added federal perspective

hammerdirt-analyst · Jun 10, 2024 · 0b6411e · 0b6411e
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diff --git a/_build/.doctrees/a_report_class.doctree b/_build/.doctrees/a_report_class.doctree
diff --git a/_build/.doctrees/bern.doctree b/_build/.doctrees/bern.doctree
diff --git a/_build/.doctrees/combined.doctree b/_build/.doctrees/combined.doctree
diff --git a/_build/.doctrees/environment.pickle b/_build/.doctrees/environment.pickle
diff --git a/_build/.doctrees/forecasts.doctree b/_build/.doctrees/forecasts.doctree
diff --git a/_build/.doctrees/geneve.doctree b/_build/.doctrees/geneve.doctree
diff --git a/_build/.doctrees/landuse_class.doctree b/_build/.doctrees/landuse_class.doctree
diff --git a/_build/.doctrees/cantonal_report.doctree → ...d/.doctrees/multinomial_conjugate.doctree b/_build/.doctrees/cantonal_report.doctree → ...d/.doctrees/multinomial_conjugate.doctree
diff --git a/_build/.doctrees/project.doctree b/_build/.doctrees/project.doctree
diff --git a/_build/.doctrees/the_survey_data.doctree b/_build/.doctrees/the_survey_data.doctree
diff --git a/_build/.doctrees/titlepage.doctree b/_build/.doctrees/titlepage.doctree
diff --git a/_build/.doctrees/display_reports.doctree → _build/.doctrees/use_cases.doctree b/_build/.doctrees/display_reports.doctree → _build/.doctrees/use_cases.doctree
diff --git a/_build/.doctrees/valais.doctree b/_build/.doctrees/valais.doctree
diff --git a/_build/.doctrees/vaud.doctree b/_build/.doctrees/vaud.doctree
diff --git a/_build/.doctrees/zurich.doctree b/_build/.doctrees/zurich.doctree
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diff --git a/_build/html/_sources/a_report_class.ipynb b/_build/html/_sources/a_report_class.ipynb
@@ -780,10 +780,10 @@
       "\n",
       "conda environment: cantonal_report\n",
       "\n",
+      "seaborn   : 0.12.2\n",
+      "numpy     : 1.25.2\n",
       "pandas    : 2.0.3\n",
       "matplotlib: 3.7.1\n",
-      "numpy     : 1.25.2\n",
-      "seaborn   : 0.12.2\n",
       "\n"
      ]
     }

diff --git a/_build/html/_sources/bern.ipynb b/_build/html/_sources/bern.ipynb
diff --git a/_build/html/_sources/combined.ipynb b/_build/html/_sources/combined.ipynb
diff --git a/_build/html/_sources/forecasts.ipynb b/_build/html/_sources/forecasts.ipynb
@@ -91,7 +91,7 @@
     "tags": []
    },
    "source": [
-    "# Forecasts\n",
+    "# Grid forecast class\n",
     "\n",
     "The _grid forecaster_ refers to the methods defined in `gridforecast.py`. The main purpose of the _grid forecaster_ is to implement estimate the probability that a survey result _y_ from a collection of survey results _Y_ will exceed a value _x_ on the grid _X_ from 0 - max(_X_) for every _x_ spaced 0.1, where max(_X_) is defined by _Y_. This is called a grid approximation, in this case we use a Bayesien framework and implement _multinomila-Dirichlet_ conjugate to estimate the probabilities on each point of the grid. The complete method is a defined in [grid approximation](#).\n",
     "\n",
@@ -442,18 +442,18 @@
     {
      "data": {
       "text/plain": [
-       "array([ 0.35,  0.74,  0.74,  1.  ,  1.16,  1.16,  1.16,  1.41,  1.41,\n",
-       "        1.43,  1.43,  1.75,  2.03,  2.03,  2.1 ,  2.21,  2.31,  2.32,\n",
-       "        2.47,  2.6 ,  2.6 ,  2.6 ,  2.6 ,  2.7 ,  2.74,  2.74,  2.8 ,\n",
-       "        3.03,  3.25,  3.27,  3.33,  3.33,  3.57,  3.81,  4.01,  4.22,\n",
-       "        4.22,  4.42,  4.53,  4.55,  4.71,  4.74,  4.74,  4.74,  4.78,\n",
-       "        4.78,  4.93,  4.93,  5.59,  5.8 ,  6.04,  6.85,  6.86,  8.55,\n",
-       "        8.65,  9.09,  9.69, 11.77, 12.36, 12.67, 12.99, 13.75, 13.75,\n",
-       "       14.38, 14.52, 15.92, 17.54, 17.54, 18.97, 20.97, 22.38, 22.8 ,\n",
-       "       24.25, 24.34, 24.34, 24.65, 28.62, 28.62, 33.74, 41.19, 43.78,\n",
-       "       47.64, 48.33, 48.56, 52.35, 53.89, 63.02, 64.14, 64.14, 66.17,\n",
-       "       66.82, 66.82, 66.84, 69.75, 69.75, 75.5 , 75.75, 75.75, 76.42,\n",
-       "       77.06])"
+       "array([ 0.44,  0.55,  0.71,  0.81,  0.85,  1.26,  1.26,  1.41,  1.43,\n",
+       "        1.5 ,  1.59,  1.59,  1.65,  1.75,  1.76,  1.76,  1.86,  1.89,\n",
+       "        1.89,  2.03,  2.1 ,  2.15,  2.21,  2.4 ,  2.45,  2.56,  2.57,\n",
+       "        2.57,  2.57,  2.57,  2.64,  2.69,  2.74,  3.41,  3.46,  3.73,\n",
+       "        4.01,  4.76,  4.76,  5.39,  5.43,  5.59,  6.29,  6.29,  6.43,\n",
+       "        6.55,  6.85,  6.94,  6.94,  6.95,  6.97,  7.26,  7.4 ,  7.68,\n",
+       "        8.4 ,  8.92,  9.57,  9.69, 10.07, 10.56, 10.64, 10.67, 10.67,\n",
+       "       10.67, 11.62, 12.37, 12.37, 12.61, 13.6 , 15.74, 18.36, 18.61,\n",
+       "       18.9 , 19.26, 22.38, 22.38, 23.73, 27.33, 28.13, 31.53, 31.98,\n",
+       "       33.55, 34.73, 35.57, 37.77, 39.36, 39.54, 40.69, 41.74, 44.1 ,\n",
+       "       46.96, 47.76, 50.51, 51.84, 51.92, 53.96, 59.09, 70.24, 70.24,\n",
+       "       75.28])"
       ]
      },
      "execution_count": 6,
@@ -502,7 +502,7 @@
     {
      "data": {
       "text/plain": [
-       "array([ 1.  ,  2.87,  6.25, 17.54, 59.5 ])"
+       "array([ 0.74  ,  2.8   ,  7.065 , 22.18  , 58.5515])"
       ]
      },
      "execution_count": 7,
@@ -551,7 +551,7 @@
     {
      "data": {
       "text/plain": [
-       "(0.18, 60.93)"
+       "(0.18, 58.83)"
       ]
      },
      "execution_count": 8,
@@ -653,7 +653,7 @@
     {
      "data": {
       "text/plain": [
-       "0.9284483972879759"
+       "0.9288737193351585"
       ]
      },
      "execution_count": 10,
@@ -704,9 +704,9 @@
      "data": {
       "text/plain": [
        "{'code': 'comb',\n",
-       " 'average': 11.873,\n",
-       " 'hdi': (0.1, 57.69),\n",
-       " 'range': array([ 0.807,  2.61 ,  5.84 , 17.54 , 68.541]),\n",
+       " 'average': 17.717200000000002,\n",
+       " 'hdi': (0.18, 65.66),\n",
+       " 'range': array([ 0.64  ,  2.86  ,  6.9   , 19.17  , 59.2875]),\n",
        " 'max_observed': 77.1}"
       ]
      },
@@ -833,82 +833,82 @@
        "  <tbody>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>0</th>\n",
-       "      <td>('zurichsee_kusnachterhorn_thirkell-whitej', '...</td>\n",
-       "      <td>zurichsee_kusnachterhorn_thirkell-whitej</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2018-01-28</td>\n",
-       "      <td>51</td>\n",
-       "      <td>3.63</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>('aare_kehrsatz_stolten', '2017-07-03')</td>\n",
+       "      <td>aare_kehrsatz_stolten</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2017-07-03</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.10</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>5</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>1</th>\n",
-       "      <td>('zugersee_immensee_guedesd', '2017-04-30')</td>\n",
-       "      <td>zugersee_immensee_guedesd</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2017-04-30</td>\n",
-       "      <td>170</td>\n",
-       "      <td>8.15</td>\n",
+       "      <td>('birs_basel_laderachs', '2018-03-24')</td>\n",
+       "      <td>birs_basel_laderachs</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2018-03-24</td>\n",
+       "      <td>31</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.12</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>3</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
-       "      <td>('aare_koniz_hoppej', '2017-12-25')</td>\n",
-       "      <td>aare_koniz_hoppej</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2017-12-25</td>\n",
-       "      <td>47</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2.16</td>\n",
+       "      <td>('limmat_zurich_mortensena_meiera', '2017-08-07')</td>\n",
+       "      <td>limmat_zurich_mortensena_meiera</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2017-08-07</td>\n",
+       "      <td>39</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.32</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
-       "      <td>('villa-barton', '2016-04-10')</td>\n",
-       "      <td>villa-barton</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2016-04-10</td>\n",
-       "      <td>79</td>\n",
-       "      <td>5.63</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>('birs_reinach_dinuccin', '2017-05-29')</td>\n",
+       "      <td>birs_reinach_dinuccin</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2017-05-29</td>\n",
+       "      <td>138</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3.86</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
        "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
-       "      <td>('thur_schwarzenbach_meiliw', '2017-05-03')</td>\n",
-       "      <td>thur_schwarzenbach_meiliw</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2017-05-03</td>\n",
-       "      <td>41</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.54</td>\n",
+       "      <td>('vierwaldstattersee_weggis_schoberls_1', '201...</td>\n",
+       "      <td>vierwaldstattersee_weggis_schoberls_1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2018-01-27</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.21</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
        "      <td>2</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
@@ -917,31 +917,31 @@
       ],
       "text/plain": [
        "                                           sample_id  \\\n",
-       "0  ('zurichsee_kusnachterhorn_thirkell-whitej', '...   \n",
-       "1        ('zugersee_immensee_guedesd', '2017-04-30')   \n",
-       "2                ('aare_koniz_hoppej', '2017-12-25')   \n",
-       "3                     ('villa-barton', '2016-04-10')   \n",
-       "4        ('thur_schwarzenbach_meiliw', '2017-05-03')   \n",
+       "0            ('aare_kehrsatz_stolten', '2017-07-03')   \n",
+       "1             ('birs_basel_laderachs', '2018-03-24')   \n",
+       "2  ('limmat_zurich_mortensena_meiera', '2017-08-07')   \n",
+       "3            ('birs_reinach_dinuccin', '2017-05-29')   \n",
+       "4  ('vierwaldstattersee_weggis_schoberls_1', '201...   \n",
        "\n",
-       "                                   location       date  quantity  pcs/m  \\\n",
-       "0  zurichsee_kusnachterhorn_thirkell-whitej 2018-01-28        51   3.63   \n",
-       "1                 zugersee_immensee_guedesd 2017-04-30       170   8.15   \n",
-       "2                         aare_koniz_hoppej 2017-12-25        47   2.16   \n",
-       "3                              villa-barton 2016-04-10        79   5.63   \n",
-       "4                 thur_schwarzenbach_meiliw 2017-05-03        41   0.54   \n",
+       "                                location       date  quantity  pcs/m  \\\n",
+       "0                  aare_kehrsatz_stolten 2017-07-03         5   0.10   \n",
+       "1                   birs_basel_laderachs 2018-03-24        31   1.12   \n",
+       "2        limmat_zurich_mortensena_meiera 2017-08-07        39   1.32   \n",
+       "3                  birs_reinach_dinuccin 2017-05-29       138   3.86   \n",
+       "4  vierwaldstattersee_weggis_schoberls_1 2018-01-27         5   0.21   \n",
        "\n",
        "  public services streets orchards vineyards buildings forest undefined  \\\n",
-       "0               1       1        1         1         5      1         1   \n",
-       "1               1       1        1         1         1      3         2   \n",
-       "2               1       4        1         1         4      1         1   \n",
-       "3               2       2        1         1         5      1         1   \n",
-       "4               1       2        1         1         2      1         3   \n",
+       "0               1       3        1         1         2      1         3   \n",
+       "1               1       3        1         1         4      1         1   \n",
+       "2               1       3        1         1         5      1         1   \n",
+       "3               1       3        1         1         4      2         1   \n",
+       "4               1       1        1         1         2      1         4   \n",
        "\n",
        "  buildings_public services  \n",
        "0                         1  \n",
        "1                         1  \n",
        "2                         1  \n",
-       "3                         2  \n",
+       "3                         1  \n",
        "4                         1  "
       ]
      },
@@ -995,10 +995,10 @@
     {
      "data": {
       "text/plain": [
-       "{'range': array([ 0.3  ,  1.   ,  2.2  ,  4.525, 16.51 ]),\n",
+       "{'range': array([0.3  , 0.675, 2.3  , 4.7  , 9.97 ]),\n",
        " 'nsamples': 100,\n",
-       " 'average': 4.4830000000000005,\n",
-       " 'hdi': (0.2, 18.6)}"
+       " 'average': 3.6220000000000003,\n",
+       " 'hdi': (0.1, 15.100000000000001)}"
       ]
      },
      "execution_count": 14,