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<p><br> <br></p>
<div id="caribou-ipm-description" class="section level2">
<h2>Caribou IPM Description</h2>
<p>We developed a model that uses all available data to estimate vital
rates and population size for the endangered Tonquin herd in Jasper
National Park. This integrated population model (IPM) allowed us to
incorporate all available data since 2001 into a single, coherent
picture of the population. In addition, we were able to incorporate
relevant biology into the modeling process to produce self-consistent
estimates of multiple population parameters. From a management
perspective, the model allows for proactive evaluation management
strategies.</p>
<div id="basic-biological-assumptions" class="section level3">
<h3>Basic Biological Assumptions</h3>
<p>Because all data surveys were conducted during the autumn, we defined
the model year from October 1 to September 30. This means the model
anniversary is October 1 and all estimates reference this date. In terms
of population structure, the relatively slow reproduction of Caribou
prompted us to define four age classes. We defined these age classes as
follows:</p>
<ul>
<li>Y, young of year (0.5 year)</li>
<li>J, juvenile (1.5 years)</li>
<li>S, subadult (2.5 years)</li>
<li>A, adult (≥3.5 years)</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div id="reproduction" class="section level3">
<h3>Reproduction</h3>
<p>When estimating reproduction, we assumed that female caribou do not
reproduce until their third year of life. Although it may be likely that
some proportion of younger animals also reproduce, we do not have data
to support this notion. Because twinning is exceedingly rare in caribou,
we assumed that females only gave birth to one calf during parturition.
Data informing reproduction were calf:cow ratios collected by aerial
survey. Because female and male caribou can both have antlers, it can be
difficult to distinguish them in the field. It can also be difficult to
distinguish juveniles, subadults, and adults in the field. However, at
the time of the survey, only adult female caribou should have calves.
This means that raw ratios were only reflective of the average
contribution of juvenile, subadult, and adult caribou to the population,
even though only the adult class had bred the year before. In the model,
we separated out these influences and derived a ratio of young to adult
females while simultaneously accounting for the difficulties associated
with uniquely identifying the various sex and age classes.</p>
</div>
<div id="survival" class="section level3">
<h3>Survival</h3>
<p>To model caribou survival and mortality, we assumed that subadult and
adult caribou survival vary predictably around some constant mean but
that juvenile survival varies more drastically between years. We used a
known-fate model that accounted for temporal variability with a random
effect of month. This suggests that each month has a unique mean (among
years) and that each year by month combination can further be unique if
there is sufficient data to suggest moving away from the mean value.
Using random effects to model the temporal and/or spatial differences in
vital rates is supported by arguments for parsimony where we seek to
simultaneously bolster sample sizes by sharing information while
allowing for differences.</p>
</div>
<div id="abundance" class="section level3">
<h3>Abundance</h3>
<p>We estimated abundance of each sex and age class from the number of
animals the previous year and their survival rate. We derived lambda
based on the abundance estimate of a given year and the year before.</p>
</div>
<div id="translocations" class="section level3">
<h3>Translocations</h3>
<p>To analyze the impact of translocations to bolster the caribou herds,
we built an editable table that the user can adjust to add individuals
in certain years in the future. Post-translocation survival depression
(PTSD) has been reported in many translocated ungulate studies, in which
survival is much lower for translocated individuals than that of
resident animals. We allow the user to adjust the level of PTSD as a
proportion of wild survival for that age class. We modeled
reintroduction as occurring immediately after surveys are performed,
assuming that even if individuals were released before surveys, they
would be marked to differentiable.</p>
</div>
<div id="data" class="section level3">
<h3>Data</h3>
<p>Data sources: • Aerial mark-recapture on collared adult females for
survival and abundance • Monthly survival of VHF-collared adult females
• Aerial minimum population counts • Aerial calf:cow ratios •
Non-invasive DNA data for survival and abundance</p>
<hr />
<p>Developed by Josh Nowak, <a
href="https://www.speedgoat.io">SpeedGoat</a></p>
<p><img src = "www/SG_Horizontal_Transparent_RGB.png" height = "122" width = "162"></p>
<p><br></p>
<hr />
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