diff --git a/content/publication/goodman2023probabilistic.md b/content/publication/goodman2023probabilistic.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..53b94c1 --- /dev/null +++ b/content/publication/goodman2023probabilistic.md @@ -0,0 +1,33 @@ ++++ +# 0 -> 'Forthcoming', +# 1 -> 'Preprint', +# 2 -> 'Journal', +# 3 -> 'Conference Proceedings', +# 4 -> 'Book chapter', +# 5 -> 'Thesis' + +title = "Probabilistic programs as a unifying language of thought" +date = "2023-01-01" +year = "{in press}" +authors = ["N. D. Goodman","T. Gerstenberg","J. B. Tenenbaum"] +publication_types = ["4", "0"] +publication_short = "_Reverse-engineering the mind: The Bayesian approach to cognitive science_" +publication = "Goodman N. D., Gerstenberg T., Tenenbaum J. B. (in press). Probabilistic programs as a unifying language of thought. In _Reverse-engineering the mind: The Bayesian approach to cognitive science_." +image_preview = "" +selected = false +projects = [] +#url_pdf = "papers/goodman2023probabilistic.pdf" +url_preprint = "" +url_code = "" +url_dataset = "" +url_slides = "" +url_video = "" +url_poster = "" +url_source = "" +#url_custom = [{name = "Github", url = ""}] +math = true +highlight = true +[header] +# image = "publications/goodman2023probabilistic.png" +caption = "" ++++ \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/content/publication/smith2022probabilistic.md b/content/publication/smith2022probabilistic.md index f8cf533..a10f05a 100644 --- a/content/publication/smith2022probabilistic.md +++ b/content/publication/smith2022probabilistic.md @@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ # 5 -> 'Thesis' title = "Probabilistic models of physical reasoning" -date = "2022-03-08" +date = "2023-01-01" year = "{in press}" authors = ["K. A. Smith","J. B. Hamrick","A. N. Sanborn","P. W. Battaglia","T. Gerstenberg","T. D. Ullman","J. B. Tenenbaum"] publication_types = ["0", "4"] diff --git a/content/publication/vasconcelos2023explanations.md b/content/publication/vasconcelos2023explanations.md index e821b46..e74e4af 100644 --- a/content/publication/vasconcelos2023explanations.md +++ b/content/publication/vasconcelos2023explanations.md @@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ title = "Explanations can reduce overreliance on AI systems during decision-making" date = "2023-01-01" authors = ['H. Vasconcelos','M. Jörke','M. Grunde-McLaughlin','T. Gerstenberg','M. Bernstein','R. Krishna'] -publication_types = ["2"] +publication_types = ["3"] publication_short = "_Proceedings of the ACM on Human-Computer Interaction_" publication = "Vasconcelos, H., J\"orke, M., Grunde-McLaughlin, M., Gerstenberg, T., Bernstein, M. S., Krishna, R. (2023). Explanations can reduce overreliance on ai systems during decision-making. In _Proceedings of the ACM on Human-Computer Interaction_, 7, 1--38." abstract = "Prior work has identified a resilient phenomenon that threatens the performance of human-AI decision-making teams: overreliance, when people agree with an AI, even when it is incorrect. Surprisingly, overreliance does not reduce when the AI produces explanations for its predictions, compared to only providing predictions. Some have argued that overreliance results from cognitive biases or uncalibrated trust, attributing overreliance to an inevitability of human cognition. By contrast, our paper argues that people strategically choose whether or not to engage with an AI explanation, demonstrating empirically that there are scenarios where AI explanations reduce overreliance. To achieve this, we formalize this strategic choice in a cost-benefit framework, where the costs and benefits of engaging with the task are weighed against the costs and benefits of relying on the AI. We manipulate the costs and benefits in a maze task, where participants collaborate with a simulated AI to find the exit of a maze. Through 5 studies (N = 731), we find that costs such as task difficulty (Study 1), explanation difficulty (Study 2, 3), and benefits such as monetary compensation (Study 4) affect overreliance. Finally, Study 5 adapts the Cognitive Effort Discounting paradigm to quantify the utility of different explanations, providing further support for our framework. Our results suggest that some of the null effects found in literature could be due in part to the explanation not sufficiently reducing the costs of verifying the AI's prediction." diff --git a/content/publication/wu2023replacement.md b/content/publication/wu2023replacement.md index 9dd8275..5c68253 100644 --- a/content/publication/wu2023replacement.md +++ b/content/publication/wu2023replacement.md @@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ title = "If not me, then who? Responsibility and replacement" date = "2023-10-02" authors = ["S. A. Wu","T. Gerstenberg"] -publication_types = ["1"] +publication_types = ["2"] publication_short = "_Cognition_" publication = "Wu S. A., Gerstenberg T. (accepted). If not me, then who? Responsibility and replacement. _Cognition_." abstract = "How do people hold others responsible? Responsibility judgments are affected not only by what actually happened, but also by what could have happened if things had turned out differently. Here, we look at how replaceability -- the ease with which a person could have been replaced by someone else -- affects responsibility. We develop the counterfactual replacement model which runs simulations of alternative scenarios to determine the probability that the outcome would have been different if the person of interest had been replaced. The model predicts that a person is held more responsible when it would have been more difficult to replace them. To test the model's predictions, we design a paradigm that quantitatively varies replaceability by manipulating the number of replacements as well as the probability with which each replacement would have been available. Across three experiments featuring increasingly complex scenarios, we show that the model explains participants' responsibility judgments well in both social and physical settings, and better than alternative models that rely only on features of what actually happened." diff --git a/docs/bibtex/cic_papers.bib b/docs/bibtex/cic_papers.bib index 154e1c7..8f056bf 100644 --- a/docs/bibtex/cic_papers.bib +++ b/docs/bibtex/cic_papers.bib @@ -1,23 +1,31 @@ %% This BibTeX bibliography file was created using BibDesk. %% https://bibdesk.sourceforge.io/ -%% Created for Tobias Gerstenberg at 2023-10-02 22:32:06 -0700 +%% Created for Tobias Gerstenberg at 2023-10-10 11:28:38 -0700 %% Saved with string encoding Unicode (UTF-8) +@incollection{goodman2023probabilistic, + author = {Noah D. Goodman and Tobias Gerstenberg and Joshua B. Tenenbaum}, + booktitle = {Reverse-engineering the mind: The Bayesian approach to cognitive science}, + date-added = {2023-10-10 11:19:49 -0700}, + date-modified = {2023-10-10 11:20:27 -0700}, + editor = {Thomas L. Griffiths and Nick Chater and Joshua B. Tenenbaum}, + title = {Probabilistic programs as a unifying language of thought}, + year = {2023}} + @article{amemiya2023disagreement, abstract = {A challenge when figuring out what happened based on what others say is that they might disagree. Two preregistered experiments examined how children age 7 to 11 years use disagreement to make inferences about social events. Specifically, when there is no reason to question the reliability of either informant, can children use disagreement to infer that an ambiguous social event occurred? Experiment 1 (N = 52) found that children are indeed more likely to infer that an ambiguous social event occurred after learning that people disagreed (versus agreed) about what happened and that these inferences become stronger with age. Experiment 2 (N = 110) examined children's ability to predict that an ambiguous social event would cause disagreement and applied a computational model to examine the extent to which predictions explained their inferences. Children made the expected predictions and their inferences were consistent with the computational model, indicating that the ability to predict disagreement plays an important role for drawing inferences about what happened.}, author = {Jamie Amemiya and Gail D. Heyman and Tobias Gerstenberg}, date-added = {2023-09-09 11:57:43 -0700}, - date-modified = {2023-09-09 11:58:57 -0700}, + date-modified = {2023-10-10 11:27:30 -0700}, journal = {PsyArXiv}, title = {Children use disagreement to infer what happened}, url = {https://psyarxiv.com/y79sd/}, - year = {2023}, - bdsk-url-1 = {https://psyarxiv.com/y79sd/}} + year = {2023}} @article{beller2023language, abstract = {The words we use to describe what happened shape the story a listener imagines. How do speakers choose what causal expression to use? How does that impact what listeners infer about what happened? In this paper, we develop a computational model of how people use the causal expressions "caused", "enabled", "affected", and "made no difference". The model first builds a causal representation of what happened. By running counterfactual simulations, the model computes causal aspects that capture the different ways in which a candidate cause made a difference to the outcome. Logical combinations of these aspects define a semantics for the different causal expressions. The model then uses pragmatic inference favoring informative utterances to decide what word to use in context. We test our model in a series of experiments. In a set of psycholinguistic studies, we verify semantic and pragmatic assumptions of our model. We show that the causal expressions exist on a hierarchy of informativeness, and that participants draw informative pragmatic inferences in line with this scale. In the next two studies, we demonstrate that our model quantitatively fits participant behavior in a speaker task and a listener task involving dynamic physical scenarios. We compare our model to two lesioned alternatives, one which removes the pragmatic inference component, and another which additionally removes the semantics of the causal expressions. Our full model better accounts for participants' behavior than both alternatives, suggesting that causal knowledge, semantics, and pragmatics are all important for understanding how people produce and comprehend causal language.}, diff --git a/docs/cv/tobias_gerstenberg.pdf b/docs/cv/tobias_gerstenberg.pdf index 93b0ebf..60be924 100644 Binary files a/docs/cv/tobias_gerstenberg.pdf and b/docs/cv/tobias_gerstenberg.pdf differ diff --git a/docs/member/tobias_gerstenberg/index.html b/docs/member/tobias_gerstenberg/index.html index 6f8d6f2..3efe570 100644 --- a/docs/member/tobias_gerstenberg/index.html +++ b/docs/member/tobias_gerstenberg/index.html @@ -1064,6 +1064,64 @@

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Probabilistic programs as a unifying language of thought

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If not me, then who? Responsibility and replacement

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Children use disagreement to infer what happened

diff --git a/docs/publication_types/1/index.xml b/docs/publication_types/1/index.xml index c0deed3..685fe3a 100644 --- a/docs/publication_types/1/index.xml +++ b/docs/publication_types/1/index.xml @@ -7,20 +7,11 @@ Hugo -- gohugo.io en-us &copy; 2023 Tobias Gerstenberg - Mon, 02 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +0000 + Sat, 09 Sep 2023 00:00:00 +0000 - - If not me, then who? Responsibility and replacement - https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/wu2023replacement/ - Mon, 02 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +0000 - - https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/wu2023replacement/ - - - Children use disagreement to infer what happened https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/amemiya2023disagreement/ diff --git a/docs/publication_types/2/index.html b/docs/publication_types/2/index.html index 990bf2a..54f48db 100644 --- a/docs/publication_types/2/index.html +++ b/docs/publication_types/2/index.html @@ -111,7 +111,7 @@ - + @@ -239,37 +239,37 @@

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Making a positive difference: Criticality in groups

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If not me, then who? Responsibility and replacement

- How critical are individual members perceived to be for their group's performance? In this paper, we show that judgments of criticality are intimately linked to considering responsibility. Prospective responsibility attributions in groups are … + How do people hold others responsible? Responsibility judgments are affected not only by what actually happened, but also by what could have happened if things had turned out differently. Here, we look at how replaceability -- the ease with which a …
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Mental Jenga: A counterfactual simulation model of causal judgments about physical support

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Making a positive difference: Criticality in groups

- From building towers to picking an orange from a stack of fruit, assessing support is critical for successfully interacting with the physical world. But how do people determine whether one object supports another? In this paper, we develop the … + How critical are individual members perceived to be for their group's performance? In this paper, we show that judgments of criticality are intimately linked to considering responsibility. Prospective responsibility attributions in groups are …
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Active causal structure learning in continuous time

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Mental Jenga: A counterfactual simulation model of causal judgments about physical support

- Research on causal learning has largely focused on learning and reasoning about contingency data aggregated across discrete observations or experiments. However, this setting represents only the tip of the causal cognition iceberg. A more general … + From building towers to picking an orange from a stack of fruit, assessing support is critical for successfully interacting with the physical world. But how do people determine whether one object supports another? In this paper, we develop the …
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Explanations can reduce overreliance on AI systems during decision-making

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Active causal structure learning in continuous time

- Prior work has identified a resilient phenomenon that threatens the performance of human-AI decision-making teams: overreliance, when people agree with an AI, even when it is incorrect. Surprisingly, overreliance does not reduce when the AI produces … + Research on causal learning has largely focused on learning and reasoning about contingency data aggregated across discrete observations or experiments. However, this setting represents only the tip of the causal cognition iceberg. A more general …
diff --git a/docs/publication_types/2/index.xml b/docs/publication_types/2/index.xml index 32962be..07e0afe 100644 --- a/docs/publication_types/2/index.xml +++ b/docs/publication_types/2/index.xml @@ -7,11 +7,20 @@ Hugo -- gohugo.io en-us &copy; 2023 Tobias Gerstenberg - Wed, 14 Jun 2023 00:00:00 +0000 + Mon, 02 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +0000 + + If not me, then who? Responsibility and replacement + https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/wu2023replacement/ + Mon, 02 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +0000 + + https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/wu2023replacement/ + + + Making a positive difference: Criticality in groups https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/gerstenberg2023criticality/ @@ -39,15 +48,6 @@ - - Explanations can reduce overreliance on AI systems during decision-making - https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/vasconcelos2023explanations/ - Sun, 01 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0000 - - https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/vasconcelos2023explanations/ - - - What would have happened? Counterfactuals, hypotheticals, and causal judgments https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/gerstenberg2022hypothetical/ diff --git a/docs/publication_types/2/page/2/index.html b/docs/publication_types/2/page/2/index.html index 8a84e14..400dfb9 100644 --- a/docs/publication_types/2/page/2/index.html +++ b/docs/publication_types/2/page/2/index.html @@ -111,7 +111,7 @@ - + diff --git a/docs/publication_types/2/page/3/index.html b/docs/publication_types/2/page/3/index.html index 0c36ee0..ba9871f 100644 --- a/docs/publication_types/2/page/3/index.html +++ b/docs/publication_types/2/page/3/index.html @@ -111,7 +111,7 @@ - + diff --git a/docs/publication_types/3/index.html b/docs/publication_types/3/index.html index 52a2aea..b8b12df 100644 --- a/docs/publication_types/3/index.html +++ b/docs/publication_types/3/index.html @@ -320,10 +320,10 @@

Teleology

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Stop, children what's that sound? Multi-modal inference through mental simulation

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Explanations can reduce overreliance on AI systems during decision-making

- Human adults can figure out what happened by combining evidence from different sensory modalities, such as vision and sound. How does the ability to integrate multi-modal information develop in early childhood? Inspired by prior computational work … + Prior work has identified a resilient phenomenon that threatens the performance of human-AI decision-making teams: overreliance, when people agree with an AI, even when it is incorrect. Surprisingly, overreliance does not reduce when the AI produces …
diff --git a/docs/publication_types/3/index.xml b/docs/publication_types/3/index.xml index 5cef59d..64542b4 100644 --- a/docs/publication_types/3/index.xml +++ b/docs/publication_types/3/index.xml @@ -93,6 +93,15 @@ + + Explanations can reduce overreliance on AI systems during decision-making + https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/vasconcelos2023explanations/ + Sun, 01 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0000 + + https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/vasconcelos2023explanations/ + + + Stop, children what's that sound? Multi-modal inference through mental simulation https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/outa2022stop/ diff --git a/docs/publication_types/3/page/2/index.html b/docs/publication_types/3/page/2/index.html index 3a3091c..74868fa 100644 --- a/docs/publication_types/3/page/2/index.html +++ b/docs/publication_types/3/page/2/index.html @@ -238,6 +238,15 @@

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Stop, children what's that sound? Multi-modal inference through mental simulation

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Causal learning from interventions and dynamics in continuous time

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