diff --git a/experiments/calibration/abc-1.ipynb b/experiments/calibration/abc-1.ipynb index 2b6f9d8a..aab2bf23 100644 --- a/experiments/calibration/abc-1.ipynb +++ b/experiments/calibration/abc-1.ipynb @@ -1734,7 +1734,7 @@ "name": "python", "nbconvert_exporter": "python", "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", - "version": "3.8.5" + "version": "3.7.6" } }, "nbformat": 4, diff --git a/experiments/calibration/abc-2.ipynb b/experiments/calibration/abc-2.ipynb index b5f4fdda..d2e4939f 100644 --- a/experiments/calibration/abc-2.ipynb +++ b/experiments/calibration/abc-2.ipynb @@ -8,9 +8,19 @@ "\n", "Multi-paramter calibration of the RAMP model using Approximate Bayesian Computation\n", "\n", - "Based on [abc-1.ipynb](abc-1.ipynb). See that file for a more detailed technical description. This file calibrates on the location-specific hazard multipliers (e.g. to see if the algorithm can work out how hazardous the different location types are). These are:\n", - " - XXXX \n", - " - XXXX " + "Based on [abc-1.ipynb](abc-1.ipynb). See that file for a more detailed technical description. This file calibrates on the location-specific hazard multipliers (e.g. to see if the algorithm can work out how hazardous the different location types are). The full list of parameters:\n", + "\n", + "## Asymptomatic multiplier (`asymptomatic`)\n", + "\n", + "This is tricky because we don't know the hazard associated with asymptomatic transmission. James Salter used a prior of: N(0.444, 0.155) which gives the middle 95% as [0.138, 0.75] ([0.138 estimated here](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.04.20121434v2), [0.58 estimated here](https://jammi.utpjournals.press/doi/abs/10.3138/jammi-2020-0030), [0.75 estimated here (Table 1)](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html). \n", + "\n", + "## Presymptomatic and symptomatic multipliers\n", + "\n", + "Are fixed at 1 \n", + "\n", + "## Location hazards:\n", + "\n", + " - XXXX Outline the hazards and priors\n" ] }, { @@ -1227,7 +1237,7 @@ "name": "python", "nbconvert_exporter": "python", "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", - "version": "3.8.5" + "version": "3.7.6" } }, "nbformat": 4,