update

content/publication/gerstenberg2024beyond.md

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+# 0 -> 'Forthcoming',
+# 1 -> 'Preprint',
+# 2 -> 'Journal',
+# 3 -> 'Conference Proceedings',
+# 4 -> 'Book chapter',
+# 5 -> 'Thesis'
+
+title = "Beyond the here and now: Counterfactual simulation in causal cognition"
+date = "2024-01-21"
+authors = ["T. Gerstenberg"]
+publication_types = ["1"]
+publication_short = "_PsyArXiv_"
+publication = "Gerstenberg T. (2024). Beyond the here and now: Counterfactual simulation in causal cognition. In _PsyArXiv_."
+abstract = "How do people make causal judgments and assign responsibility? In this paper, I argue that counterfactual simulations are key. To simulate counterfactuals, we need three ingredients: a generative mental model of the world, the ability to perform interventions on that model, and the capacity to simulate the consequences of these interventions. The counterfactual simulation model (CSM) uses these ingredients to capture people's intuitive understanding of the physical and social world. In the physical domain, the CSM predicts people's causal judgments about dynamic collision events, complex situations that involve multiple causes, omissions as causes, and causes that sustain physical stability. In the social domain, the CSM predicts responsibility judgments in helping and hindering scenarios."
+image_preview = ""
+selected = false
+projects = []
+#url_pdf = "papers/gerstenberg2024beyond.pdf"
+url_preprint = "https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/72scr"
+url_code = ""
+url_dataset = ""
+url_slides = ""
+url_video = ""
+url_poster = ""
+url_source = ""
+#url_custom = [{name = "Github", url = ""}]
+math = true
+highlight = true
+[header]
+# image = "publications/gerstenberg2024beyond.png"
+caption = ""
++++

docs/404.html

@@ -237,6 +237,10 @@ <h1>Page not found</h1>
 
   <h2>Publications</h2>
 
+  <ul>
+    <li><a href="https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/gerstenberg2024beyond/">Beyond the here and now: Counterfactual simulation in causal cognition</a></li>
+  </ul>
+
   <ul>
     <li><a href="https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/kirfel2023anticipating/">Anticipating the risks and benefits of counterfactual world simulation models</a></li>
   </ul>
@@ -253,10 +257,6 @@ <h2>Publications</h2>
     <li><a href="https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/wu2023replacement/">If not me, then who? Responsibility and replacement</a></li>
   </ul>
 
-  <ul>
-    <li><a href="https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/nie2023moca/">MoCa: Measuring human-language model alignment on causal and moral judgment tasks</a></li>
-  </ul>
-
 
 
 

docs/bibtex/cic_papers.bib

@@ -1,13 +1,23 @@
 %% This BibTeX bibliography file was created using BibDesk.
 %% https://bibdesk.sourceforge.io/
 
-%% Created for Tobias Gerstenberg at 2023-11-20 10:18:20 -0800 
+%% Created for Tobias Gerstenberg at 2024-01-21 16:57:43 -0800 
 
 
 %% Saved with string encoding Unicode (UTF-8) 
 
 
 
+@article{gerstenberg2024beyond,
+	abstract = {How do people make causal judgments and assign responsibility? In this paper, I argue that counterfactual simulations are key. To simulate counterfactuals, we need three ingredients: a generative mental model of the world, the ability to perform interventions on that model, and the capacity to simulate the consequences of these interventions. The counterfactual simulation model (CSM) uses these ingredients to capture people's intuitive understanding of the physical and social world. In the physical domain, the CSM predicts people's causal judgments about dynamic collision events, complex situations that involve multiple causes, omissions as causes, and causes that sustain physical stability. In the social domain, the CSM predicts responsibility judgments in helping and hindering scenarios.},
+	author = {Tobias Gerstenberg},
+	date-added = {2024-01-21 16:57:04 -0800},
+	date-modified = {2024-01-21 16:57:43 -0800},
+	journal = {PsyArXiv},
+	title = {Beyond the here and now: Counterfactual simulation in causal cognition},
+	url = {https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/72scr},
+	year = {2024}}
+
 @inproceedings{nie2023moca,
 	abstract = {Human commonsense understanding of the physical and social world is organized around intuitive theories. These theories support making causal and moral judgments. When something bad happens, we naturally ask: who did what, and why? A rich literature in cognitive science has studied people's causal and moral intuitions. This work has revealed a number of factors that systematically influence people's judgments, such as the violation of norms and whether the harm is avoidable or inevitable. We collected a dataset of stories from 24 cognitive science papers and developed a system to annotate each story with the factors they investigated. Using this dataset, we test whether large language models (LLMs) make causal and moral judgments about text-based scenarios that align with those of human participants. On the aggregate level, alignment has improved with more recent LLMs. However, using statistical analyses, we find that LLMs weigh the different factors quite differently from human participants. These results show how curated, challenge datasets combined with insights from cognitive science can help us go beyond comparisons based merely on aggregate metrics: we uncover LLMs implicit tendencies and show to what extent these align with human intuitions.},
 	author = {Allen Nie and Yuhui Zhang and Atharva Amdekar and Christopher J Piech and Tatsunori Hashimoto and Tobias Gerstenberg},

docs/index.html

@@ -110,7 +110,7 @@
   <meta property="og:description" content="">
   <meta property="og:locale" content="en-us">
 
-  <meta property="og:updated_time" content="2023-10-30T00:00:00&#43;00:00">
+  <meta property="og:updated_time" content="2024-01-21T00:00:00&#43;00:00">
 
 
 

docs/index.xml

@@ -6,9 +6,18 @@
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     <language>en-us</language>
     <copyright>&amp;copy; 2023 Tobias Gerstenberg</copyright>
-    <lastBuildDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +0000</lastBuildDate>
+    <lastBuildDate>Sun, 21 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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+      <title>Beyond the here and now: Counterfactual simulation in causal cognition</title>
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+      <pubDate>Sun, 21 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
+
+      <guid>https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/gerstenberg2024beyond/</guid>
+      <description></description>
+    </item>
+
     <item>
       <title>Anticipating the risks and benefits of counterfactual world simulation models</title>
       <link>https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/kirfel2023anticipating/</link>
@@ -135,14 +144,5 @@
       <description></description>
     </item>
 
-    <item>
-      <title>You are what you&#39;re for: Essentialist categorization in large language models</title>
-      <link>https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/zhang2023llm/</link>
-      <pubDate>Thu, 11 May 2023 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
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docs/member/tobias_gerstenberg/index.html

@@ -354,6 +354,45 @@ <h2 id="publications">Publications</h2>
 
 
        <div class="pub-list-item" style="margin-bottom: 1rem" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/CreativeWork">
+  <span itemprop="author">
+    T. Gerstenberg</span>
+
+    (2024).
+
+  <a href="https://cicl.stanford.edu/publication/gerstenberg2024beyond/" itemprop="name">Beyond the here and now: Counterfactual simulation in causal cognition</a>.
+  <em>PsyArXiv</em>.
+
+
+
+
+  <p>
+
+
+
+
+<a class="btn btn-outline-primary my-1 mr-1 btn-sm" href="https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/72scr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">
+  Preprint
+</a>
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+  </p>
+
+</div>
+<div class="pub-list-item" style="margin-bottom: 1rem" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/CreativeWork">
   <span itemprop="author">
     L. Kirfel, R. J. MacCoun, T. Icard, T. Gerstenberg</span>