2024-09-10-vovk24a.md

title	booktitle	year	volume	series	month	publisher	pdf	url	abstract	layout	issn	id	tex_title	firstpage	lastpage	page	order	cycles	bibtex_editor	editor	bibtex_author	author	date	address	container-title	genre	issued	extras
Asymptotic uniqueness in long-term prediction	Proceedings of the Thirteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications	2024	230	Proceedings of Machine Learning Research	0	PMLR	https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mlresearch/v230/main/assets/vovk24a/vovk24a.pdf	https://proceedings.mlr.press/v230/vovk24a.html	This paper establishes the asymptotic uniqueness of long-term probability forecasts in the following form. Consider two forecasters who repeatedly issue probability forecasts for the infinite future. The main result of the paper says that either at least one of the two forecasters will be discredited or their forecasts will converge in total variation. This can be regarded as a game-theoretic version of the classical Blackwell–Dubins result getting rid of some of its limitations. This result is further strengthened along the lines of Richard Jeffrey’s radical probabilism.	inproceedings	2640-3498	vovk24a	Asymptotic uniqueness in long-term prediction	90	104	90-104	90	false	Vantini, Simone and Fontana, Matteo and Solari, Aldo and Bostr\"{o}m, Henrik and Carlsson, Lars	given family Simone Vantini given family Matteo Fontana given family Aldo Solari given family Henrik Boström given family Lars Carlsson	Vovk, Vladimir	given family Vladimir Vovk	2024-09-10		Proceedings of the Thirteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications	inproceedings	date-parts 2024 9 10