2024-04-18-chang24a.md

title	software	abstract	layout	series	publisher	issn	id	month	tex_title	firstpage	lastpage	page	order	cycles	bibtex_author	author	date	address	container-title	volume	genre	issued	pdf	extras
Probabilistic Modeling for Sequences of Sets in Continuous-Time	https://github.com/yuxinc17/set_valued_mtpp	Neural marked temporal point processes have been a valuable addition to the existing toolbox of statistical parametric models for continuous-time event data. These models are useful for sequences where each event is associated with a single item (a single type of event or a “mark”)—but such models are not suited for the practical situation where each event is associated with a set of items. In this work, we develop a general framework for modeling set-valued data in continuous-time, compatible with any intensity-based recurrent neural point process model. In addition, we develop inference methods that can use such models to answer probabilistic queries such as “the probability of item A being observed before item B,” conditioned on sequence history. Computing exact answers for such queries is generally intractable for neural models due to both the continuous-time nature of the problem setting and the combinatorially-large space of potential outcomes for each event. To address this, we develop a class of importance sampling methods for querying with set-based sequences and demonstrate orders-of-magnitude improvements in efficiency over direct sampling via systematic experiments with four real-world datasets. We also illustrate how to use this framework to perform model selection using likelihoods that do not involve one-step-ahead prediction.	inproceedings	Proceedings of Machine Learning Research	PMLR	2640-3498	chang24a	0	Probabilistic Modeling for Sequences of Sets in Continuous-Time	4357	4365	4357-4365	4357	false	Chang, Yuxin and J Boyd, Alex and Smyth, Padhraic	given family Yuxin Chang given family Alex J Boyd given family Padhraic Smyth	2024-04-18		Proceedings of The 27th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics	238	inproceedings	date-parts 2024 4 18	https://proceedings.mlr.press/v238/chang24a/chang24a.pdf