2024-09-10-hjort24a.md

title	booktitle	year	volume	series	month	publisher	pdf	url	abstract	layout	issn	id	tex_title	firstpage	lastpage	page	order	cycles	bibtex_editor	editor	bibtex_author	author	date	address	container-title	genre	issued	extras
Clustered Conformal Prediction for the Housing Market	Proceedings of the Thirteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications	2024	230	Proceedings of Machine Learning Research	0	PMLR	https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mlresearch/v230/main/assets/hjort24a/hjort24a.pdf	https://proceedings.mlr.press/v230/hjort24a.html	Conformal prediction (CP) is a framework for constructing confidence sets around predictions from machine learning models with finite sample guarantees with few assumptions on both the prediction model and the data. In practice, the construction of CP sets typically relies on quantile estimates from an empirical distribution of non-conformity scores. When the data set consists of predefined, non-overlapping classes such as geographical regions, a common technique for improving the confidence sets is to calculate a different quantile for each class. However, the classwise quantile estimate suffers from high variance when the number of observations in each class is low. To circumvent this, one can share calibration data between classes with similar empirical distributions of non-conformity scores to reduce the variance of the quantile estimate. We study this approach for the application of house price prediction in the Norwegian housing market, where $286$ different municipalities serve as the initial classes of the data. We find that clustering together municipalities based on non-conformity score distributions, agnostic of the spatial distance between them, leads to CP sets that achieve, on average, a lower coverage gap in each municipality, in particular for the municipalities with few observations.	inproceedings	2640-3498	hjort24a	Clustered Conformal Prediction for the Housing Market	366	386	366-386	366	false	Vantini, Simone and Fontana, Matteo and Solari, Aldo and Bostr\"{o}m, Henrik and Carlsson, Lars	given family Simone Vantini given family Matteo Fontana given family Aldo Solari given family Henrik Boström given family Lars Carlsson	Hjort, Anders and Williams, Jonathan P. and Pensar, Johan	given family Anders Hjort given family Jonathan P. Williams given family Johan Pensar	2024-09-10		Proceedings of the Thirteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications	inproceedings	date-parts 2024 9 10