Write a summary of analysis during winter conditions

[ehmatthes]

This winter we received more heavy rain events than usual. I posted notifications a couple times stating that the tool has not been calibrated for winter conditions. I ended up leaving the notification up for the winter.

It would be good to write a longer summary about the factors that make this tool unreliable during winter conditions: snowmelt, surface runoff characteristics over frozen ground, lack of historical data related to slide events during winter conditions, etc.

People are wondering if we are likely to see more slide events during winter rain events. There was a slide across Green Lake Road in February 2022, and a portion of the cross trail washed out earlier this winter. It would be good to note these events in the historical record, although we need to be careful about how these impact analysis and accuracy measurements; ie these are not events we're really trying to predict with this analysis.