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Temperature changes in Warsaw 2004-2019

Load data

Data was downloaded manually from https://dane.imgw.pl/ and I stored them in 'data-raw' folder. Here are the dimensions of obtained data frame:

## [1] 140256    107

The data set contained over 140000 rows and 107 columns. Unfortunately tables did not contain column names, so I needed to enter them manually ( I will skip that ugly part).

This is all about temperature so let's select the right columns and translate them to English.

Explore data

Missing values

naniar package is nice for missing data visualization.

And this is great as we have a complete data set! Let's explore it further.

Temperature values distribution

That's quite interesting. We see a bimodal distribution across most of the years (summer and winter? what about spring and autumn? do we still have 4 seasons?). 2012 looks like it had the most moderate temperatures as it is flat at the top. Anyway, let's split it by seasons. Let's assume that winter is 21-Dec - 20 Mar, spring 21-Mar - 20 Jun, summer 21-Jun - 20-Sept, Autumn 21-Sept - 20-Dec

It looks like summer is the most stable season. There is a lot of variation in other seasons across the years. How it will look like when we split it by year: Red vertical line indicates the median values per season of each year.

Trend analysis (seasons)

It's difficult to see the trend on the charts above. Let's plot median values for each season each year: Yep, the median temperature of all the seasons generally increases in time. Here is the plot with all data points for reference and a boxplot:

## Loading required package: grid

Compare trends (seasons)

The way to check which season temperature is increasing faster is to compare betas (slope angle) of linear model. Here are the betas for each season: Winter and spring are warming at the fastest pace. Around 0.16 and 0.15 degrees of Celcius per year. Autumn is the most stable but still warming.