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Publications 2003-2023

(Researchers supported by PCMDI funding are in bold face font)

2023

Ahn, M.-S., P. A. Ullrich, P. J. Gleckler, J. Lee, A. C. Ordonez, and A. G. Pendergrass, 2023: Evaluating Precipitation Distributions at Regional Scales: A benchmarking framework and application to CMIP5 and CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., doi: 10.5194/egusphere-2022-1106, under review.
Santer, B. D., S. Po-Chedley, L. Zhao, C.-Z. Zou, Q. Fu, S. Solomon, D. W. J. Thompson, C. Mears, and K. E. Taylor, 2023: Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., in press.
Diffenbaugh, N. S. and E. A. Barnes, 2023: Data-driven predictions of the time remaining until critical global warming thresholds are reached. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 120 (6) e2207183120, doi: 10.1073/pnas.2207183120.
Tesdal, J.-E., G. A. MacGilchrist, R. L. Beadling, S. M. Griffies, J. P. Krasting and P. J. Durack, 2023: Revisiting interior water mass responses to surface forcing changes and the subsequent effects on overturning in the Southern Ocean. J. Geophys. Res.: Oceans, 128 (3), e2022JC019105, doi: 10.1029/2022JC019105.
Zhou, C., M. Wang, M. D. Zelinka, Y. Liu, Y. Dong, K. C. Armour, 2023: Explaining Forcing Efficacy with Pattern Effect and State Dependence, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2022GL101700.
Beobide-Arsuaga, G., A. Düsterhus, W. A. Müller, E. A. Barnes and J. Baehr, 2023: Spring regional sea surface temperatures as a precursor of European summer heatwaves. Geophys. Res. Lett. 50 (2), doi: 10.1029/2022gl100727.

2022

Po-Chedley, S., J. T. Fasullo, N. Siler, E. A. Barnes, Z. M. Labe, C. J. W. Bonfils, B. D. Santer, 2022: Internal variability and forcing influence model-satellite differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 119 (47) e2209431119, doi: 10.1073/pnas.2209431119.
Ahn, M.-S., P. J. Gleckler, J. Lee, A. G. Pendergrass, and C. Jakob, 2022: Benchmarking simulated precipitation variability across timescales. J. Clim., 35, 3173--3196, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0542.1.
Chen, D., J. Norris, C. W. Thackeray and A. Hall, 2022: Increasing precipitation whiplash in climate change hotspots. Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 124011, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aca3b9.
Hausfather, Z., K. Marvel, G. A. Schmidt, J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, and M. D. Zelinka, 2022: Climate simulations: recognize the 'hot model' problem. Nature, doi: 10.1038/d41586-022-01192-2.
Kim, D., D. Kang, M.-S. Ahn, C. DeMott, C.-W. Hsu, C. Yoo, L. R. Leung, S. Hagos, and P. J. Rasch, 2022: The Madden--Julian Oscillation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 14, 1--25, doi: .
Kim, K.-B., K.-S. Lim, and J. Lee, 2022: Numerical errors in ice microphysics parameterizations and their effects on simulated regional climate. Asia Pac. J. Atm. Sci., doi: 10.1007/s13143-022-00288-z.
Ma, H.-Y., S. A. Klein, J. Lee, M.-S. Ahn, C. Tao and P. J. Gleckler, 2022: Superior daily and sub-daily precipitation statistics for intense and long-lived storms in global storm-resolving models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 49 (8) e2021GL096759, doi: 10.1029/2021GL096759.
Ma, P. L., et al. including S. A. Klein and M. D. Zelinka, 2022: Better calibration of cloud parameterizations and subgrid effects increases the fidelity of the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1. Geosci. Model Dev., 15(7), 2881-2916, doi: 10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022.
Norris, J., A. Hall, C. W. Thackeray, D. Chen and G. D. Madakumbura, 2022: Evaluating hydrologic sensitivity in CMIP6 models: anthropogenic forcing versus ENSO, J. Climate, 35, 3355-3368, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0842.1.
Norris, J., D. Chen, A. Hall, and C. W. Thackeray, 2022: Moisture-budget drivers of global projections of meteorological drought from multiple GCM large ensembles, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 127, e2022JD037745, doi: 10.1029/2022JD037745.
Arcodia, M., E. A. Barnes, C. Connolly, F. Davenport, Z. C. Frontera, E. Gordon, D. Hueholt, A. Mamalakis and E. Valkonen, 2022: Applied machine learning tutorial for Earth scientists. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.6686879 (not peer reviewed).
Mayer, K. J. and E. A. Barnes, 2022: Quantifying the effect of climate change on midlatitude subseasonal prediction skill provided by the tropics. Geophys. Res. Lett., 49 (14) e2022GL098663, doi: 10.1029/2022GL098663.
Peace, A, B. Booth, L. Regayre, K. Carslaw, D. Sexton, C. Bonfils, J. Rostron, 2022: Evaluating uncertainty in aerosol forcing of tropical precipitation shifts. Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1215--1232, doi: 10.5194/esd-13-1215-2022.
Persad, G.G., B.H. Samset and L.J. Wilcox, 2022: Aerosols must be included in climate risk assessments. Nature, 611:662-664. Co-signatories: R.J. Allen, M.A. Bollasina, B.B.B. Booth, C. Bonfils, M. Joshi, M.T. Lund, K. Marvel, J. Merikanto, K. Nordling, S. Undorf, D. van Vuuren, D.M. Westervelt, A. Zhao, doi: 10.1038/d41586-022-03763-9.
Po-Chedley, S, J. R. Christy, L. Haimberger, and C. A. Mears, 2022: Tropospheric Temperature [in "State of the Climate in 2021"], Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 103 (8) S36 - S39, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0092.1.
Qin, Y., M. D. Zelinka, and S. A. Klein, 2022: On the Correspondence between Atmosphere-Only and Coupled Simulations for Radiative Feedbacks and Forcing from CO2, J. Geophys. Res., 127, e2021JD035460. doi:10.1029/2021JD035460.
Samset, B., C. Zhou, J. Fuglestvedt, M. Lund, J. Marotzke, M. D. Zelinka, 2022: Earlier emergence of a temperature response to mitigation by filtering annual variability, Nat. Commun., 13, 1578, doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-29247-y.
Thackeray, C. W., A. Hall, J. Norris and D. Chen, 2022: Constraining the increased frequency of global precipitation extremes under warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 441--448, doi: 10.1038/s41558-022-01329-1.
Labe, Z. M. and E. A. Barnes, 2022: Predicting slowdowns in decadal climate warming trends with explainable neural networks. Geophys. Res. Lett. 49 (9), doi: 10.1029/2022gl098173.
Santer, B. D., S. Po-Chedley, N. Feldl, J. C. Fyfe, Q. Fu, S. Solomon, M. England, K. B. Rodgers, M. F. Stuecker, C. Mears, C.-Z. Zou, C. J. W. Bonfils, G. Pallotta, M. D. Zelinka, N. Rosenbloom, and J. Edwards, 2022: Robust anthropogenic signal identified in the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature, J. Clim., 35 (18), 6075-6100, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0766.1.
Tao, C., S. Xie, S. Tang, J. Lee, H.-Y. Ma, C. Zhang, and W. Lin, 2022: Diurnal cycle of precipitation over global monsoon systems in CMIP6 simulations. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-022-06546-0
Thackeray, C.W., A. Hall, J. Norris, and D. Chen, 2022: Constraining the increased frequency of global precipitation extremes under warming. Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 441--448, doi: 10.1038/s41558-022-01329-1.
Wang, Y., J. Mao J, F. Hoffman, C. Bonfils, H. Douville, M. Jin, P.E. Thornton, D. Ricciuto, X. Shi, H. Chen, S.D. Wullschleger, 2022, Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity, Nat. Commun., 13, 1-11, doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-34071-5.
Zelinka, M. D., I. Tan, L. Oreopoulos, G. Tselioudis, 2022: Detailing cloud property feedbacks with a regime-based decomposition, Clim Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-022-06488-7.
Zelinka, M. D., S. A. Klein, Y. Qin, and T. A. Myers, 2022: Evaluating climate models' cloud feedbacks against expert judgment, J. Geophys. Res., 127, e2021JD035198, doi: 10.1029/2021JD035198.

2021

Caldwell, P. M., and coauthors including H.-Y. Ma, 2021: Convection-permitting simulations with the E3SM global atmosphere model. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., doi: 10.1029/2021MS002544.
Chen, D., A. Dai, and A. Hall, 2021: The convective-to-total precipitation ratio and the "drizzling" bias in climate models. J. Geophys. Res.-Atm., 126, e2020JD034198, doi: 10.1029/2020JD034198.
Chen, D., J. Norris, N. Goldenson, C. W. Thackeray, and A. Hall, 2021: A distinct atmospheric mode for California precipitation. J. Geophys. Res.-Atm., 126, e2020JD034403, doi: 10.1029/2020JD034403.
Dileepkumar, R., K. AchutoRao, C. Bonfils, T. Arulalan, 2021: On the emergence of human influence on surface air temperature changes over India. J. Geophys. Res.-Atm., 126, e2020JD032911, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032911.
Hahn, L. C., K. C. Armour, M. D. Zelinka, C. M. Bitz, and A. Donohoe, 2021: Contributions to polar amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. Front. Earth Sci., 9:710036, doi: 10.3389/feart.2021.710036.
Kang, D., D. Kim, M.‐S. Ahn, and S.-Il An, 2021: The role of background meridional moisture gradient on the propagation of the MJO over the Maritime Continent. J. Climate, 34, 6565--6581, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0085.1.
Lee, J., K. Sperber, P. Gleckler, K. Taylor, and C. Bonfils, 2021: Benchmarking performance changes in the simulation of extratropical modes of variability across CMIP generations. J. Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0832.1.
Lee, J., and co-authors including P. Gleckler, K. Sperber, and G. Pallotta, 2021: On the robustness of the evaluation of ENSO in climate models: How many ensemble members are needed? Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL095041, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095041.
Lim, K.-S. S., J.-M. Lim, J. Lee, and H. H. Shin, 2021: Impact of boundary layer simulation on predicting radioactive pollutant dispersion: a case study for HANARO Research Reactor using the WRF-MMIF-CALPUFF modeling system. Nuclear Engineering and Technology, 53, 244--252, doi: 10.1016/j.net.2020.06.011.
Ma, H.-Y., C. Zhou, Y. Zhang, S. A. Klein, M. D. Zelinka, X. Zheng, S. Xie, W.-T. Chen, and C.-M. Wu, 2021: A multi-year short-range hindcast experiment for evaluating climate model moist processes from diurnal to interannual time scales. Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 73-90, doi: 10.5194/gmd-14-73-2021.
Ma, H.-Y., K. Zhang, S. Tang, S. Xie, and R. Fu, 2021: Evaluation of the causes of wet-season dry biases over Amazonia in CAM5. J. Geophys. Res.Atm., 126, e2020JD033859, doi: 10.1029/2020JD0033859.
Madakumbura, G. D., C. W. Thackeray, J. Norris, N. Goldenson, and A. Hall, 2021: Anthropogenic influence on extreme precipitation over global land areas seen in multiple observational datasets. Nature Commun., 12, 3944, doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-24262-x.
Marvel, K., B. Cook, C. Bonfils, J. E. Smerdon, A. P. Williams, H. Liu, 2021: Projected changes to hydroclimate seasonality in the continental United States. Earth's Future, 9, e2021EF002019. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002019.
McDougall, T. J., P. M. Barker, R. M. Holmes, R. Pawlowicz, S. M. Griffies, and P. J. Durack, 2021: The interpretation of temperature and salinity variables in numerical ocean model output, and the calculation of heat fluxes and heat content. Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6445--6466, doi: 10.5194/gmd-14-6445-2021.
Myers, T. A., R. C. Scott, M. D. Zelinka, S. A. Klein, J. R. Norris, and P. M. Caldwell, 2021: Observational constraints on low cloud feedback reduce uncertainty of climate sensitivity. Nature Clim. Change, 11, 501-507, doi: 10.1038/s41558-021-01039-0.
Norris, J., A. Hall, J. D. Neelin,C. W. Thackeray, and D. Chen, 2021: Evaluation of the tail of the probability distribution of daily and sub-daily precipitation in CMIP6 models. J. Climate,34, 2701-2721, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0182.1.
Norris, J., A. Hall, D. Chen, C. Thackeray, and G. Madakumbura, 2021: Assessing the representation of synoptic variability associated with California extreme precipitation in CMIP6 models. J. Geophys. Res.Atm., 126, e2020JD033938, doi: 10.1029/2020JD033938.
Pan, B., and coauthors including C. Bonfils, J. Lee and H.-Y. Ma, 2021: Learning to correct climate projection biases. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 13, e2021MS002509. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002509.
Petrie, R., and co-authors including S. Ames, 2021: Coordinating an operational data distribution network for CMIP6 data. Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 629--644, doi: 10.5194/gmd-14-629-2021.
Pihl, E. and co-authors including M. D. Zelinka, 2021: 10 new insights in climate science 2020 - a horizon scan. Global Sustainability, 4, e5, 1--18, doi: 10.1017/sus.2021.2.
Planton, Y. Y., and co-authors including J. Lee and P. J. Gleckler, 2021: Evaluating El Niño in climate models with the CLIVAR 2020 ENSO metrics package. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 33, E193--E217, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0337.1.
Po-Chedley, S., B. D. Santer, S. Fueglistaler, M. D. Zelinka, P. J. Cameron-Smith, J. Painter, and Q. Fu, 2021: Natural variability contributes to model-satellite differences in tropical tropospheric warming, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 118, e2020962118, doi: 10.1073/pnas.2020962118.
Po-Chedley, S., J. R. Christy, L. Haimberger, and C. A. Mears, 2021: Tropospheric Temperature [in " State of the Climate in 2020"], Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 102, S57 - S60, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0098.1.
Ren, P., D. Kim, M.-S. Ahn, D. Kang, and H.-L. Ren, 2021: Intercomparison of MJO column moist static energy and water vapor budget among six modern reanalysis products. J. Climate, 34, 2977--3001, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0653.1.
Santer, B. D., and co-authors including S. Po-Chedley, J. F. Painter, and M. D. Zelinka, 2021: Using climate model simulations to constrain observations. J. Climate, 34, 6281--6301, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0768.1.
Sung, H. M., and co-authors including J. Lee, 2021: Climate change projection in the twenty-first century simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 model based on new GHGs concentration pathways. Asia-Pacific J. Atmos. Sci., https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-021-00225-6.
Szuwalski, C. and co-authors including J. Lee, 2021: Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 78, 502--515, doi: 10.1093/icesjms/faa140.
Tang, S., P. J. Gleckler, S. Xie, J. Lee, M.-S. Ahn, C. Covey, and C. Zhang, 2021: Evaluating diurnal and semi-diurnal cycle of precipitation in CMIP6 models using satellite- and ground-based observations, J. Climate, 34, 3189--3210, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0639.1.
Tang, S., and coauthors including H.-Y. Ma, 2021: Long-term single-column model intercomparison on the diurnal cycle of precipitation over midlatitude and tropical land. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 1--29, doi: 10.1002/qj.4222.
Tao, C., and coauthors including H.-Y. Ma, 2021: Land-atmosphere coupling at the U.S. Southern Great Plains: A comparison on local convective regimes between ARM observations, reanalysis, and climate model simulations. J. Hydrometeorology, 22, 463--481, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-20-0078.1.
Thackeray, C. W.,A. Hall, M. D. Zelinka, and C. G. Fletcher, 2021: Assessing prior emergent constraints on surface albedo feedback in CMIP6. J. Climate, 34, 3889-3905, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0703.1.
Wang, Y., and co-authors including H.-Y. Ma, 2021: Disproportionate control on aerosol burden by light rain. Nature Geoscience, 14, 72--76, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-00675-z.
Wang, Y., and co-authors including H.-Y. Ma, 2021: Effects of coupling a stochastic convective parameterization with the Zhang--McFarlane scheme on precipitation simulation in the DOE E3SMv1.0 atmosphere model. Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1575--1593, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1575-2021.
Wehner, M., J. Lee, M. Risser, P.A. Ullrich, P. Gleckler, and W. Collins, 2021: Evaluation of extreme sub-daily precipitation in high-resolution global climate model simulations. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 379, 20190545, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0545.
Williamson, M. S., C. W. Thackeray, P. M. Cox, A. Hall, C. Huntingford, and F. J. M. Nijsse, 2021: Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities. Rev. Mod. Phys., 93, 025004, doi: 10.1103/RevModPhys.93.025004.
Zhou, C., M. D. Zelinka, A. E. Dessler, and M. Wang, 2021: Greater committed warming after accounting for the SST pattern effect. Nature Clim. Change, 11, 132--136, doi: 10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x.

2020

Ahn, M.-S., D. Kim, J. Lee, K. R. Sperber, P. J. Gleckler, X. Jiang, Y.-G. Ham, and H. Kim, 2020: MJO propagation across the Maritime Continent: Are CMIP6 models better than CMIP5 models? Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL087250, doi: 10.1029/2020GL087250.
Bonfils, C., B. D. Santer, J. Fyfe, K. Marvel, T. Phillips, S. Zimmerman, 2020: Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall, and continental aridity. Nature Clim. Change, 10, 726–731, doi: 10.1038/s41558-020-0821-1.
Ma, H.-Y., and Coauthors including J. Lee, A. C. Siongco and S. A. Klein, 2020: On the correspondence between seasonal forecast biases and long-term climate biases in sea surface temperature. J. Climate, 34, 427–446, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0338.1.
Pallotta, G. and B. D. Santer, 2020: Multi-frequency analysis of simulated versus observed variability in tropospheric temperature. J. Climate, 33, 10383–10402, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0023.1.
Siongco, A. C., H.-Y. Ma, S. A. Klein, S. Xie, A. Karspeck, J. L. Anderson, K. Raeder, 2020: A hindcast approach to diagnosing the equatorial Pacific cold tongue SST bias in CESM1. J. Climate, 33, 1437–1453, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0513.1.
Sperber, K. R., H. Annamalai, and G. Pallotta, 2020: CMIP5: A Monte Carlo assessment of changes in summertime precipitation characteristics under RCP8.5-sensitivity to annual cycle fidelity, overconfidence, and Gaussianity. Clim. Dyn., 54, 1699–1727, doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-05082-8.
Zelinka, M. D., T. A. Myers, D. T. McCoy, S. Po-Chedley, P. M. Caldwell, P. Ceppi, S. A. Klein, and K. E. Taylor, 2020: Causes of higher climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085782, doi: 10.1029/2019GL085782.
Bretherton, C. S. and P. M. Caldwell, 2020: Combining emergent constraints for climate sensitivity. J. Climate, 33, 7413–7430, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0911.1.
Dong, Y. K. C. Armour, M. D. Zelinka, C. Proistosescu, D. S. Battisti, C. Zhou, and T. Andrews, 2020: Inter-model spread in the pattern effect and its contribution to climate sensitivity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. J. Climate, 33, 7755–7775, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1011.1.
Juckes, M., K. E. Taylor, P. J. Durack, B. Lawrence, M. S. Mizielinski, A. Pamment, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, M. Rixen, and S. Senesi, 2020: The CMIP6 Data Request (DREQ, version 01.00.31). Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 201–224, doi: 10.5194/gmd-13-201-2020.
Kang, D., D. Kim, M.-S. Ahn, R. Neale, J. Lee, and P. J. Gleckler, 2020: The role of the mean state on MJO simulation in CESM2 ensemble simulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL089824, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089824.
Marvel, K., M. Biasutti, and C. Bonfils, 2020: Fingerprints of external forcings on Sahel rainfall: aerosols, greenhouse gases, and model-observation discrepancies. Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 084023, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab858e.
Meehl, G. E., C. A. Senior, V. Eyring, G. Flato, J.-F. Lamarque, R. J. Stouffer, K. E. Taylor, and M. Schlund, 2020: Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 earth system models. Science Advances, 6, eaba1981, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aba1981.
Orbe, C., and co-authors including P. J. Gleckler, J. Lee, and K. Sperber, 2020: Representation of Modes of Variability in 6 U.S. Climate Models. J. Climate, 33, 7591–7617, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0956.1.
Pascoe, C., B. N. Lawrence, E. Guilyardi, M. Juckes, and K. E. Taylor, 2020: Designing and documenting experiments in CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2149–2167, doi: 10.5194/gmd-13-2149-2020.
Pendergrass, A., P. J. Gleckler, L. Ruby Leung, and C. Jakob, 2020: Benchmarking simulated precipitation in Earth System Models. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 101, E814–E816, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0318.1.
Pendergrass, A. and co-authors including C. Bonfils, 2020: Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Nature Clim. Change, 10, 191–199, doi: 10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0.
Qian, Y. and co-authors including H.-Y. Ma, 2020: Neglecting irrigation contributes to the simulated summertime warm-and-dry bias in the central United States. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 3, 31, doi: 10.1038/s41612-020-00135-w.
Rieger, L. A., and co-authors including P. J. Durack and S. Po-Chedley, 2020: Quantifying CanESM5 and EAMv1 sensitivities to volcanic forcing for the CMIP6 historical experiment. Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4831–4843, doi: 10.5194/gmd-2019-381.
Scott, R. C., T. A. Myers, J. R. Norris, M. D. Zelinka, S. A. Klein, M. Sun, and D. R. Doelling, 2020: Observed sensitivity of low cloud radiative effects to meteorological perturbations over the global oceans, J. Climate, 33, 7717–7734, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1028.1.
Silvy, Y., E. Guilyardi, J.-B. Sallee, and P. J. Durack, 2020: Human-induced changes to the global ocean water-masses and their time of emergence. Nature Clim. Change, 10, 1030–1036, doi: 10.1038/s41558-020-0878-x.
Sherwood, S., and co-authors including S. A. Klein and M. D. Zelinka, 2020: An assessment of Earth’s climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence. Rev. Geophys., 58, e2019RG000678, doi: 10.1029/2019RG000678.
Steiner, A., and co-authors including B. D. Santer, 2020: Observed temperature changes in the troposphere and stratosphere from 1979 to 2018. J. Climate, 33, 8165–8194, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0998.1.
Stephens, G. L., J. M. Slingo, E. Rignot, J. T. Reager, M. Z. Hakuba, P. J. Durack, and J. Worden, 2020: Earth's water reservoirs in a changing climate. Proc. Roy. Soc. A, 476: 20190458, doi: 10.1098/rspa.2019.0458.
Waliser, D., and co-authors including P. J. Gleckler, K. E. Taylor, S. Ames, and P. J. Durack, 2020: Observations for Model Intercomparison Project (Obs4MIPs): Status for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2945–2958, doi: 10.5194/gmd-2019-268.
Wehner, M., P. J. Gleckler, and J. Lee, 2020: Characterization of long period return values of extreme daily precipitation and temperature in the CMIP6 models. Weather and Climate Extremes, 30, 100283, doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100283.
Zhang, M. S. Xie, X. Liu, W. Lin, K. Zhang, H.-Y. Ma, X. Zheng, and Y. Zhang, 2020: Toward understanding the simulated phase partitioning of Arctic single-layer mixed-phase clouds in E3SM. Earth and Space Science, 7, e2020EA001125, doi: 10.1029/2020EA001125.
Zhou, C., Y. Hu, J. Lu, and M. D. Zelinka, 2020: Responses of the Hadley Circulation to regional sea surface temperature changes, J. Climate, 33, 429–441, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0315.1.

2019

Hall, A. D., P. Cox, C. Huntingford, and S. A. Klein, 2019: Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change. Nature Clim. Change, 9, 269–278, doi: 10.1038/s41558-019-0436-6.
Lee, J., K. R. Sperber, P. J. Gleckler, C. J. W. Bonfils, and K. E. Taylor, 2019a: Quantifying the agreement between observed and simulated extratropical modes of interannual variability. Clim. Dynam., 52, 4057–4089, doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4355-4.
Lee, J., Y. Xue, F. De Sales, I. Diallo, L. Marx, M. Ek, K. R. Sperber, and P. J. Gleckler, 2019c: Evaluation of multi-decadal UCLA-CFSv2 simulation and impact of interactive atmospheric-ocean feedback on global and regional variability. Clim. Dynam., 52, 3683–3707, doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4351-8.
Phillips, T., C. Bonfils, J. Zhang, 2019: Model consensus projections of US regional hydroclimates under greenhouse warming. Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 014005, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf03d.
Po-Chedley, S., M. D. Zelinka, N. Jeevanjee, T. J. Thorsen, and B. D. Santer, 2019: Climatology explains intermodel spread in upper tropospheric cloud and relative humidity response to greenhouse warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, 13399–13409, doi: 10.1029/2019GL084786.
Santer, B. D., C. Bonfils, Q. Fu, J. C. Fyfe, G. C. Hegerl, C. Mears, J. F. Painter, S. Po-Chedley, F. J. Wentz, M. D. Zelinka, and C.-Z. Zou, 2019: Celebrating the anniversary of three key events in climate change science. Nature Clim. Change, 9, 180–182, doi: 10.1038/s41558-019-0424-x.
Santer, B. D., J. C. Fyfe, S. Solomon, J. F. Painter, C. Bonfils, G. Pallotta, and M. D. Zelinka, 2019: Quantifying stochastic uncertainty in detection time of human-caused climate signals. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 116, 19821–19827, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1904586116.
Terai, C. R., Y. Zhang, S. A. Klein, M. D. Zelinka, J. C. Chiu, and Q. Min, 2019: Mechanisms behind the extratropical stratiform low‐cloud optical depth response to temperature in ARM site observations. J. Geophys. Res., 124, 2127–2147, doi: 10.1029/2018JD029359.
Caldwell, P. M., and Coauthors including S. A. Klein, 2019: The DOE E3SM coupled model version 1: Description and results at high resolution. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 11, 4095–4146, doi: 10.1029/2019MS001870.
Chen, W.-T., C.-M. Wu, and H.-Y. Ma, 2019b: Evaluating the bias of South China Sea summer monsoon precipitation associated with fast physical processes using climate model hindcast approach. J. Climate, 32, 4491–4507, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0660.1.
Chen, Y.-J., Y.-T. Hwang, M. D. Zelinka, and C. Zhou, 2019c: Distinct patterns of cloud changes associated with decadal variability and their contribution to observed cloud cover trends. J. Climate, 32, 7281–7301, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0443.1.
Colman, R., J. R. Brown, C. Franklin, L. Hanson, H. Ye, and M. D. Zelinka, 2019: Evaluating cloud feedbacks and rapid responses in the ACCESS model. J. Geophys. Res., 124, 350–366, doi: 10.1029/2018JD029189.
Eyring, V., and Coauthors including P. J. Gleckler, P. Caldwell, A. D. Hall, S. A. Klein, and B. D. Santer, 2019: Taking climate model evaluation to the next level. Nature Clim. Change, 9, 102–110, doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y.
Golaz, J.-C., and Coauthors including S. A. Klein and M. D. Zelinka, 2019: The DOE E3SM coupled model version 1: Overview and evaluation at standard resolution, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 11, 2089–2129, doi: 10.1029/2018MS001603.
Hao, Z.., T. J. Phillips, F. Hao, X. Wu, 2019: Changes in the dependence between global precipitation and temperature from observations and model simulations. Int. J. Climatol., 39, 4895–4906, doi: 10.1002/joc.6111.
Marvel, K. B. I. Cook, C. Bonfils, P. J. Durack, J. E. Smerdon, and A. P. Williams, 2019: Twentieth century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence. Nature, 569, 59–65, doi: 10.1038/s41586-019-1149-8.
Palmer, M. D., P. J. Durack, M. P. Chidichimo, J. A. Church, S. Cravatte, K. Hill, J. Johannessen, J. Karstensen, T. Lee, D. Legler, M. Mazloff, E. Oka, S. Purkey, B. Rabe, J.-B. Sallee, B. M. Sloyan, S. Speich, K. von Schuckmann, J. Willis and S. E. Wijffels, 2019: Adequacy of the Ocean Observation System for Quantifying Regional Heat and Freshwater Storage and Change. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6 (Article 416), doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00416
Park, H.-H, J. Lee, E.-C. Chang, and M. Joh, 2019: High-resolution simulation of snowfall over the Korean eastern coastal region using WRF model: Sensitivity to domain nesting-down strategy. Asia-Pacific J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 493–506, doi: 10.1007/s13143-019-00108-x.
van Rensch, P., J. Arblaster, A. J. Gallant, W. Cai, N. Nicholls and P. J. Durack, 2019: Mechanisms causing east Australian spring rainfall differences between three strong El Nino events. Clim. Dyn., 53, 3641–3659, doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04732-1.
Zhang, Y., S. Xie, W. Lin, S. A. Klein, M. D. Zelinka, P.-L. Ma, P. J. Rasch, Y. Qian, Q. Tang, and H.-Y. Ma, 2019: Evaluation of clouds in version 1 of E3SM Atmosphere Model with satellite simulators. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 11, 1253–1268, doi: 10.1029/2018MS001562.

2018

Caldwell, P. M., M. D. Zelinka, and S. A. Klein, 2018: Evaluating emergent constraints on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. J. Climate, 31, 3921–3942, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-00631.1.
Covey, C., C. Doutriaux, P. J. Gleckler, K. E. Taylor, K. E. Trenberth, and Y. Zhang, 2018: High-frequency intermittency in observed and model-simulated precipitation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12514–12512, doi: 10.1029/2018GL078926.
Durack, P. J., P. J. Gleckler, S. G. Purkey, G. C. Johnson, J. M. Lyman, and T. P. Boyer, 2018a: Ocean warming: From the surface to the deep in observations and models. Oceanography, 32, 41–51. doi: 10.5670/oceanog.2018.227.
Durack, P. J., A. SenGupta, and L. H. Smedsrud, 2018b. From the Guest Editors: Introduction to the Special Issue on Ocean Warming. Oceanography, 32, 28–31, doi: 10.5670/oceanog.2018.226.
Durack, P. J., K. E. Taylor, V. Eyring, S. K. Ames, T. Hoang, D. Nadeau, C. Doutriaux, M. Stockhause and P. J. Gleckler, 2018c. Toward standardized data sets for climate model experimentation. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 99, doi: 10.1029/2018EO101751.
Ma, H.-Y., and Coauthors including S. A. Klein and C. Zhang, 2018: CAUSES: On the role of surface energy budget errors to the warm surface air temperature error over the Central United States. J. Geophys. Res.-Atm., 123, 2888–2909, doi: 10.1002/2017JD027194.
Po-Chedley, S., K. C. Armour, C. M. Bitz, M. D. Zelinka, B. D Santer, and Q. Fu, 2018: Sources of intermodel spread in the lapse rate and water vapor feedbacks, J. Climate, 31, 3187–3206, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0674.1.
Po-Chedley, S., C. Proistosescu, K. C. Armour, and B. D. Santer, 2018: Climate constraint reflects forced signal. Nature, 563, E6–E9, doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0640-y.
Qu, X., A. Hall, A. M. DeAngelis, M. D. Zelinka, S. A. Klein, H. Su, B. Tian, and C. Zhai, 2018: On the emergent constraints of climate sensitivity. J. Climate, 31, 863–875, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-00482.1.
Santer, B. D., S. Po-Chedley, M. D. Zelinka, I. Cvijanovic, C. Bonfils, P. J. Durack, Q. Fu, J. Kiehl, C. Mears, J. Painter, G. Pallotta, S. Solomon, F. J. Wentz, and C.-Z. Zou, 2018: Human influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature. Science, 361, eaas8806, doi: 10.1126/science.aas8806.
Zelinka, M. D., K. M. Grise, S. A. Klein, C. Zhou, A. M. DeAngelis, and M. W. Christensen, 2018: Drivers of the low cloud response to poleward jet shifts in the North Pacific in observations and models. J. Climate, 31, 7925–7947, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0114.1.
Zhang, C., S. Xie, S. A. Klein, H.-Y. Ma, S. Tang, K. Van Weverberg, C. J. Morcrette, and J. Petch, 2018b: CAUSES: Diagnosis of the summertime warm bias in CMIP5 climate models at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site. J. Geophys. Res.-Atm., 123, 2968–2992, doi: 10.1002/2017JD027200.
Anderson, G. J., D. D. Lucas, and C. Bonfils, 2018: Uncertainty analysis of simulations of the turn‐of‐the‐century drought in the western United States. J. Geophys. Res.-Atm, 123, 13219–13237, doi: 10.1029/2017JD027824.
Balaji, V., K. E. Taylor, and Coauthors including P. J. Durack, 2018: Requirements for a global data infrastructure in support of CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3659–3680, doi: 10.5194/gmd-11-3659-2018.
Bandoro, J., S. Solomon, B. D. Santer, D. Kinnison, and M. Mills, 2018: Detectability of the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases upon global stratospheric ozone accounting for nonlinearities in historical forcings. Atm. Chem. Phys., 18, 143–166, doi: 10.5194/acp-18-143-2018.
Li, J. F., S. Lee, H.-Y. Ma, G. Stephens, and B. Guan, 2018: Assessment of the cloud liquid water from climate models and reanalysis using satellite observations. Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 29, 653–678, doi: 10.3319/TAO.2018.07.04.01.
Morcrette, C. J., and Coauthors including H.-Y. Ma, C. Zhang, and S. A. Klein, 2018: Introduction to CAUSES: Description of weather and climate models and their near-surface temperature errors in 5-day hindcasts near the Southern Great Plains. J. Geophys. Res.-Atm., 123, 2655–2683, doi: 10.1002/2017JD027199.
Purich, A., M. H. England, W. Cai, A. Sullivan, and P. J. Durack, 2018: Impacts of broad-scale surface freshening of the Southern Ocean in a coupled climate model. J. Climate, 31, 2613–2632, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0092.1.
Qian, Y., and Coauthors including H.-Y. Ma, 2018: Parametric sensitivity and uncertainty quantification in the version 1 of E3SM Atmosphere Model based on short Perturbed Parameters Ensemble simulations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmospheres, 123, 13046–13073, doi: 10.1029/2018JD028927.
Qin, Y., Y. Lin, S. Xu, H.-Y. Ma, and S. Xie, 2018: A diagnostic PDF cloud scheme to improve subtropical low clouds in NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5). J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 10, 320–341, doi: 10.1002/2017MS001095.
Siler, N., C. Proistosescu, and S. Po-Chedley, 2018: Natural variability has slowed the decline in western U.S. snowpack since the 1980s. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, doi: 10.1029/2018GL081080.
Terai, C. R., P. M. Caldwell, S. A. Klein, Q. Tang, and M. L. Branstetter, 2018: The atmospheric hydrologic cycle in the ACME v0.3 model. Clim. Dyn., 50, 3251–3279, doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3803-x.
Tsujino, H., and Coauthors including P. J. Durack, 2018: JRA-55 based surface dataset for driving ocean-sea-ice models (JRA55-do). Ocean Modelling, 130, 79–139, doi: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2018.07.002.
Van Weverberg, K., and Coauthors including S. A. Klein, H.-Y. Ma, and C. Zhang, 2018: CAUSES: Attribution of surface radiation biases in NWP and climate models near the U. S. Southern Great Plains. J. Geophys. Res.-Atm., 123, 3612–3644, doi: 10.1002/2017JD027188.
Zhang, T., and Coauthors including H.-Y. Ma, 2018d: Automatic tuning of the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5) by using short-term hindcasts with an improved downhill simplex optimization method. Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5189–5201, doi: 10.5194/gmd-11-5189-2018.
Zhang, Y., and Coauthors including S. A. Klein, 2018c. The ARM cloud radar simulator for global climate models: Bridging field data and climate models. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 99, 21–26, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0258.1.

2017

Bonfils, C., G. Anderson, B. D. Santer, T. J. Phillips, K. E. Taylor, Matthias Cuntz, M. D. Zelinka, K. Marvel, B. I. Cook, I. Cvijanovic, and P. J. Durack, 2017: Competing influences of anthropogenic warming, ENSO, and plant physiology on future terrestrial aridity. Journal of Climate, 30, 6883–6904, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0005.1.
Cvijanovic, I., B. D. Santer, C. Bonfils, D. D. Lucas, J. C. H. Chiang, and S. Zimmerman, 2017: Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall. Nature Communications, doi: 10.1038/41467-017-01907-4.
Klein, S. A., A. Hall, J. R. Norris, and R. Pincus, 2017: Low-cloud feedbacks from cloud-controlling factors: A review. Surv. Geophys., doi: 10.1007/s10712-017-9433-3.
Phillips, T. J., S. A. Klein, H.-Y. Ma, Q. Tang, S. Xie, I. N. Williams, J. A. Santanello, D. R. Cook, and M. S. Torn, 2017: Using ARM observations to evaluate climate model simulations of land-atmosphere coupling on the U. S. Southern Great Plains. J. Geophys. Res.-Atm., 122, 11524–11548, doi: 10.1002/2017JD027141.
Santer, B. D., J. C. Fyfe, G. Pallotta, G. M. Flato, G. A. Meehl, M. H. England, E. Hawkins, M. E. Mann, J. F. Painter, C. Bonfils, I. Cvijanovic, C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, S. Po-Chedley, Q. Fu, and C.-Z. Zou, 2017a: Causes of differences between model and satellite tropospheric warming rates. Nature Geoscience, 10, 478–485, doi: 10.1038/NGEO2973.
Santer, B. D., S. Solomon, G. Pallotta, C. Mears, S. Po-Chedley, Q. Fu, F. J. Wentz, C.-Z. Zou, J. F. Painter, I. Cvijanovic, and C. Bonfils, 2017b: Comparing tropospheric warming in climate models and satellite data. Journal of Climate, 30, 373–392, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0333.1.
Santer, B. D., S. Solomon, F. J. Wentz, Q. Fu, S. Po-Chedley, C. Mears, J. F. Painter, and C. Bonfils, 2017c: Tropospheric warming over the past two decades. Scientific Reports, 7, 2336, doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-02520-7.
Zelinka M. D., D. A. Randall, M. J. Webb, and S. A. Klein, 2017: Clearing clouds of uncertainty. Nature Clim. Change, 7, 674–678, doi: 10.1038/nclimate3402.
Zheng, X., S. A. Klein, H.-Y. Ma, P. M. Caldwell, V. E. Larson, A. Gettelman, and P. Bogenschutz, 2017: A cloudy planetary boundary layer oscillation arising from the coupling of turbulence with precipitation in climate simulations. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 9, 1973–1993, doi: 10.1002/2017MS000993.
Zhou, C., M. D. Zelinka, and S. A. Klein, 2017: Analyzing the dependence of global cloud feedback on the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature change with a Green’s Function approach. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 9, 2174–2189, doi: 10.1002/ 2017MS001096.
Ahn, M.-S., D. Kim, K. R. Sperber, I.-S. Kang, E. Maloney, D. Waliser, H. Hendon, 2017: MJO simulation in CMIP5 climate models: MJO skill metrics and process-oriented diagnosis. Clim. Dyn., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3558-4.
Ceppi, P., F. Brient, M. D. Zelinka, and D. L. Hartmann, 2017: Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global climate models. WIREs Climate Change, e465, doi: 10.1002/wcc.465.
Fyfe, J. C., and Coauthors including B. D. Santer, 2017: Large near-term projected snowpack loss over the western United States. Nature Communications, 8, 14996, doi: 10.1038/ncomms14996.
Hassell, D., J. Gregory, J. Blower, B. N. Lawrence, and K. E. Taylor, 2017: A data model of the Climate and Forecast metadata conventions (CF-1.6) with a software implementation (cf-python v2.1). Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4619–4646, doi: 10.5194/gmd-10-4619-2017.
Marvel, K., M. Biasutti, C. Bonfils, K. E. Taylor, and Y. Kushnir, 2017: Observed and projected changes to the precipitation annual cycle. Journal of Climate, 30, 4983–4995, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0572.1.
Mehran, A., A. AghaKouchak, N. Nakhjiri, M. J. Stewardson, M. C. Peel, T. J. Phillips, Y. Wada, and J. K. Ravalico, 2017: Compounding impacts of human-induced water stress and climate change on water availability. Nature Sci. Rep., 7, 6282, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-06765-0.
Solomon, S., D. Ivy, M. Gupta, J. Bandoro, B. D. Santer, Q. Fu, P. Lin, R. R. Garcia, D. Kinnison, and M. Mills, 2017: Mirrored changes in Antarctic ozone and stratospheric temperature in late 20th versus early 21st centuries. J. Geophys. Res., 122, 8940–8950, doi: 10.1002/2017JD026719.
Stouffer, R. J., and Coauthors including K. E. Taylor, 2017: CMIP5 scientific gaps and recommendations for CMIP6. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 95–105, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00013.1.
Tsushima, Y., F. Brient, S. A. Klein, D. Konsta, C. Nam, X. Qu, K. D. Williams, S. C. Sherwood, K. Suzuki, and M. D. Zelinka, 2017: The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Diagnostic Codes Catalogue – metrics, diagnostics and methodologies to evaluate, understand and improve the representation of clouds and cloud feedbacks in climate models. Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4285–4305, doi: 10/4285/2017/gmd-10-4285-2017.
Webb, M. J., and Coauthors including S. A. Klein, 2017: The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 359–384, doi: 10.5194/gmd-10-359-2017.

2016

Covey, Curt, Peter J. Gleckler, Charles Doutriaux, Dean N. Williams, Aiguo Dai, John Fasullo, Kevin Trenberth and Alexis Berg, 2016: Metrics for the diurnal cycle of precipitation: Toward routine benchmarks for climate models. Journal of Climate, 29 (12), 4461-4471. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0664.1
Byrne, Deidre, Carlos Garcia-Soto, Gordon Hamilton, Eric Leuliette, Lisan Yu, Edmo Campos, Paul J. Durack, Guiseppe M. R. Manzella, Kazuaki Tadokoro, Raymond W. Schmitt, Phillip Arkin, Harry Bryden, Leonard Nurse, John Milliman, Lorna Inniss and Patricio Bernal, 2016: The Ocean's Role in the Hydrological Cycle (Chapter 4). In: The First Global Integrated Marine Assessment. World Ocean Assessment I, 2016: United Nations. Accessible online
Durack, Paul J., Tong Lee, Nadya T. Vinogradova and Detlef Stammer, 2016: Keeping the lights on for global ocean salinity observation (Commentary). Nature Climate Change, 6 (3), 228-231, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2946
Gleckler, P. J., C. Doutriaux, P. J. Durack, K. E. Taylor, Y. Zhang, and D. N. Williams, E. Mason, and J. Servonnat, 2016: A more powerful reality test for climate models, Eos, 97, doi: 10.1029/2016EO051663. Published on 3 May 2016
Gleckler, Peter J., Paul J. Durack, Ronald J. Stouffer, Gregory C. Johnson and Chris E. Forest, 2016: Industrial-era global ocean heat uptake doubles in recent decades, Nature Climate Change, 6 (4), 394-398, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2915
Lago, Veronique, Susan E. Wijffels, Paul J. Durack, John A. Church, Nathaniel, L. Bindoff and Simon J. Marsland, 2016: Simulating the role of surface forcing on observed multidecadal upper ocean salinity changes, Journal of Climate, 29 (15), 5575-5588 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0519.1
Annamalai, H. and K. R. Sperber, 2016: South Asian summer monsoon variability in a changing climate. Chapter 3 (pp. 25-46) in The Monsoons and Climate Change. Eds. L. M. V. Carvalho and C. Jones, Springer International Publishing, Switzerland, 253pp.
Santer, B.D., S. Solomon, G. Pallotta, C. Mears, S. Po-Chedley, Q. Fu, F.J. Wentz, C.-Z. Zou, J.F. Painter, I. Cvijanovic, and C. Bonfils, 2016: Comparing tropospheric warming in climate models and satellite data. Nat. Clim. Change (submitted).
Griffies, S. M., G. Danabasoglu, P. J. Durack, A. J. Adcroft, V. Balaji, C. Boening, E. P. Chassignet, E. Curchitser, J. Deshayes, H. Drange, B. Fox-Kemper, P. J. Gleckler, J. M. Gregory, H. Haak, R. W. Hallberg, H. T. Hewitt, D. M. Holland, T. Ilyina, J. H. Junglaus, Y. Komuro, J. P. Krasting, W. G. Large, S. J. Marsland, S. Masina, T. J. McDougall, J. C. Orr, A. Pirani, F. Qiao, R. J. Stouffer, K. E. Taylor, H. Tsujino, P. Uotila, M. Valdivieso, M. Winton and S. G. Yeager, (2016): Experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP). Geoscientific Model Development, 9, 3231-3296. doi: 10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016
Meehl, G.A., A. Hu, B.D. Santer, and S.-P. Xie, 2016: Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation contributions to multi-decadal variability of 20^th century globally averaged surface temperatures
Fyfe, J.C., G.A. Meehl, M.H. England, M.E. Mann, B.D. Santer, G.M. Flato, E. Hawkins, N.P. Gillett, S.-P. Xie, Y. Kosaka, and N.C. Swart, 2016: Making sense of the early 2000s global warming slowdown, Nature Climate Change, 6, 224-228. doi:10.1038/nclimate2938
Ivanova, D. P., P. J. Gleckler, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Durack, K. D. Marvel, 2016: Moving beyond the total sea ice extent in gauging model biases, Journal of Climate, 29, 8965-8987. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0026.1
Clark, P.U., J.D. Shakun, S.A. Marcott, A.C. Mix, M. Eby, S. Kulp, A. Levermann, G.A. Milne, P.L. Pfister, B.D. Santer, D.P. Schrag, S. Solomon, T.F. Stocker, B.H. Strauss, A.J. Weaver, R. Winkelmann, D. Archer, E. Bard, A. Goldner, K. Lambeck, R.T. Pierrehumbert, and G.-K. Plattner, 2016: Consequences of 21^st century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change, Nature Climate Change, 6, 360-369
Cvijanovic, I., C. Bonfils, D.D. Lucas, B.D. Santer, J.C.H. Chiang, and S. Zimmerman, 2016: Seasonally ice-free Arctic favors dry California
Boer, G. J., D. M . Smith, C. Cassou, F. Doblas-Reyes, G. Danabasoglu, B. Kirtman, Y. Kushnir, M. Kimoto, G. A. Meehl, R. Msadek, W. A. Mueller, K. E. Taylor, and F. Zwiers, 2016: The decadal climate prediction project
Eyring, V., P. J. Gleckler, C. Heinze, R. J. Stouffer, K. E. Taylor, V. Balaji, E. Guilyardi, S. Joussaume, S. Kindermann, B. N. Lawrence, G. A. Meehl, M. Righi, and D. N. Williams, 2016: Towards improved and more routine Earth system model evaluation in CMIP6
Santer, B.D., S. Solomon, D.A. Ridley, J.C. Fyfe, F. Beltran, C. Bonfils, J.F. Painter, and M.D. Zelinka, 2016: Volcanic effects on climate. Nature Climate Change, 6, 3-4. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2859
Sperber, K. R., E. Cuisinier, A. Kitoh, C. R. Mechoso, A. F. Moise, W. Moufouma-Okia, K. Schiro, and A. G. Turner, 2014: Modelling Monsoons. In The Global Monsoon: Research and Forecast III. World Scientific Publishing Company. (in press)

2015

Caldwell, P. M., M. D. Zelinka, K. E. Taylor, and K. Marvel, 2015: Quantifying the sources of inter-model spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity. J. Climate, 29, 513-524, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0352.1.
Durack, Paul J., 2015: Ocean Salinity and the Global Water Cycle. Oceanography, 28 (1), 20-31. doi: 10.5670/oceanog.2015.03
Hegerl, Gabriele C., Emily Black, Richard P. Allan, William J. Ingram, Debbie Polson, Kevin E. Trenberth, Robin S. Chadwick, Phillip A. Arkin, Beena Balan Sarojini, Andreas Becker, Aiguo Dai, Paul J. Durack and co-authors, 2015: Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96 (7), pp 1097-1115. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00212.1
Ferraro, R., D. E. Waliser, P. J. Gleckler, K. E. Taylor, and V. Eyring, 2015: Evolving obs4MIPs to Support the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96 (8), ES131-ES133, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00216.1
Cheng, L., A. AghaKouchak, and T. J. Phillips, 2015: Non-stationary return levels of CMIP5 multi-model temperature extremes. Climate Dynamics, 44 (11), 2947-2963, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2625-y
Benjamin D. Santer, Susan Solomon, Celine Bonfils, Mark D. Zelinka, Jeffrey F. Painter, Francisco Beltran, John C. Fyfe, Gardar Johannesson, Carl Mears, David A. Ridley, Jean-Paul Vernier, Frank J. Wentz, 2015: Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity, AGU Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (2) 500-509 doi:10.1002/2014GL062366
Durack, Paul J., 2015: Ocean Salinity and the Global Water Cycle. Oceanography, 28 (1), 20-31, doi: 10.5670/oceanog.2015.03
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E., 2015: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 10539-10583, doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-10539-2015.
Bonfils, C., B. D. Santer, T. J. Phillips, K. Marvel, R. Leung, C. Doutriaux, A. Copotondi, 2015: Relative contributions of mean-state shifts and ENSO-driven variability to precipitation changes in a warming climate J. Clim., 28:9997-10013, 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0341.1.
Rouser, F., P. Gleckler and J. Moretzke, 2015: Re-thinking the use of the multi-model ensemble. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 96 (6), 911-919. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00181.1
Nasrollahi, N., A. AghaKouchak, L. Cheng, L. Damberg, T.J. Phillips, C. Miao, K. Hsu, and S. Sarooshian, 2014: How well do CMIP5 simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of meteorological droughts?, Water Resources Res. 51, DOI: 10.1002/2014WR016318
Phillips, T.J., and C.J.W. Bonfils, 2015: Koeppen bioclimatic evaluation of CMIP historical climate simulations. Env. Res. Lett., 10, 064005, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064005
Marvel, K., M. D. Zelinka, S. A. Klein, C. Bonfils, P. Caldwell, C. Doutriaux, B. D. Santer, and K. E. Taylor, 2014: Detection of external influences on observed cloud trends.Nature Geoscience, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00734.1

2014

Durack, Paul J., Peter J. Gleckler, Felix W. Landerer and Karl E. Taylor, 2014: Quantifying Underestimates of Long-term Upper-Ocean Warming. Nature Climate Change, 4 (11), 999-1005, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2389
Durack, Paul J., Susan E. Wijffels and Peter J. Gleckler, 2014: Long-term Sea-level Change Revisited: The Role of Salinity. Environmental Research Letters, 9 (11), 114017, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114017
Griffies, Stephen M., Jianjun Yin, Paul J. Durack and co-authors, 2014: An Assessment of global and regional sea level for years 1993-2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations, Ocean Modelling, 78, 35-89, doi: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.03.004
Kim, D., P. Xaiver, E. Maloney, M. Wheeler, D. Waliser, K. R. Sperber, H. Hendon, C. Zhang, R. Neale, Y.-T., Hwang, and H. Liu, 2014: Process-oriented MJO simulation diagnostic: moisture sensitivity of simulated convection. J. Clim., 27, 5379-5395. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00497.1
Sperber, K. R., and H. Annamalai, 2014: The use of fractional accumulated precipitation for the evaluation of the annual cycle of monsoons. Clim. Dynam. 43, 3219-3244. doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2099-3.
Wehner, M. F., K. Reed, F. Li, Prabhat, J. Bacmeister, C.-T., Chen, C. Paciorek, P. J. Gleckler, K. R. Sperber, W. D. Collins, A. Gettleman, and C. Jablonowski, 2014: The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation quality in the Community Atmospheric Model, CAM5.1. J. Adv. Modeling Earth Sys. doi: 10.1002/2013MS000276.
Sperber, K. R., E. Cuisinier, A. Kitoh, C. R. Mechoso, A. F. Moise, W. Moufouma-Okia, K. Schiro, and A. G. Turner, 2014: Modelling Monsoons. In â€œThe Global Monsoon: Research and Forecast III.â€� World Scientific Publishing Company. (in press)
Mehran, A., A. AghaKouchak, and T.J. Phillips, 2014: Evaluation of CMIP5 continental precipitation simulations relative to GPCP satellite observations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 1695â€“1707, doi: 10.1002/2013JD021152
Landerer, F., P. Gleckler, and T. Lee, 2013: Evaluation of CMIP5 dynamic sea surface height multi- model simulations against satellite observations, Clim. Dynamics, 43,pp 1271-1283. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1939-x
Bandoro, J., S. Solomon, D.W.J. Thompson, A. Donohoe, and B.D. Santer, 2014: Influence of the Antarctic ozone hole on seasonal changes in climate in the Southern Hemisphere. Journal of Climate, 27 (16), 6245-6264. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00698.1
Zelinka, M.D., T. Andrews, P.M. Forster, and K.E. Taylor, 2014: Quantifying components of aerosol- cloud-radiation interactions in climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 7599-7615. DOI: 10.1002/2014JD021710
Teixeira, J., D. Waliser, R. Ferraro, P. Gleckler, T. Lee and G. Potter, 2014: Satellite Observations for CMIP5: The Genesis of Obs4MIPs. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1329-1334. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00204.1
Liu, Z., A. Mehran, T.J. Phillips, and A. AghaKouchak, 2014: Seasonal and regional biases in CMIP5 precipitation simulations. Clim. Res., DOI: 10.3354/cr01221
Caldwell, P. M., C. S. Bretherton, M. D. Zelinka, S. A. Klein, B. D. Santer, and B. M. Sanderson, 2014: Statistical significance of climate sensitivity predictors obtained by data mining, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1803-1808. DOI::10.1002/2014GL059205
Santer, B.D., C. Bonfils, J.F. Painter, M. Zelinka, C. Mears, S. Solomon, G.A. Schmidt, J.C. Fyfe, J.N.S. Cole, L. Nazaenko, K.E. Taylor, and F.J. Wentz, 2014: Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature. Nature Geoscience, 7, 185-189. DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2098

2013

Covey, C., R. M. Haberle, C. P. McKay and D. V. Titov, 2013: The greenhouse effect and climate feedbacks. In Comparative Climatology of the Terrestrial Planets. Mackwell, S., M. Bullock, and J. Harder (Eds.), University of Arizona Press, in press.
Durack, Paul J., Susan E. Wijffels and Tim P. Boyer, 2013: Long-term salinity changes and implications for the global water cycle (Chapter 28). In: Ocean Circulation and Climate (Second Edition), A 21st Century Perspective. Siedler, Gerold, Stephen M. Griffies, John Gould and John A. Church (Eds.). Volume 103, pp 727-757, International Geophysics, Academic Press, Elsevier, Oxford OX5 1GB, UK, doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-391851-2.00028-3
Guilyardi, Eric, V. Balaji, B. Lawrence, S. Callaghan, C. DeLuca, S. Denvil, M. Lautenschlager, M. Morgan, S. Murphy, K. E. Taylor, and the METAFOR team, 2013: Documenting climate models and their simulations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 623-627, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00035.1
Hao, Z., A. AghaKouchak, and T.J. Phillips, 2013: Changes in concurrent precipitation and temperature extremes. Env. Res. Letters, 8, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034014
Marvel, K., D. Ivanova, and K. E. Taylor, 2013: Scale space methods for climate model analysis. J. Geophys. Res., 188, 5082-5097, doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50433
Santer, B.D., J. Painter, C. Bonfils, C. Mears, S. Solomon, T.M.L. Wigley, P.J. Gleckler, G.A. Schmidt, C. Doutriaux, N.P. Gillett, K.E. Taylor, P.W. Thorne, and F.J. Wentz, 2013: Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere. Proc. Nat. Acad. of Sci., released online, doi: 10.1073/pnas1305332110
Santer, B. D., J. F. Painter, C. A. Mears, C. Doutriaux, P. Caldwell, J. M. Arblaster, P. J. Cameron-Smith, N. P. Gillett, P. J. Gleckler, J. Lanzante, J. Perlwitz, S. Solomon, P. A. Stott, K. E. Taylor, L. Terray, P. W. Thorne, M. F. Wehner, F. J. Wentz, T. M. L. Wigley, L. J. Wilcox, and C.-Z. Zou, 2013: Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110, 26-33, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1210514109.
Sperber, K. R., H. Annamalai, I.-S. Kang, A. Kitoh, A. Moise, A. Turner, B. Wang, and T. Zhou, 2013: The Asian summer monsoon: An intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century. Clim. Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1607-6
Wigley, T.M.L., and B. D. Santer, 2013: A probabilistic quantification of the anthropogenic component of twentieth century warming. Clim. Dynamics, 40, 1087-1102, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1585-8
Zelinka, M.D., S.A. Klein, K. E. Taylor, T. Andrews, M.J. Webb, J.M. Gregory, and P.M. Forster, 2013. Contributions of different cloud types to feedbacks and rapid adjustments in CMIP5. J. Climate, 26 (14), 5007-5027, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00555.1
Griffies, S. M., J. Yin, S. C. Bates, E. Behrens, M. Bentsen, D. Bi, A. Biastoch, C. BÃ¶ning, A. Bozec, C. Cassou, E. Chassignet, G. Danabasoglu, S. Danilov, C. Domingues, H. Drange, P. J. Durack and co-authors, 2013: An assessment of global and regional sea level in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations: a synopsis. Exchanges: newsletter of the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme (CLIVAR), No. 62, Vol. 18 (2), 11-15. Accessible online
Covey, C., A. Dai, R. S. Lindzen, and D. R. Marsh, 2014: Atmospheric tides in the latest generation of climate models. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 1905-1913. DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-0358.1
Meehl, G.A., R. Moss, K.E. Taylor, V. Eyring, R.J. Stouffer, S. Bony, and B. Stevens, 2014: Climate model intercomparisons: Preparing for the next phase, EOS Trans. AGU, 95, doi: 10.1002/2014EO090001
Flato, G., J. Marotzke, B. Abiodun, P. Braconnot, S. C. Chou, W. Collins, P. Cox, F. Driouech, S. Emori, V. Eyring, C. Forest, P. Gleckler, E. Guilyardi, C. Jakob, V. Kattsov, C. Reason and M. Rummukainen, 2013: Evaluation of Climate Models. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T. F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/

2012

Andrews, T., J. M. Gregory, M. J. Webb, and K. E. Taylor, 2012: Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in a new generation of climate models. Geophys. Res. Letts. 39, L09712, doi:10.1029/2012GL051607
Bonfils, C. W. J., T. J. Phillips, D. M. Lawrence, P. Cameron-Smith**,** W. J. Riley, and Z. M. Subin, 2012: On the influence of shrub height and expansion on northern high latitude climate. Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 015503, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015503.
Durack, P. J., S. E. Wijffels, and R. J. Matear, 2012: Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification during 1950-2000. Science, 336 (6080), 455-458, doi:10.1126/science.1212222.
Gleckler, P. J., B. D Santer, C. Domingues, D. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, J. Church, K. E. Taylor, K. AchutaRao, T. Boyer, M. Ishii, and P. Caldwell**,** 2012: Human-induced global ocean warming on multidecadal timescales. Nature Climate Change, 2, 524-529, doi:10.1038/nclimate1553.
Ivanova, D. P., J. L. McClean, and E. C. Hunke, 2012: Interaction of ocean temperature advection, surface heat fluxes and sea ice in the marginal ice zone during the North Atlantic Oscillation in the 1990s: A modeling study. J. Geophys. Res., 117, C02031, doi:10.1029/2011JC007532
Pierce, D.W., P. J. Gleckler, T. P. Barnett, B. D. Santer, and P. J. Durack, 2012: The fingerprint of human-induced changes in the oceanâ€™s salinity and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Letters, 39, L21704, doi: 10.1029/2012GL053389
Sen Gupta, A., L. C. Muir, J. N. Brown, S. J. Phipps, P. J. Durack, D. Monselesan, and S.E. Wijffels , 2012: Climate drift in the CMIP3 models. J. Clim., 25, 4621-4640, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00312.1
Sperber, K. R. and D. Kim, 2012: Simplified metrics for the identification of the Madden-Julian oscillation in models. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 13, 187-193, doi: 10.1002/asi.378
Subin, Z., L. Murphy, F. Li, C. Bonfils, and W. Riley, 2012: Boreal lakes moderate seasonal and diurnal temperature variation and perturb atmospheric circulation. Tellus-A, 64, 15635, doi:10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.15639
Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
Zhang, Y., S. Xie, C. Covey, D. D. Lucas, P. Gleckler, S. Klein, J. Tannahill, C. Doutriaux, and R. Klein, 2012: Regional assessment of the parameter-dependent performance of CAM4 in simulating tropical clouds. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L14806, doi: 10.1029/2012GL052184/abstract
Pierce, D.W., P.J. Gleckler, T.P. Barnett, B.D. Santer, and P. Durack, 2012: The fingerprint of human-induced changes in the oceanâ€™s salinity and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Letters, 39, L21704, doi: 10.1029/2012GL053389.

2011

Covey, C., A. Dai, R. S. Lindzen, and D. Marsh, 2011: The surface-pressure signature of atmospheric tides in modern climate models. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 495-514 doi: 10.1175/2010JAS3560.1
Durack, P. J., S. E. Wijffels, and N. L. Bindoff , 2011: [Global Oceans] Ocean salinity: A water cycle diagnostic? [In "State of the Climate in 2010"]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92 (6), S91-93, doi:10.1175/1520-0477-92.6.S1
Gleckler, P., R. Ferraro, and D. Waliser, 2011: Improving use of satellite data in evaluating climate models. EOS, 92, 20. DOI: 10.1029/2011EO200005
McClean, J. L., D. C. Bader, F. O. Bryan, M. E. Maltrud, J. M. Dennis, A. A. Mirin, P. W. Jones, Y. Y. Kim, D. P. Ivanova, M. Vertenstein, J. S. Boyle, R. L. Jacob, N. Norton, A. Craig, and P. H. Worley, 2011: A prototype two-decade fully-coupled fine-resolution CCSM simulation. Ocean Modelling, 39, 10-30, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2011.02.011.
Santer, B. D., C. A. Mears, C. Doutriaux, P. M. Caldwell**, P. J. Gleckler,** T. M .L. Wigley, S. Solomon, N. Gillett, D. P. Ivanova, T. R. Karl, J. R. Lanzante, G. A. Meehl, P. A. Stott, K. E. Taylor, P. Thorne, M. F. Wehner, and F. J. Wentz, 2011: Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes: The importance of timescale. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D22105, doi:10.1029/2011JD016263.
Santer, B. D., T. M. L. Wigley, and K. E. Taylor, 2011: The reproducibility of observational estimates of surface and atmospheric temperature change. Science, 334, 1232-1233. DOI: 10.1126/science.1216273
Sperber, K. R., J. M. Slingo, and P. M. Inness, 2011: Modelling the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Chapter 11 in â€œIntraseasonal Variability of the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System,â€� 2nd Edition, W.-K.-M. Lau and D. E. Waliser (editors), Praxis Publishing, Chichester, UK.
Ahrens, J., B. Henderickson, G. Long, S. Miller, R. Ross, D. Williams, 2011: Data-intensive science in the U.S. DOE: Case studies and future challenges. Computing in Science and Engineering, 13, 14-, doi: 24.10.1109/MCSE.2011.77
Carman, J. C. and J. L. McClean, 2011: Investigation of IPCC AR4 coupled climate model North Atlantic mode water formation. Ocean Modelling, 40, 14-34, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2011.07.001
Ferguson, I. M., P. B. Duffy, T. J. Phillips, X. Liang, J. A. Dracup, S. Schubert, and P. Pegion, 2011: Non-stationarity of the signal and noise characteristics of seasonal precipitation anomalies. Climate Dyn., 36, 739-752. DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0850-y
Hendon, H., K. Sperber, D. Waliser, and M. Wheeler, 2011: Workshop on modelling monsoon intraseasonal variability: from theory to operational forecasting. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, ES32-ES35, doi: 10.1175/2011BAMS3164.1.
Jiang, X., D. E. Waliser, D. Kim, M. Zhao, K. R. Sperber, W. F. Stern, S. D. Schubert, G. J. Zhang, W. Wang, M. Khairoutdinov, R. B. Neale, and M-I. Lee, 2011: Simulation of the intraseasonal variability over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ in climate models. Clim. Dynam, doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1098-x.
Kravitz, B., A. Robock, O. Boucher, H. Schmidt, K. E. Taylor, G. Stenchikov, and M. Schulz, 2011: The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). Atmos. Sci. Letts., 12, 162-167, doi: 10.1002/asl.316.
Parish, H. F., G. Schubert, C. Covey, R. L. Walterscheid, A. Grossman, and S. Lebonnois, 2011: Decadal variations in a Venus general circulation model. Icarus, 212, 42-65. doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2010.11.015
Pierce D. W., T. P. Barnett and P. J. Gleckler, 2011: Ocean circulations, heat budgets, and future commitment to climate change. Annu. Rev. Environ. Res., 36, 27-43, doi: 10.1146/annurev-environ-022610-112928.
Thorne, P. W., P. Brohan, H. A. Titchner, M. P. McCarthy, S. C. Sherwood, T. C. Peterson, L. Haimberger, D. E. Parker, S. F. B. Tett, B. D. Santer, D. R. Fereday, and J. J. Kennedy, 2011: A quantification of the uncertainties in historical tropical tropospheric temperature trends from radiosondes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, D12116, doi: 10.1029/2010JD015487.
Wehner, M. F., D .R. Easterling, J .H. Lawrimore, R. R. Heim, R. S. Vose, and B. D. Santer, 2011: Projections of future drought in the continental United States and Mexico. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12, 1359-1377. doi: 10.1175/2011JHM1351.1
Bonfils, C. and B. D. Santer, 2011: Investigating the possibility of a human component in various Pacific Decadal Oscillation indices. Clim. Dyn. 37, 1457-1468. DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0920-1
Chu, W., X. Gao, T. J. Phillips, and S. Sorooshian, 2011: Consistency of spatial patterns of the daily precipitation field in the western United States and its application to precipitation disaggregation. Geophys. Res. Letters, 38, GL04403, doi:10.1029/2010GL046473
Turner, A., K. Sperber, J. Slingo, G. Meehl, C. R. Mechoso, M. Kimoto, and A. Giannini, 2010: Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and predicting current and future behaviour. Chapter 25 in The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast, C.-P. Chang, Y. Ding, N.-C. Lau, R. H. Johnson, B. Wang, and T. Yasunari (editors), World Scientific Publication Company, Singapore.

2010

Duan, Q., and T. J. Phillips, 2010: Bayesian estimation of local signal and noise in multi-model simulations of climate change. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D18123, doi:10.1029/2009JD013654.
Duffy, P. Santer, B.D., and Wigley, T.M.L., 2010: Interpretations of climate change data. Physics Today, 62 (11), 10-11. doi: 10.1063/1.3265248
Durack, Paul J., and Susan E. Wijffels, 2010: Fifty-Year Trends in Global Ocean Salinities and Their Relationship to Broad-Scale Warming, Journal of Climate, 23 (16), 4342-4362, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3377.1
Gottschalck, J., M. Wheeler, K. Weickmann, F. Vitart, N. Savage, H. Lin, H. Hendon, D. Waliser, K. Sperber, M. Nakagawa, C. Prestrelo, M. Flatau, and W. Higgins, 2010: A framework for assessing operational Madden - Julian oscillation forecasts: A CLIVAR MJO working group project. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1247-1258. doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS2816.1
Knutti, R., G. Abramowitz, M. Collins, V. Eyring, P .J. Gleckler, B. Hewitson, and L. Mearns, 2010: Good practice guidance paper on assessing and combining multi-model climate projections. In: Meeting Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Expert Meeting on Assessing and Combining Multi-Model Climate Projections [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Santer, B.D., and S. Solomon, 2010: Stephen H. Schneider (1945-2010). EOS , 91 (41), 372. doi:10.1029/2010EO410005
Santer, B.D., and T.M.L. Wigley, 2010: Detection and attribution. In: Climate Change Science and Policy, edited by Schneider, S.H., A. Rosencranz, M.D. Mastrandrea, and K. Kuntz-Duriseti,. Island Press, Washington D.C., pp. 28-43.

2009

Caldwell, P.M., H.-N. S. Chin, D.C. Bader, and G. Bala, 2009: Evaluation of a WRF Dynamical Downscaling Simulation over California. Clim. Ch. 95, 499-521, doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9583-5.
Das, T., H.G. Hidalgo, M.D. Dettinger, D.R. Cayan, D.W. Pierce, C. Bonfils, T.P. Barnett, G. Bala, and A. Mirin, 2009: Structure and Detectability of Trends inHydrological Measures over the western United States. J. Hydrometeor,10, 871-892, doi: 10.1175/2009JHM1095.1
Doutriaux C., R. Drach, R. McCoy, V. Mlaker, and D. Williams, 2009: Climate Data Analysis Tools: Facilitating scientific investigations, EOS Trans., 90, doi: 10.1029/2009EO350002.
Duffy, P.B. , B.D. Santer, and T.M.L. Wigley, 2009: Solar variability does not explain late-20th century warming. Physics Today, 49, 48-49.
Hidalgo, H., T. Das, M.D. Dettinger, D.R. Cayan, D.W. Pierce, T.P. Barnett, G. Bala, A. Mirin , A.W. Wood, C. Bonfils, B.D. Santer, and T. Nozawa, 2009: Detection and attribution of streamflow timing changes to climate change in the western United States. J. Clim., 22, 3838-3855. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2470.1
Hurrell, J., G.A. Meehl, D. Bader, T. Delworth, B. Kirtman, and B. Wielicki, 2009: Climate System Prediction. _Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc._90,1819-1832, doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2752.1
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press. (B. D. Santer, Lead Author of â€œGlobal Climate Changeâ€� chapter).
Kim, D., K.R. Sperber, W.S. Stern, D. Waliser, I.-S. Kang, E. Maloney, S. Schubert, W. Wang, K. Weickmann, J. Benedict, M. Khairoutdinov, M.-I. Lee, R. Neale, M. Suarez, K. Thayer-Calder, and G. Zhang, 2009: Application of MJO simulation diagnostics to climate models. J. Clim. 22, 6413-6436. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3063.1
Meehl, G.A., A. Hu, and B.D. Santer, 2009: The mid-1970s climate shift in the Pacific and the relative roles of forced versus inherent decadal variability. J. Clim., 22, 780- 792, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2552.1
Pierce, D.W., T.P. Barnett, B.D. Santer, and P.J. Gleckler, 2009: Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,106, 8441-8446. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0900094106
Randerson, J.T., F.M. Hoffman, P.E. Thornton, N.M. Mahowald, K. Lindsay, Y.-H. Lee, C.D. Nevison, S.C. Doney, G. Bonan, R. Stockli, C. Covey, S.W. Running, and I.Y. Fung, 2009: Systematic assessment of terrestrial biogeochemistry in coupled climate-carbon models. Glob. Ch. Biol. 15, 2462-2484, DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01912.x
Santer, B.D., K.E. Taylor, P.J. Gleckler, C. Bonfils, T.P. Barnett, D.W. Pierce, T.M.L. Wigley, C. Mears, F.J. Wentz, W. Bruggemann, N.P. Gillett, S.A. Klein, S. Solomon, P.A. Stott, and M.F. Wehner, 2009: Incorporating model quality information in climate change detection and attribution studies. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0901736106 .
Santer, B.D., and T.M.L. Wigley, 2009: Progress in detection and attribution research, in Climate Change Science and Policy.S.H. Schneider, A. Rosencranz, and M. Mastrandrea, Eds.
Turner, A., K. Sperber, J. Slingo, G. Meehl, C.R. Mechoso, M. Kimoto, and A. Giannini, 2009: Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and predicting current and future behaviour. In: Proceedings of the Fourth International Workshop on Monsoons, Beijing China, Oct. 2008
Waliser, D., K. Sperber, H. Hendon, D. Kim, E. Maloney, M. Wheeler, K. Weickmann, C. Zhang, L. Donner, J. Gottschalck, W. Higgins, I.-S. Kang, D. Legler, M. Moncrieff, S. Schubert, W. Stern, F. Vitart, B. Wang, W. Wang, and S. Woolnough, 2009: CLIVAR Madden-Julian Oscillation Working Group: MJO simulation diagnostics. J. Clim. 22, 3006-3030, doi:10.1175/2008CLI2231.1
Williams, D.N. , R. Ananthakrishnan, D.E. Bernholdt, S. Bharathi, D. Brown, M. Chen, A.L. Chervenak, L. Cinquini, R. Drach, I.T. Foster, P. Fox, D. Fraser, J. Garcia, S. Hankin, P. Jones, D.E. Middleton, J. Schwidder, R. Schweitzer, R. Schuler, A. Shoshani, F. Siebenlist, A. Sim, W.G. Strand, M. Su, and N. Wilhelmi, 2009: The Earth System Grid: Enabling Access to Multi-Model Climate Simulation Data. Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc. 90, p. 195. DOI: 10.1175/2008BAMS2459.1
Lobell, D., G. Bala, A. Mirin, T.J. Phillips, R. Maxwell, D. Rotman, 2009: Regional differences in the influence of irrigation on climate. J. Climate, 22, 2248-2255. DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2703.1

2008

Bader, D., C. Covey, W. Gutowski, I. Held, K. Kunkel, R. Miller, R. Tokmakian, and M. Zhang, 2008: Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations, A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.1). Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Washington, D.C., 124 pp. ( http://library.globalchange.gov/sap-3-1-climate-models-an-assessment-of-strengths-and-limitations).
Bala, G., P. B. Duffy, and K. E. Taylor, 2008: Impact of geoengineering schemes on the global hydrological cycle. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 105, 7664-7666, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0711648105.
Bala, G., R. Rood, D. Bader, A.Mirin, D. Ivanova, and C. Drui, 2008: Simulated climate near steep topography: Sensitivity to dynamical methods for atmospheric transport. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L14807, doi:10.1029/2008GL033204.
Bala, G., R. Rood, A. Mirin, J. McClean, K. Achutarao, **D. Bader,**P. Gleckler, R. Neale, and P. Rasch, 2008: Evaluation of a high-resolution CCSM3 simulation with a finite volume dynamical core for the atmosphere. J. Clim., 21, 1467-1486, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI2060.1.
Barnett, T.P., D. Pierce, H. Hidalgo, C. Bonfils, B.D. Santer, T. Das, G. Bala, A. Wood. T. Nozawa, A. Mirin, D. Cayan, and M. Dettinger, 2008: Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States. Science, 319, 1080â€“1083, doi: 10.1126/science.1152538.
Bonfils, C., P.B. Duffy, B.D. Santer, T.M.L. Wigley, D.B. Lobell, T.J. Phillips, and C. Doutriaux, 2008: Identification of external influences on temperatures in California. Clim. Ch., 87, 43-55, doi: 10.1007/s10584-007-9374-9.
Bonfils, C., B.D. Santer, D.W. Pierce, H.G. Hidalgo, G. Bala, T. Das, T.P. Barnett, M. Dettinger, D.R. Cayan, C. Doutriaux, A.W. Wood, A. Mirin, and T. Nozawa, 2008: Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous western United States. J. Clim., 21, 6404-6424, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2397.1.
Byrne, D.A., and J. McClean, 2008: Sea level anomaly signals in the Agulhas Current region. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35 L13701, doi:10.1029/2008GL034584
Domingues, C., J.A. Church, N.J. White, P.J. Gleckler, S.E. Wijffels, P.M. Barker, and J.R. Dunn, 2008: Rapid upper-ocean warming helps explain multi-decadal sea-level rise. _Natur_e, 453, 1090 - 1093, doi: 10.1038/nature07080
Gillett, N.P., P.A. Stott, and B.D. Santer, 2008: Attribution of cyclogenesis region sea surface temperature change to anthropogenic influence. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L09707, doi:10.1029/2008GL033670.
Gleckler, P.J., K.E. Taylor, and C. Doutriaux, 2008: Performance metrics for climate models. J. Geophys. Res.,113, D06104, doi:10.1029/2007JD008972.
Lobell, D., and C. Bonfils, 2008: The effect of irrigation on regional temperatures: a spatial and temporal analysis of trends in California, 1934-2002. J. Clim., 21, 2063 - 2071, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1755.1.
Lobell, D., C. Bonfils, and J.-M. Faures, 2008: The role of irrigation expansion in past and future temperature trends. Earth Interactions, 12, 1 - 11.
Lobell, D., C. Bonfils, L. Kueppers, and M. Snyder, 2008: Irrigation cooling effect on temperature and heat index extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L09705, doi:10.1029/2008GL034145.
McClean, J., S. Jayne, M. Maltrud, and D. Ivanova, 2008: The Fidelity of Ocean Models with Explicit Eddies. In: Eddy-Resolving Ocean Modelling, M. Hecht and H. Hasumi, Eds., AGU Geophysical Monograph Series, Vol. 170, pp.149-163.
Pierce, D.W., T.P. Barnett, H.G. Hidalgo, T. Das, C. Bonfils, B.D. Santer, G. Bala, M.D. Dettinger, D.R. Cayan, A. Mirin, A.W. Wood, and T. Nozawa, 2008: Attribution of declining western U.S. snowpack to human effects. J. Clim., 21, 6425-6444, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2405.1
Pincus, R., C.P. Batstone, R.J. Patrick Hofmann, K.E. Taylor, and P.J. Gleckler, 2008: Evaluating the present-day simulation of clouds, precipitation, and radiation in climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 113, doi:10.1029/2007JD009334.
Rauscher, S.A., C. Covey, A. Henderson-Sellers, and F. Giorgi, 2008: Workshop report: Developing know-how on regional climate change research. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 231-234, doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2665.1.
Santer, B.D., P.W. Thorne, L. Haimberger, K.E. Taylor, T.M.L. Wigley, J.R. Lanzante, S. Solomon, M. Free, P.J. Gleckler, P.D. Jones, T.R. Karl, S.A. Klein, C. Mears, D. Nychka, G.A. Schmidt, S.C. Sherwood, and F.J. Wentz, 2008: Consistency of modelled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. Int. J. Clim., 28, 1703-1722, doi: 10.1002/joc.1756.
Sperber, K.R., and H. Annamalai, 2008: Coupled model simulations of boreal summer intraseasonal (30-50 day) variability, Part 1: Systematic Errors and caution on use of metrics. Clim. Dyn., 31, 345-372, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0367-9.
Sperber, K.R., J.M. Slingo. D.E. Waliser, and P.M. Inness, 2008: Comment on "A Madden-Julian oscillation event simulated by a global cloud resolving model" by Miura et al. Science, 320, 612, doi: 10.1126/science.320.5876.612a
Sperber, K.R., and D.E. Waliser, 2008: New approaches to understanding, simulating, and forecasting the Madden-Julian oscillation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 1917-1920, doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2700.1.

2007

AchutaRao, K., B.D. Santer, M. Ishii, P.J. Gleckler, K.E. Taylor, T.P. Barnett, D.W. Pierce, R.J. Stouffer, and T.M.L. Wigley, 2007: Simulated and observed variability in ocean temperature and heat content. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 104, 10,768-773, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0611375104.
Annamalai, H., K. Hamilton, and K.R. Sperber, 2007: South Asian summer monsoon and its relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 simulations. J. Clim., 20, 1071â€“1092, doi:10.1175/JCLI4035.1.
Bala, G., K. Calderia, M. Wickett, T.J. Phillips, D. Lobell, C. Delire, and A. Mirin, 2007: Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 104, 6550â€“6555, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0608998104
Bonfils, C., P. Duffy, and D. Lobell, 2007: Comment on "Methodology and results of calculating Central California surface temperature trends: evidence of human-induced climate change?" by Christy et al. (2006). J. Clim., 20, 4486-4489, doi:10.1175/JCLI4247.1.
Bonfils, C., and D. Lobell, 2007: Empirical evidence for a recent slowdown in irrigation-induced cooling. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 104, 13,582-587, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0700144104.
Bonfils, C., P. Duffy, B. D. Santer, T. Wigley, D. B. Lobell, T. J. Phillips, C. Doutriaux, 2007: Identification of external influences on temperatures in California. Clim. Ch., 87, 43-55. DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9374-9
Duffy, P., C. Bonfils, P. Gleick, and D. Lobell, 2007: Interpretating recent temperature trends in California. EOS Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 88, 409-410. DOI: 10.1029/2007EO410001
Hollingsworth, J.L., R.E. Young, G. Schubert, C. Covey, and A.S. Grossman, 2007: A simple-physics global circulation model for Venus: Sensitivity assessments of atmospheric superrotation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L05202, doi:10.1029/2006GL028567.
Lobell, D., C. Bonfils, and P. Duffy, 2007: Climate change uncertainty for daily minimum and maximum temperatures: a model intercomparison. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L05715, doi:10.1029/2006GL028726.
Maurer, E., I. Stewart, C. Bonfils, P. Duffy, and D. Cayan, 2007: Detection, attribution, and sensitivity of trends toward earlier streamflow in the Sierra Nevada. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D11118, doi: 10.1029/2006JD008088.
Mears, C.A., B.D. Santer, F.J. Wentz, K.E. Taylor, and M. Wehner, 2007: The relationship between temperature and precipitable water changes over tropical oceans. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L24709, doi:10.1029/2007GL031936
Meehl, G.A., C. Covey, T. Delworth, M. Latif, M. McAvaney, J.F.B. Mitchell, R.J. Stouffer, and K.E. Taylor, 2007: The global coupled model dataset: A new era in climate change research. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1383-1394, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383
Penner, J.E., W.M., A. Kumar, L. Rotstayn, and B.D. Santer, 2008: Effect of black carbon on mid-troposphere and surface temperature trends. In: Human-Induced Climate Change: An Interdisciplinary Assessment. M.E. Schlesinger, H.S. Kheshgi, J. Smith, F. De La Chesnaye, J.M. Reilly, C. Kolstad, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 18-33, doi: 10.1017/CBO9780511619472.004
Phillips, T.J., K. AchutaRao, **D. Bader,**C. Covey, P.J. Gleckler, K. Sperber, and K.E. Taylor, 2007: On the validity of climate models. EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 88, doi:10.1029/2007EO100005.
Rainville, L., S.R. Jayne, J.L. McClean, and M.E. Maltrud, 2007: Formation of Subtropical Mode Water in a High Ã‚ÂResolution POP Simulation of the Kuroshio Extension Region, Ocean Modelling, 17, 338â€“356. doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2007.03.002
Randall, D. A. and co-authors including K. E. Taylor, 2007: Climate models and their evaluation. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, USA.
Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F.J. Wentz, K.E. Taylor, P.J. Gleckler, T.M.L. Wigley, T.P. Barnett, J.S. Boyle, W. Bruggemann, N.P. Gillett, S.A. Klein, G.A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D.W. Pierce, P.A. Stott, W.M. Washington, and M.F. Wehner, 2007: Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 104, 15248-15253, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0702872104.
Taylor, K.E., M. Crucifix, P. Braconnot, C.D. Hewitt, C. Doutriaux, M.J. Webb, A.J. Broccoli, and J.F.B. Mitchell, 2007: Estimating shortwave radiative forcing and response in climate models. J. Clim., 11, 2530-2543.doi: 10.1175/JCLI4143.1
Thorne, P.W., D.E. Parker, B.D. Santer, M.P. McCarthy, D.M.H. Sexton, M.J. Webb, J.M. Murphy, M. Collins, H.A. Titchner, and G.S. Jones, 2007: Tropical vertical temperature trends: A real discrepancy? Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L16702, doi:10.1029/2007GL029875.

2006

AchutaRao, K., and K.R. Sperber, 2006: El Nino/Southern Oscillation simulation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models: Are the current models better? Clim. Dyn., 27, 1-15, doi: 10.1007/s00382-006-0119-7.
AchutaRao, K.M., B.D. Santer, P.J. Gleckler, K.E. Taylor, D.W. Pierce, T.P. Barnett, and T.M.L. Wigley, 2006: Variability of ocean heat uptake: Reconciling observations and models. J. Geophys. Res., 111, C05019, doi:10.1029/2005JC003136.
Bala, G., K. Calderia, A. Mirin, M. Wickett, C. Delire, and T.J. Phillips, 2006: Biogeophysical effects of CO2 -fertilization on global climate. Tellus, 56B, 620-627. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2006.00210.x
Bala, G., K. Calderia, M. Wickett, T.J. Phillips, D. Lobell, C. Delire, and A. Mirin, 2006: Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 104, 6550-6555, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0608998104.
Barnier, B., G. Madec, G. Penduff, T. Molines, J.M. Treguier, A.M. LeSoommer, J. Beckman, A. Biastoch, A. Boning, C. Dengg, J. Gulev, S. Derval, C. Durand, E. Remy, E. Talandier, C. Thetten, M.E. Maltrud, J. McClean, and B. deCuevas, 2006: Impact of partial steps and momentum advection, schemes in a global ocean circulation model at eddy-permitting resolution. Ocean Dyn., 56, 543-567, doi:10.1007/s10236-006-0082-1
Bonfils, C., P. Duffy, and D. Lobell, 2006: Comment on â€œMethodology and results of calculating Central California surface temperature trends: evidence of human-induced climate change?â€� by Christy et al. J. Climate, 20, 4486-4489_._
Boyle, J., 2006: Upper level atmospheric stationary waves in the twentieth century climate of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D14101, doi:10.1029/2005JD006612.
Collins, W.D., M. Blackmon, C. Bitz, G. Bonan, C.S. Bretherton, J.A. Carton, P. Chang, S. Doney, J. J. Hack, J.T. Kiehl, T. Henderson, W.G. Large, D. McKenna, B.D. Santer, and R.D. Smith, 2006: The Community Climate System Model: CCSM3. J. Clim., 19, 2122-2143, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3761.1.
Covey, C., P. J. Gleckler, T. J. Phillips, and D. C. Bader, 2006: Secular trends and climate drift in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. J. Geophys. Res., (Atmospheres), 111, D03107, doi:10.1029/2005JD006009.
Forster, P.M., and K.E. Taylor, 2006: Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from coupled climate model integrations. J. Clim., 19, 6181-6194, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3974.1.
Gleckler, P.J., K. AchutaRao, J.M. Gregory, B.D. Santer, K.E. Taylor, and T.M.L. Wigley, 2006: The effect of volcanic eruptions on ocean heat content and thermal expansion. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17702, doi:10.1029/2006GL026771.
Gleckler, P.J., B.D. Santer, T.M.L. Wigley, J.M. Gregory, K. AchutaRao, and K.E. Taylor, 2006: Volcanoes and climate: Krakatoa's signature persists in the ocean. Nature, 439, 675, doi: 10.1038/439675a.
Gleckler, P.J., K.R. Sperber, and K. AchutaRao, 2006: The annual cycle of global ocean heat content: Observed and simulated. J. Geophys. Res., 111, C06008, doi:10.1029/2005JC003223.
Lin, J.-L., G.N. Kiladis, B.E. Mapes, K.M. Weickmann, K.R. Sperber, W. Lin, M. Wheeler, S. Schubert, A. Del Genio, L.J. Donner, S. Emori, J-F. Gueremy, F. Hourdin, P.J. Rasch, E. Roeckner, and J.F. Scinocca, 2006: Tropical intraseasonal variability in 14 IPCC AR4 climate models part I: Convective signals. J Clim., 19, 2665-2690, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3735.1.
Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, B.D. Santer, W.D. Collins, J.M. Arblaster, A. Hu, D.M. Lawrence, H. Teng, L.E. Buja, and W.G. Strand, 2006: Climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries and climate change commitment in the CCSM3. J. Clim., 19, 2597-2616, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3746.1.
McClean, J., M.E. Maltrud, and F.O. Bryan, 2006: Measures of the fidelity of eddying ocean models. Oceanography, 19, 104-117. doi: 10.5670/oceanog.2006.94
Phillips, T.J., 2006: Reproducibility of seasonal land surface climate. J. Hydromet., 7, 114-136.doi: 10.1175/JHM453.1
Phillips, T.J., K. AchutaRao, D. Bader, C. Covey, C.M. Doutriaux, M. Fiorino, P.J. Gleckler, K.R. Sperber, and K.E. Taylor, 2006: Coupled climate model appraisal: A benchmark for future studies. Eos Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 87, doi:10.1029/2006EO190002.
Phillips, T.J., and P.J. Gleckler, 2006: Evaluation of continental precipitation in 20th-century climate simulations: The utility of multi-model statistics. Water Resour. Res., 42, W03202, doi:10.1029/2005WR004313.
Pierce, D.W., P.J. Gleckler, T.P. Barnett, K.M. AchutaRao, J.M. Gregory, and W.M. Washington, 2006: Anthropogenic warming of the oceans: observations and model results. J. Clim., 19, 1873â€“1900, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3723.1.
Pierce, D.W., P.J. Gleckler, T.P. Barnett, and E. Fetzer, 2006: Three-dimensional tropospheric water vapor in coupled climate models compared with observations from the AIRS satellite system. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L21701, doi:10.1029/2006GL027060.

2005

Annamalai, H., and K.R. Sperber, 2005: Regional heat sources and the active and break phases of Boreal summer intraseasonal variability. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 2726-2748. doi: 10.1175/JAS3504.1
Bader, D., A. Bamzai, J. Fein, A. Patrinos, and M. Leinen, 2005: The community climate system model project from an interagency perspective. EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 86 , 309 - 310.
Barnett, T.P., D. Pierce, K. AchutaRao, P. Gleckler, B.D. Santer, J. Gregory, and W. Washington, 2005: Penetration of human-induced warming signal into the world's oceans. Science, 309, 284-287, doi: 10.1126/science.1112418 .
Barnett, T.P., F. Zwiers, G. Hegerl, M. Allen, T. Crowley, N. Gillett, K. Hasselmann, P. D. Jones, B.D. Santer, R. Schnur, P. Stott, K.E. Taylor, and S.F.B. Tett, 2005: Detecting and attributing external influences on the climate system: A review of recent advances. J. Clim., 18, 1291-1314, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3329.1.
Boyle, J.S., D. Williamson, R. Cederwall, M. Fiorino, J. Hnilo, J. Olson, **T. Phillips,**G. Potter, and S. Xie, 2005: Diagnosis of community atmospheric model 2 (CAM2) in numerical weather forecast configuration at Atmospheric Radiation Measurement sites. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D15S15, doi:10.1029/2004JD005042.
Eyring, V., N.R.P. Harris, M. Rex, T.G. Shepherd, D.W. Fahey, G.T. Amanatidis, J. Austin, M.P. Chipperfield, M. Dameris, P.M.D.F. Forster, A. Gettelman, H.F. Graf, T. Nagashima, P.A. Newman, S. Pawson, M.J. Prather, J.A. Pyle, R.J. Salawitch, B.D. Santer, and D.W. Waugh, 2005: A strategy for process-oriented validation of coupled chemistry-climate models. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 1117â€“1133, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-86-8-1117.
Gibbard, S., K. Caldeira, G. Bala, T.J. Phillips, and M. Wickett, 2005: Climate effects of global land cover change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L23705, doi:10.1029/2005GL024550.
Gleckler, P.J., 2005: Surface energy balance errors in AGCMs: Implications for ocean-atmosphere model coupling. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15708, doi:10.1029/2005GL023061.
Hatsushika, H., J. Tsutsui, M. Fiorino, and K. Onogi, 2005: Impact of wind profile retrievals on the analysis of tropical cyclones in the JRA-25 reanalysis. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 891â€“905.
Liu, P., B. Wang, K.R. Sperber, T. Li, and G.A. Meehl, 2005: The Madden-Julian oscillation in the national center for atmospheric research community atmospheric model-2 with the Tiedtke convective scheme. J. Clim., 18, 3007â€“3020, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3458.1
McClean, J., D. Ivanova, and J. Sprintall, 2005: Remote origins of interannual variability in the Indonesian Throughflow region from data and a global Parallel Ocean Program simulation. J. Geophys. Res., 110, C10013, doi:10.1029/2004JC002477.
Meehl, G. A., C. Covey, B. McAvaney, M. Latif, and R. J. Stouffer, 2005: Overview of the coupled model intercomparison project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 89â€“93, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-86-1-89.
Prasad, T., J. McClean, E. Hunke, A. Semtner, and D. Ivanova, 2005: A numerical study of the western Cosmonaut polynya in a coupled ocean-sea ice model. J. Geophys. Res., 110, C10008, doi:10.1029/2004JC002858.
Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, C. Mears, F.J. Wentz, S.A. Klein, D.J. Seidel, K.E. Taylor, P.W. Thorne, M.F. Wehner, P.J. Gleckler, J.S. Boyle, W.D. Collins, K.W. Dixon, C. Doutriaux, M. Free, Q. Fu, J.E. Hansen, J.G.S., R. Ruedy, T.R. Karl, J.R. Lanzante, G. A. Meehl, V. Ramaswamy, G. Russell, and G.A. Schmidt, 2005: Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere. Science, 309, 1551â€“1556, doi: 10.1126/science.1114867.
K. R. Sperber, Slingo, J. M. and P. M. Inness, 2005: Modelling the Madden-Julian oscillation. Chapter 11 in Intraseasonal Variability of the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System. W.K.M. Lau and D. E. Waliser, Eds., Praxis Publishing, Chicchester, UK., 436pp.
Sperber, K.R., G. Gualdi, S. Legutke, and V. Gayler, 2005: The Madden-Julian oscillation in ECHAM4 coupled and uncoupled GCMs. Clim. Dyn., 25, 117â€“140, doi: 10.1007/s00382-005-0026-3.
Sudradjat, A., R. R. Ferraro, and M. Fiorino, 2005: A comparison of total precipitable water between reanalyses and NVAP. J. Clim., 18, 1790â€“1807, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3379.1.
Wigley, T.M.L., C.M. Ammann, B.D. Santer, and S.C.B. Raper, 2005: The effect of climate sensitivity on the response to volcanic forcing. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D09107, doi:10.1029/2004JD005557.
Wigley, T.M.L., C.M. Ammann, B.D. Santer, and K.E. Taylor, 2005: Comment on "Climate forcing by the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo" by David H. Douglass and Robert S. Knox. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20709, doi:10.1029/2005GL023312.

2004

Coquard, J., P.B. Duffy, K.E. Taylor, and J.P. Iorio, 2004: Present and future surface climate in the western USA as simulated by 15 global climate models. Clim. Dyn., 23, 455-472, doi: 10.1007/s00382-004-0437-6.
Covey, C., K.M. AchutaRao, P.J. Gleckler, T.J. Phillips, K.E. Taylor, and M.F. Wehner, 2004: Coupled ocean-atmosphere climate simulations compared with simulations using prescribed sea surface temperature: effect of a 'perfect ocean'. Global and Planet. Ch., 41, 1-14. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2003.09.003
Gillett, N.P., B.D. Santer, and A.J. Weaver, 2004: Stratospheric cooling and the troposphere. Nature, 432, doi:10.1038/nature03209.
Hannachi, A., D.B. Stephenson, and K.R. Sperber, 2004: Probability-based methods for quantifying nonlinearity in the ENSO (Erratum). Clim. Dyn., 22, 69-70, doi: 10.1007/s00382-003-0377-6.
Phillips, T.J., and P.J. Gleckler, 2004: Evaluation of continental precipitation in 20th-century climate simulations. Water Resour. Res., 42, W03202, doi:10.1029/2005WR004313.
Phillips, T.J., G.L. Potter, D.L. Williamson, R.T. Cederwall, J. S. Boyle, M. Fiorino, J.J. Hnilo, J.G. Olson, S. Xie, and J.J. Yio, 2004: Evaluating parameterizations in general circulation models: Climate simulation meets weather prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 1903-1915, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-85-12-1903.
Santer, B.D., M.F. Wehner, T.M.L. Wigley, R. Sausen, G.A. Meehl, K.E. Taylor, C. Ammann, J. Arblaster, W.M. Washington, J.S. Boyle, and W. Bruggemann, 2004: Response to comment on "Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes". Science, 303, 1771, doi: 10.1126/science.1092441 .
Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, and R. Ragaini, 2004: New fingerprints of human effects on climate. In: International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies, 30th Session, World Scientific Publishing, New Jersey, 69-85. DOI:10.1142/9789812702753_0008
Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, A. Simmons, P. Kalberg, G. Kelly, S. Uppala, C. Ammann, J.S. Boyle, W. Bruggemann, C. Doutriaux, M. Fiorino, C. Mears, G.A. Meehl, R. Sausen, K.E. Taylor, W.M. Washington, M.F. Wehner, and F.J. Wentz, 2004: Identification of anthropogenic climate change using a second-generation reanalysis. J. Geophys. Res., 109, D21104, doi:10.1029/2004JD005075.
Seidel, D. J., J. Angell, et al., 2004: Uncertainty in signals of large-scale climate variations in radiosonde and satellite upper-air temperature datasets. J. Clim., 17, 2225-2240, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2225:UISOLC>2.0.CO;2
Sperber, K.R., 2004: Madden-Julian Variability in NCAR CAM2.0 and CCSM2.0. Clim. Dyn., 23, 259-278, doi: 10.1007/s00382-004-0447-4.

2003

Black, E., J. Slingo, and K.R. Sperber, 2003: East African rainfall and Indian Ocean SST. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 74-94, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0074:AOSOTR>2.0.CO;2.
Covey, C., K.M. AchutaRao, U. Cubasch, P. Jones, S.J. Lambert, M.E. Mann, T.J. Phillips, and K.E. Taylor, 2003: An overview of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Glob. Planet. Ch., 37, 103-133. doi: 10.1016/S0921-8181(02)00193-5
Duffy, P. B., B. Govindasamy, J. P. Iorio, J. Milovich, K. R. Sperber, K. E. Taylor, M. F. Wehner, and S. L. Thompson, 2003: High resolution simulations of global climate, part 1: present climate. Clim. Dyn., 21, 371-390, doi: 10.1007/s00382-003-0339-z
Hanachi, A., D. B. Stephenson, and K. R. Sperber, 2003: Probability-based methods for quantifying nonlinearity in the ENSO. Clim. Dyn., 20, 241-256, doi: 10.1007/s00382-002-0263-7.
Hodges, K.I., B.J. Hoskins, J. Boyle, and C. Thorncroft, 2003: A comparison of recent reanalysis datasets using objective feature tracking: storm tracks and tropical Easterly waves. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 2012-2037, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<2012:ACORRD>2.0.CO;2.
Santer, B.D., R. Sausen, T.M.L. Wigley, J.S. Boyle, K. AchutaRao, C. Doutriaux, J.E. Hansen, G.A. Meehl, E. Roeckner, R. Ruedy, G. Schmidt, and K.E. Taylor, 2003: Behavior of tropopause height and atmospheric temperature in models, reanalyses, and observations: Decadal changes. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4002, doi:10.1029/2002JD002258.
Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, G.A. Meehl, M.F. Wehner, C. Mears, M. Schabel, F.J. Wentz, C. Ammann, J. Arblaster, T. Bettge, W.M. Washington, K.E. Taylor, J.S. Boyle, W. Bruggemann, and C. Doutriaux, 2003: Influence of satellite data uncertainties on the detection of externally-forced climate change. Science, 300, 1280-1284, doi:10.1126/science.1082393.
Santer, B.D., M.F. Wehner, T.M.L. Wigley, R. Sausen, G.A. Meehl, K.E. Taylor, C. Ammann, J. Arblaster, W.M. Washington, J.S. Boyle, and W. BrÃƒÂ¼ggemann, 2003: Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes. Science, 301, 479-483, doi:10.1126/science.1084123.
Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, G.A. Meehl, M.F. Wehner, C. Mears, M. Schabel, F.J. Wentz, C. Ammann, J. Arblaster, T. Bettge, W.M. Washington, K.E. Taylor, J.S. Boyle, W. Bruggemann, and C. Doutriaux, 2003: Response to J.R. Christy and R.W. Spencer. Science, 301, 1047-1049, doi: 10.1126/science.301.5636.1046.
Sausen, R., and B.D. Santer, 2003: Use of changes in tropopause height to detect human influences on climate. Meteor. Z., 12, 131-136. DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2003/0012-0131
Smith, R.L., T.M.L. Wigley, and B.D. Santer, 2003: A bivariate time series approach to anthropogenic trend detection in hemispheric mean temperatures. J. Clim., 16, 1228-1240, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)16<1228:ABTSAT>2.0.CO;2.
Sperber, K.R., 2003: Propagation and the vertical structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 3018-3037, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<3018:PATVSO>2.0.CO;2.

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