tag{9}\n",
293293
"$$\n",
294294
"\n",
295295
"Equation [(9)](#equation-ts-gov-wo4a) must hold for each $ s^t $ for each $ t \\geq 1 $."
@@ -321,7 +321,7 @@
321321
"$$\n",
322322
"\\max_{\\{c_t(s^t),b_{t+1}(s^t)\\}}\n",
323323
"\\mathbb E_0 \\sum_{t=0}^\\infty \\beta^t\n",
324-
" u\\left(c_t(s^t),1-c_t(s^t)-g_t(s_t)\\right)\n",
324+
" u\\left(c_t(s^t),1-c_t(s^t)-g(s_t)\\right)\n",
325325
"$$\n",
326326
"\n",
327327
"where the maximization is subject to\n",
@@ -330,7 +330,7 @@
330330
"<a id='equation-amss-44'></a>\n",
331331
"$$\n",
332332
"\\mathbb E_{0} \\sum_{j=0}^\\infty \\beta^j\n",
333-
" { u_c(s^{j}) \\over u_c(s^{0}) } \\;z(s^{j}) \\geq b_0(s^{-1}) \\tag{10}\n",
333+
" { u_c(s^{j}) \\over u_c(s^{0}) } \\;z_j(s^{j}) \\geq b_0(s^{-1}) \\tag{10}\n",
334334
"$$\n",
335335
"\n",
336336
"and\n",
@@ -340,7 +340,7 @@
340340
"$$\n",
341341
"\\mathbb E_{t} \\sum_{j=0}^\\infty \\beta^j\n",
342342
" { u_c(s^{t+j}) \\over u_c(s^{t}) } \\;\n",
343-
" z(s^{t+j}) = b_t(s^{t-1})\n",
343+
" z_{t+j}(s^{t+j}) = b_t(s^{t-1})\n",
344344
" \\quad \\forall \\, t, s^t \\tag{11}\n",
345345
"$$\n",
346346
"\n",
@@ -369,7 +369,7 @@
369369
" &\\;\\geq\\; (\\leq)\\;\\, 0 \\quad \\text{if the constraint binds in the following direction }\n",
370370
" \\\\\n",
371371
" & \\mathbb E_{t} \\sum_{j=0}^\\infty \\beta^j\n",
372-
" { u_c(s^{t+j}) \\over u_c(s^{t}) } \\;z(s^{t+j}) \\;\\geq \\;(\\leq)\\;\\, b_t(s^{t-1})\n",
372+
" { u_c(s^{t+j}) \\over u_c(s^{t}) } \\;z_{t+j}(s^{t+j}) \\;\\geq \\;(\\leq)\\;\\, b_t(s^{t-1})\n",
373373
"\\end{aligned}\n",
374374
"$$\n",
375375
"\n",
@@ -399,14 +399,14 @@
399399
"$$\n",
400400
"\\begin{aligned}\n",
401401
" J &= \\mathbb E_{0} \\sum_{t=0}^\\infty \\beta^t\n",
402-
" \\biggl\\{ u\\left(c_t(s^t), 1-c_t(s^t)-g_t(s_t)\\right)\\\\\n",
402+
" \\biggl\\{ u\\left(c_t(s^t), 1-c_t(s^t)-g(s_t)\\right)\\\\\n",
403403
" & \\qquad + \\gamma_t(s^t) \\Bigl[ \\mathbb E_{t} \\sum_{j=0}^\\infty \\beta^j\n",
404-
" u_c(s^{t+j}) \\,z(s^{t+j}) - u_c(s^{t}) \\,b_t(s^{t-1}) \\biggr\\}\n",
404+
" u_c(s^{t+j}) \\,z_{t+j}(s^{t+j}) - u_c(s^{t}) \\,b_t(s^{t-1}) \\biggr\\}\n",
405405
" \\\\\n",
406406
" &= \\mathbb E_{0} \\sum_{t=0}^\\infty \\beta^t\n",
407-
" \\biggl\\{ u\\left(c_t(s^t), 1-c_t(s^t)-g_t(s_t)\\right)\n",
407+
" \\biggl\\{ u\\left(c_t(s^t), 1-c_t(s^t)-g(s_t)\\right)\n",
408408
" \\\\\n",
409-
" & \\qquad + \\Psi_t(s^t)\\, u_c(s^{t}) \\,z(s^{t}) -\n",
409+
" & \\qquad + \\Psi_t(s^t)\\, u_c(s^{t}) \\,z_t(s^{t}) -\n",
410410
" \\gamma_t(s^t)\\, u_c(s^{t}) \\, b_t(s^{t-1}) \\biggr\\}\n",
411411
"\\end{aligned} \\tag{12}\n",
412412
"$$\n",
@@ -433,7 +433,7 @@
433433
"$$\n",
434434
"\\begin{aligned}\n",
435435
" u_c(s^t)-u_{\\ell}(s^t) &+ \\Psi_t(s^t)\\left\\{ \\left[\n",
436-
" u_{cc}(s^t) - u_{c\\ell}(s^{t})\\right]z(s^{t}) +\n",
436+
" u_{cc}(s^t) - u_{c\\ell}(s^{t})\\right]z_t(s^{t}) +\n",
437437
" u_{c}(s^{t})\\,z_c(s^{t}) \\right\\}\n",
438438
" \\\\\n",
439439
" & \\hspace{35mm} - \\gamma_t(s^t)\\left[\n",
@@ -449,7 +449,7 @@
449449
"\\mathbb E_{t} \\left[\\gamma_{t+1}(s^{t+1})\\,u_c(s^{t+1})\\right] = 0 \\tag{15}\n",
450450
"$$\n",
451451
"\n",
452-
"If we substitute $ z(s^t) $ from [(7)](#equation-amss-44-2) and its derivative\n",
452+
"If we substitute $ z_t(s^t) $ from [(7)](#equation-amss-44-2) and its derivative\n",
453453
"$ z_c(s^t) $ into the first-order condition [(14)](#equation-amss-foc-a), we find two\n",
454454
"differences from the corresponding condition for the optimal allocation\n",
455455
"in a Lucas-Stokey economy with state-contingent government debt.\n",
@@ -686,8 +686,7 @@
686686
"where $ R_t(s^t) $ is the gross risk-free rate of interest between $ t $\n",
687687
"and $ t+1 $ at history $ s^t $ and $ T_t(s^t) $ are non-negative transfers.\n",
688688
"\n",
689-
"Throughout this lecture, we shall set transfers to zero (for some issues about the limiting behavior of debt, this makes a possibly\n",
690-
"important difference from AMSS [[AMSSeppala02]](https://python-programming.quantecon.org/zreferences.html#aiyagari2002optimal), who restricted transfers\n",
689+
"Throughout this lecture, we shall set transfers to zero (for some issues about the limiting behavior of debt, this is possibly an important difference from AMSS [[AMSSeppala02]](https://python-programming.quantecon.org/zreferences.html#aiyagari2002optimal), who restricted transfers\n",
691690
"to be non-negative).\n",
692691
"\n",
693692
"In this case, the household faces a sequence of budget constraints\n",
@@ -849,7 +848,7 @@
849848
"\\beta V_x(x(s),s) = \\mu(s|s_-) \\tag{26}\n",
850849
"$$\n",
851850
"\n",
852-
"Applying the envelope theorem to Bellman equation [(22)](#equation-eqn-amssapp5) gives\n",
851+
"Applying an envelope theorem to Bellman equation [(22)](#equation-eqn-amssapp5) gives\n",
853852
"\n",
854853
"\n",
855854
"<a id='equation-eqn-amssapp8'></a>\n",
@@ -864,7 +863,7 @@
864863
"<a id='equation-eqn-amssapp9'></a>\n",
865864
"$$\n",
866865
"V_x(x_-, s_-) = \\sum_{s} \\left( \\Pi(s|s_-) {\\frac{u_c(s)}{\\sum_{\\tilde s}\n",
867-
"\\Pi(\\tilde s| s_-) u_c(\\tilde s)}} \\right) V_x(x(s), s) \\tag{28}\n",
866+
"\\Pi(\\tilde s| s_-) u_c(\\tilde s)}} \\right) V_x(x, s) \\tag{28}\n",
868867
"$$\n",
869868
"\n",
870869
"Equation [(28)](#equation-eqn-amssapp9) states that $ V_x(x, s) $ is a *risk-adjusted martingale*.\n",
@@ -899,7 +898,7 @@
899898
"- a counterpart to $ V_x(x,s) $ is time-invariant and equal to\n",
900899
" the Lagrange multiplier on the Lucas-Stokey implementability constraint \n",
901900
"- time invariance of $ V_x(x,s) $ is the source of a key\n",
902-
" feature of the Lucas-Stokey model, namely, **state variable degeneracy** in which $ x_t $ is an exact time-invariant function of $ s_t $) \n",
901+
" feature of the Lucas-Stokey model, namely, **state variable degeneracy** in which $ x_t $ is an exact time-invariant function of $ s_t $. \n",
903902
"\n",
904903
"\n",
905904
"That $ V_x(x,s) $ varies over time according to a twisted martingale\n",
@@ -1374,7 +1373,7 @@
13741373
">For convenience in matching our computer code, we have expressed\n",
13751374
"utility as a function of $ n $ rather than leisure $ l $.\n",
13761375
"\n",
1377-
"We consider the same government expenditure process studied in the lecture on\n",
1376+
"We first consider a government expenditure process that we studied earlier in a lecture on\n",
13781377
"[optimal taxation with state-contingent debt](https://python-programming.quantecon.org/opt_tax_recur.html).\n",
13791378
"\n",
13801379
"Government expenditures are known for sure in all periods except one.\n",
@@ -1470,11 +1469,11 @@
14701469
"cell_type": "markdown",
14711470
"metadata": {},
14721471
"source": [
1473-
"The following figure plots the Ramsey plan under both complete and incomplete\n",
1472+
"The following figure plots Ramsey plans under complete and incomplete\n",
14741473
"markets for both possible realizations of the state at time $ t=3 $.\n",
14751474
"\n",
1476-
"Optimal policies when the government has access to state-contingent debt are\n",
1477-
"represented by black lines, while the optimal policies when there is only a risk-free bond are in red.\n",
1475+
"Ramsey outcomes and policies when the government has access to state-contingent debt are\n",
1476+
"represented by black lines and by red lines when there is only a risk-free bond.\n",
14781477
"\n",
14791478
"Paths with circles are histories in which there is peace, while those with\n",
14801479
"triangle denote war."
@@ -1553,9 +1552,9 @@
15531552
"\n",
15541553
"If it is able to trade state-contingent debt, then at time $ t=2 $\n",
15551554
"\n",
1556-
"- the government purchases an Arrow security that pays off when $ g_3 = g_h $ \n",
1557-
"- the government sells an Arrow security that pays off when $ g_3 = g_l $ \n",
1558-
"- these purchases are designed in such a way that regardless of whether or not there is a war at $ t=3 $, the government will begin period $ t=4 $ with the *same* government debt \n",
1555+
"- the government **purchases** an Arrow security that pays off when $ g_3 = g_h $ \n",
1556+
"- the government **sells** an Arrow security that pays off when $ g_3 = g_l $ \n",
1557+
"- the Ramsey planner designs these purchases and sales designed so that, regardless of whether or not there is a war at $ t=3 $, the government begins period $ t=4 $ with the *same* government debt \n",
15591558
"\n",
15601559
"\n",
15611560
"This pattern facilities smoothing tax rates across states.\n",
@@ -1564,9 +1563,11 @@
15641563
"\n",
15651564
"Instead, it must enter time $ t=3 $ with the same level of debt falling due whether there is peace or war at $ t=3 $.\n",
15661565
"\n",
1567-
"It responds to this constraint by smoothing tax rates across time.\n",
1566+
"The risk-free rate between time $ 2 $ and time $ 3 $ is unusually **low** because at time $ 2 $ consumption at time $ 3 $ is expected to be unusually **low**.\n",
15681567
"\n",
1569-
"To finance a war it raises taxes and issues more debt.\n",
1568+
"A **low** risk-free rate of return on government debt between time $ 2 $ and time $ 3 $ allows the government to enter period $ 3 $ with **lower** government debt than it entered period $ 2 $.\n",
1569+
"\n",
1570+
"To finance a war at time $ 3 $ it raises taxes and issues more debt to carry into perpetual peace that begins in period $ 4 $.\n",
15701571
"\n",
15711572
"To service the additional debt burden, it raises taxes in all future periods.\n",
15721573
"\n",
@@ -1786,7 +1787,7 @@
17861787
}
17871788
],
17881789
"metadata": {
1789-
"date": 1619402673.1077754,
1790+
"date": 1619661941.0074658,
17901791
"filename": "amss.rst",
17911792
"kernelspec": {
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"display_name": "Python",

amss2.ipynb

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}
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],
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"metadata": {
1613-
"date": 1619402673.2683423,
1613+
"date": 1619661941.1767492,
16141614
"filename": "amss2.rst",
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"kernelspec": {
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"display_name": "Python",

amss3.ipynb

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}
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arellano.ipynb

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}
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"metadata": {
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arma.ipynb

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"metadata": {
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black_litterman.ipynb

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}
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"metadata": {
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"filename": "black_litterman.rst",
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calvo.ipynb

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"metadata": {
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"filename": "calvo.rst",
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cattle_cycles.ipynb

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"metadata": {
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"date": 1619661942.6324031,
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"filename": "cattle_cycles.rst",
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chang_credible.ipynb

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"metadata": {
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"date": 1619661942.7952566,
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"filename": "chang_credible.rst",
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"kernelspec": {
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"display_name": "Python",

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