diff --git a/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart.Rmd b/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart.Rmd index a05e4be9..5bc08c02 100644 --- a/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart.Rmd +++ b/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart.Rmd @@ -62,6 +62,8 @@ Before moving forward, a thank you to the invaluable resource that [Over The Cap **Updated on April 17, 2023**: Added position-specific draft curves. +**Updated on April, 2024**: Added 2019 draft class to on-field value calculations. + # Part 1: Make a surplus value curve In order to calculate the surplus value of each pick. We need two pieces of information. First, how much each pick costs (the contract); and second, how much benefit each pick provides (on-field performance). @@ -75,7 +77,7 @@ The first thing we need is the actual cost of each draft pick's contract. Some g page <- read_html(url) %>% html_table() - # count rounts + # count rounds r <- 0 t <- map_df(1:length(page), ~{ @@ -146,7 +148,7 @@ This is pretty simple: take the APY in terms of percent of the cap for each draf ```{r, echo = FALSE} players <- nflreadr::load_contracts() %>% - filter(between(draft_year, 2011, 2018)) %>% + filter(between(draft_year, 2011, 2019)) %>% arrange(otc_id, year_signed) %>% group_by(otc_id) %>% dplyr::slice(1:2) %>% @@ -164,9 +166,6 @@ This is pretty simple: take the APY in terms of percent of the cap for each draf mutate( # fill in 0 for guys who didn't get 2nd contract apy_cap_pct = ifelse(contracts == 1, 0, apy_cap_pct), - # Calvin Ridley got a year added to his rookie deal for...reasons - # Let's assume he'll get something like the tag value - apy_cap_pct = ifelse(player == "Calvin Ridley", (19.7/224.8), apy_cap_pct), # make some buckets for positions pos = case_when( position %in% c("C", "RG", "LG") ~ "IOL", @@ -264,7 +263,7 @@ Using cost and on-field performance, we can now construct a surplus value curve: ``` -How to read the chart: the first pick in the draft costs 4.1% of the salary cap (orange line). The on-field production is expected to be 6.4% of the salary cap (purple line). Thus, the surplus value associated with the first pick in the draft is 2.3% of the salary cap (green line). +How to read the chart: the first pick in the draft costs 4.1% of the salary cap (orange line). The on-field production is expected to be 6.5% of the salary cap (purple line). Thus, the surplus value associated with the first pick in the draft is 2.4% of the salary cap (green line). We have re-produced the now-familiar result that for teams not drafting a quarterback, the surplus value of the very top picks is lower than later in the first round and even throughout most of the second round. This is because the dropoff in salary that teams have to pay to draft picks (orange line) is steeper than the dropoff in on-field value (purple line). This reflects the fact that teams are not very good at identifying the best players in the draft. We have [a lot of evidence that this is the case](https://www.pff.com/news/draft-surplus-value-of-each-position-in-the-nfl-draft). @@ -468,7 +467,7 @@ off + def & scale_y_continuous(limits = c(0, 8), expand = c(0, 0.05), breaks = scales::pretty_breaks(n = 10)) & plot_annotation( title = 'The Value of (non-QB) Draft Picks', - subtitle = 'Draft Curves from 2011-2018 Draft Classes', + subtitle = 'Draft Curves from 2011-2019 Draft Classes', caption = '@benbbaldwin', theme = theme( plot.title = element_text(size = 18, hjust = 0.5, face="bold"), @@ -492,17 +491,17 @@ Let's start with last year's controversial Lions-Vikings trade, in which the Vik Here's the trade with the estimated values obtained from this post (again, the full table is displayed below): -* Lions receive: No. 12 (100), No. 46 (73). Total: 173 -* Vikings receive: No. 32 (82), No. 34 (86), No. 66 (55). Total: 223 -* Difference: 50, which is the value of **pick No. 72** +* Lions receive: No. 12 (100), No. 46 (71). Total: 171 +* Vikings receive: No. 32 (81), No. 34 (84), No. 66 (54). Total: 219 +* Difference: 48, which is the value of **pick No. 73** So the surplus value the Vikings obtained in this trade was the equivalent of an early third-round pick. Not bad for a trade that popular commentary thought that they lost! What if we ignored surplus value and just looked at on-field value (i.e., player production ignoring cost)? -* Lions receive: No. 12 (87), No. 46 (54). Total: 141 -* Vikings receive: No. 32 (66), No. 34 (64), No. 66 (41). Total: 171 -* Difference: 30, which is the value of **pick No. 91**, or a pick towards the end of the 3rd round. +* Lions receive: No. 12 (87), No. 46 (53). Total: 140 +* Vikings receive: No. 32 (65), No. 34 (64), No. 66 (40). Total: 169 +* Difference: 29, which is the value of **pick No. 92**, or a pick towards the end of the 3rd round. So even if you ignore the cost of players entirely (which is not a good idea in a league with a salary cap), there is no argument against the Vikings winning this trade in terms of the expected value of the picks. @@ -510,21 +509,21 @@ So even if you ignore the cost of players entirely (which is not a good idea in One of the worst draft-day trades I can remember that didn't involve players or future picks was the Jets trading up for Alijah Vera-Tucker in 2021. Let's see how bad it looks using the chart below: -* Jets receive: No. 14 (100), No. 143 (20). Total: 120 -* Vikings receive: No. 23 (91), No. 66 (55), No. 86 (41). Total: 187 -* Difference: 67, which is more than the value of **pick No. 3** (which is the same as the surplus value of pick 53) +* Jets receive: No. 14 (100), No. 143 (19). Total: 119 +* Vikings receive: No. 23 (90), No. 66 (54), No. 86 (40). Total: 184 +* Difference: 65, which is more than the value of **pick No. 1** (which is the same as the surplus value of pick 53) -Being extremely generous to the Jets, we could say they gave up the surplus value of a 2nd round pick to move up for a guard. Alternatively, we could say they gave up the surplus value of the No. 3 pick! +Being extremely generous to the Jets, we could say they gave up the surplus value of a 2nd round pick to move up for a guard. Alternatively, we could say they gave up the surplus value of the No. 1 pick! ## Player for picks trade This is somewhat complicated since some of the picks were in the future. Let's be generous to the Seahawks and discount the 2022 picks by 10 percent. We will now use the APY version of the table in order to calculate the total cost of the Adams trade and extension: * Seahawks receive: 2022 pick 109 (1.11 * .9) -* Jets receive: 2021 pick 23 (3.28), 2021 pick 86 (1.50), 2022 pick 10 (3.42 * .9) -* Difference: 3.28 + 1.50 + (3.42 * .9) - (1.11 * .9) = **6.9 percent of the salary cap** per year over 4 years +* Jets receive: 2021 pick 23 (3.34), 2021 pick 86 (1.50), 2022 pick 10 (3.53 * .9) +* Difference: 3.34 + 1.50 + (3.53 * .9) - (1.11 * .9) = **7.0 percent of the salary cap** per year over 4 years -So we have arrived at 6.9% of the salary cap in APY per year over 4 years as the value of picks given up for the Seahawks. Adams' 4-year deal extension with the Seahawks was $17.5 APY, or 9.6% of the salary cap at the time, per OTC. Dividing 6.9% (draft surplus given up) by 9.6% (contract APY), we need to inflate Adams' APY by 72%, arriving at a true contract cost of, **30.1 million dollars per year over 4 years**. +So we have arrived at 7.0% of the salary cap in APY per year over 4 years as the value of picks given up for the Seahawks. Adams' 4-year deal extension with the Seahawks was $17.5 APY, or 9.6% of the salary cap at the time, per OTC. Dividing 7.0% (draft surplus given up) by 9.6% (contract APY), we need to inflate Adams' APY by 73%, arriving at a true contract cost of, **30.3 million dollars per year over 4 years**. This is the same ballpark that Bill Barnwell landed on in his [review of the trade](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29538280/jamal-adams-trade-grades-seahawks-jets-safety-really-worth-much), which was written before the extension was signed. Barnwell assumed an extension of $16 million APY: diff --git a/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart.html b/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart.html index 60dd0e0f..4646b608 100644 --- a/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart.html +++ b/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart.html @@ -94,8 +94,8 @@ - - + + @@ -119,12 +119,12 @@ @@ -236,9 +236,21 @@ display: none !important; } + hr.section-separator { + border: none; + border-top: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1); + margin: 0px; + } + + + d-byline { + border-top: none; + } + d-article { padding-top: 2.5rem; padding-bottom: 30px; + border-top: none; } d-appendix { @@ -335,6 +347,11 @@ font-size: 14px; } + /* tweak for Pandoc numbered line within distill */ + d-article pre.numberSource code > span { + left: -2em; + } + d-article pre { font-size: 14px; } @@ -1094,6 +1111,12 @@ // create d-title $('.d-title').changeElementType('d-title'); + // separator + var separator = '
'; + // prepend separator above appendix + $('.d-byline').before(separator); + $('.d-article').before(separator); + // create d-byline var byline = $(''); $('.d-byline').replaceWith(byline); @@ -1171,8 +1194,9 @@ $('.distill-force-highlighting-css').parent().remove(); // remove empty line numbers inserted by pandoc when using a - // custom syntax highlighting theme - $('code.sourceCode a:empty').remove(); + // custom syntax highlighting theme, except when numbering line + // in code chunk + $('pre:not(.numberLines) code.sourceCode a:empty').remove(); // load distill framework load_distill_framework(); @@ -1198,12 +1222,13 @@ // add orcid ids $('.authors-affiliations').find('.author').each(function(i, el) { var orcid_id = front_matter.authors[i].orcidID; + var author_name = front_matter.authors[i].author if (orcid_id) { var a = $(''); a.attr('href', 'https://orcid.org/' + orcid_id); var img = $(''); img.addClass('orcid-id'); - img.attr('alt', 'ORCID ID'); + img.attr('alt', author_name ? 'ORCID ID for ' + author_name : 'ORCID ID'); img.attr('src','data:image/png;base64,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'); a.append(img); $(this).append(a); @@ -1481,7 +1506,7 @@ - + @@ -1502,7 +1527,7 @@ @@ -1513,6 +1538,7 @@

NFL Draft Value Chart

+
NFL Draft
@@ -1525,7 +1551,7 @@

NFL Draft Value Chart

Ben Baldwin https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/ -
2023-04-17 +
2024-03-28
@@ -1572,6 +1598,7 @@

Contents

Updated on February 27, 2023: (a) added more picks to the table at the bottom so it now displays picks 1-256, (b) added on-field value to table at the bottom, and (c) re-scaled surplus value so it’s 0-to-100 (thank you to Luckym4n_ for the suggestion)/

Updated on April 11, 2023: Add 2018 draft class to on-field value calculations. Now covers 2011 through 2018. For Calvin Ridley, assume he’ll get an extension equivalent to tag value. In addition, use archieved version of Sportrac rookie contract value to avoid site updates breaking the scrape.

Updated on April 17, 2023: Added position-specific draft curves.

+

Updated on April, 2024: Added 2019 draft class to on-field value calculations.

Part 1: Make a surplus value curve

In order to calculate the surplus value of each pick. We need two pieces of information. First, how much each pick costs (the contract); and second, how much benefit each pick provides (on-field performance).

How expensive is each draft pick’s rookie deal?

@@ -1592,7 +1619,7 @@

On-field value versus surplus value

-

How to read the chart: the first pick in the draft costs 4.1% of the salary cap (orange line). The on-field production is expected to be 6.4% of the salary cap (purple line). Thus, the surplus value associated with the first pick in the draft is 2.3% of the salary cap (green line).

+

How to read the chart: the first pick in the draft costs 4.1% of the salary cap (orange line). The on-field production is expected to be 6.5% of the salary cap (purple line). Thus, the surplus value associated with the first pick in the draft is 2.4% of the salary cap (green line).

We have re-produced the now-familiar result that for teams not drafting a quarterback, the surplus value of the very top picks is lower than later in the first round and even throughout most of the second round. This is because the dropoff in salary that teams have to pay to draft picks (orange line) is steeper than the dropoff in on-field value (purple line). This reflects the fact that teams are not very good at identifying the best players in the draft. We have a lot of evidence that this is the case.

This pattern of later first round picks having higher surplus value than early first round picks was originally referred to as the loser’s curse in the seminal paper by Cade Massey and Richard Thaler. Massey and Thaler wrote their paper during the pre-2011 CBA when rookie contracts were a lot more expensive; however, the pattern still holds up now. In addition, we have replicated earlier findings by PFF’s Timo Riske using a similar approach that took advantage of player contract data and yet another study by Riske that used PFF Wins Above Replacement (WAR).

In particular, our chart above looks remarkably similar to this picture below from Timo’s work, which is always a good sign that we’re on the right track:

@@ -1624,34 +1651,34 @@

Draft day trade: example 1

Let’s start with last year’s controversial Lions-Vikings trade, in which the Vikings were panned for the lack of return they got for moving back 20 picks in the first round.

Here’s the trade with the estimated values obtained from this post (again, the full table is displayed below):

    -
  • Lions receive: No. 12 (100), No. 46 (73). Total: 173
    • -
  • Vikings receive: No. 32 (82), No. 34 (86), No. 66 (55). Total: 223
    • -
  • Difference: 50, which is the value of pick No. 72
    • +
  • Lions receive: No. 12 (100), No. 46 (71). Total: 171
    • +
  • Vikings receive: No. 32 (81), No. 34 (84), No. 66 (54). Total: 219
    • +
  • Difference: 48, which is the value of pick No. 73

So the surplus value the Vikings obtained in this trade was the equivalent of an early third-round pick. Not bad for a trade that popular commentary thought that they lost!

What if we ignored surplus value and just looked at on-field value (i.e., player production ignoring cost)?

    -
  • Lions receive: No. 12 (87), No. 46 (54). Total: 141
    • -
  • Vikings receive: No. 32 (66), No. 34 (64), No. 66 (41). Total: 171
    • -
  • Difference: 30, which is the value of pick No. 91, or a pick towards the end of the 3rd round.
    • +
  • Lions receive: No. 12 (87), No. 46 (53). Total: 140
    • +
  • Vikings receive: No. 32 (65), No. 34 (64), No. 66 (40). Total: 169
    • +
  • Difference: 29, which is the value of pick No. 92, or a pick towards the end of the 3rd round.

So even if you ignore the cost of players entirely (which is not a good idea in a league with a salary cap), there is no argument against the Vikings winning this trade in terms of the expected value of the picks.

Draft day trade: example 2

One of the worst draft-day trades I can remember that didn’t involve players or future picks was the Jets trading up for Alijah Vera-Tucker in 2021. Let’s see how bad it looks using the chart below:

    -
  • Jets receive: No. 14 (100), No. 143 (20). Total: 120
    • -
  • Vikings receive: No. 23 (91), No. 66 (55), No. 86 (41). Total: 187
    • -
  • Difference: 67, which is more than the value of pick No. 3 (which is the same as the surplus value of pick 53)
    • +
  • Jets receive: No. 14 (100), No. 143 (19). Total: 119
    • +
  • Vikings receive: No. 23 (90), No. 66 (54), No. 86 (40). Total: 184
    • +
  • Difference: 65, which is more than the value of pick No. 1 (which is the same as the surplus value of pick 53)
-

Being extremely generous to the Jets, we could say they gave up the surplus value of a 2nd round pick to move up for a guard. Alternatively, we could say they gave up the surplus value of the No. 3 pick!

+

Being extremely generous to the Jets, we could say they gave up the surplus value of a 2nd round pick to move up for a guard. Alternatively, we could say they gave up the surplus value of the No. 1 pick!

Player for picks trade

This is somewhat complicated since some of the picks were in the future. Let’s be generous to the Seahawks and discount the 2022 picks by 10 percent. We will now use the APY version of the table in order to calculate the total cost of the Adams trade and extension:

  • Seahawks receive: 2022 pick 109 (1.11 * .9)
    • -
  • Jets receive: 2021 pick 23 (3.28), 2021 pick 86 (1.50), 2022 pick 10 (3.42 * .9)
    • -
  • Difference: 3.28 + 1.50 + (3.42 * .9) - (1.11 * .9) = 6.9 percent of the salary cap per year over 4 years
    • +
  • Jets receive: 2021 pick 23 (3.34), 2021 pick 86 (1.50), 2022 pick 10 (3.53 * .9)
    • +
  • Difference: 3.34 + 1.50 + (3.53 * .9) - (1.11 * .9) = 7.0 percent of the salary cap per year over 4 years
-

So we have arrived at 6.9% of the salary cap in APY per year over 4 years as the value of picks given up for the Seahawks. Adams’ 4-year deal extension with the Seahawks was $17.5 APY, or 9.6% of the salary cap at the time, per OTC. Dividing 6.9% (draft surplus given up) by 9.6% (contract APY), we need to inflate Adams’ APY by 72%, arriving at a true contract cost of, 30.1 million dollars per year over 4 years.

+

So we have arrived at 7.0% of the salary cap in APY per year over 4 years as the value of picks given up for the Seahawks. Adams’ 4-year deal extension with the Seahawks was $17.5 APY, or 9.6% of the salary cap at the time, per OTC. Dividing 7.0% (draft surplus given up) by 9.6% (contract APY), we need to inflate Adams’ APY by 73%, arriving at a true contract cost of, 30.3 million dollars per year over 4 years.

This is the same ballpark that Bill Barnwell landed on in his review of the trade, which was written before the extension was signed. Barnwell assumed an extension of $16 million APY:

“Factor in the cost of acquiring Adams and that four-year, $64 million extension suddenly becomes a four-year, $108.5 million contract. Instead of paying Adams $16 million per year, now he has cost the Seahawks more than $27 million per season, which is more than anybody in the league who isn’t a quarterback. If their picks end up being juicier than they were expecting, that price goes up. Adams has to be the best non-quarterback in the league to make the math work.”

@@ -1661,15 +1688,27 @@

Player for picks trade

Part 4: The full table

Here’s the full table:

-
+
- - - +
+ + - - - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - - - + + + - + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - - + + - + - + - - + + - - + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - - + + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - - + + - - + + - - - + + + - + - + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - + + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - - + + - + - + - - + + - - + + - - + + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - - + + - + - - + + - - + + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - + + - + - - + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - + - - + + - - + + - - - + + + - + - + - - + + - - + + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - + - + - - + + - - + + - - - + + + - + - - + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - + - - + + - + - - + + - + - - - + + + - + - - + + - - + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - - + + - + - - - + + + - + - - + + - - - + + + - + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - - + + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - + - - + + - + - - + + - + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - + - - + + - + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - + - - + + - + - + - + - + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - + - + - + - + - - + + - + - + - + - - + + - + - + - + - + - + - - + + - + - + - + - + - - - + + + - + - + - + - + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - + - + - + - + - - + + - + - + - + - + - +
BB Draft Value Chart
PickPoints1APY2OFV3Points1APY2OFV3 PickPoints1APY2OFV3Points1APY2OFV3 PickPoints1APY2OFV3Points1APY2OFV3 PickPoints1APY2OFV3Points1APY2OFV3
1622.25642.38 100 65562.0541552.0440 129230.84220.83 20 19390.3312
80.3111
2652.35672.48 99 66552.0141542.0040 130230.83220.82 20 19490.3380.31 11
3662.3998682.5297 675553 1.974039 131230.8220220.8119 19590.3280.30 11
4682.45692.57 96 68541.94521.93 39 1322221 0.802019 19690.3180.29 11
5722.60732.72 95 69531.9139511.9038 133220.7920210.7819 197 80.310.29 11
6812.95823.06 94 70521.8838501.8737 134220.78210.77 19 198 80.3011
0.2810
7 893.203.32 93 71511.8538501.8437 135 210.770.76 19 19980.2911
70.2710
8 963.463.57 91 72501.82491.81 37 136210.76200.75 19 20080.2911
70.2710
9 943.413.51 90 734948 1.793736 137210.7719200.7618 20180.2811
70.2610
10 953.423.53 89 744947 1.76 36 138210.7619200.7518 20280.2811
70.2510
11963.49973.59 88 75481.7436471.7335 139210.7719200.7618 203 70.2711
0.2510
12 1003.623.72 87 76471.7236461.7135 140210.7619200.7518 204 70.260.24 10
13 993.60863.6985 774745 1.693534 141210.75200.74 18 20570.2660.24 10
14 1003.61853.7084 78461.6735451.6634 142210.74200.73 18 20670.2560.23 10
15993.57983.66 83 794544 1.64 34 143200.74190.72 18 20770.2560.23 10
161003.60993.69 82 804544 1.623433 144200.7318190.7117 20870.2460.22 10
17993.57983.65 81 814443 1.603433 145200.7218190.7117 209 60.2310
0.229
18983.54973.62 80 824442 1.58 33 146200.7218190.7017 210 60.2310
0.219
19973.50963.57 79 834342 1.563332 147200.7118190.6917 211 60.2210
0.219
20953.44943.51 78 844241 1.543332 148190.7018180.6817 21260.2210
50.209
21 933.38773.4576 854241 1.52 32 149190.69180.68 17 21360.2110
50.209
22923.3376913.4075 864140 1.503231 150190.69180.67 17 21460.2150.19 9
23913.2875903.3474 874140 1.483231 151190.68180.66 17 21560.2050.19 9
24903.2574893.3173 884039 1.46 31 152190.6717180.6516 216 50.200.18 9
25 883.20733.2672 894039 1.443130 153180.6617170.6416 217 50.190.18 9
26873.1572863.2171 903938 1.423130 154180.6617170.6316 218 50.190.17 9
27863.1171853.1670 913938 1.40 30 155180.6517170.6316 219 50.180.17 9
28 843.05703.1169 923837 1.383029 156180.6417170.6216 22050.1840.16 9
29853.0669843.1168 933837 1.363029 157170.63160.61 16 22150.1740.16 9
30843.0368833.0867 943736 1.34 29 158170.62160.60 16 22250.179
40.168
31833.0067823.0566 953736 1.322928 159170.6116160.5915 22350.169
40.158
32822.9666813.0165 963635 1.302928 160170.6016160.5815 224 40.169
0.158
33873.1565863.1964 97 351.281.29 28 161160.5916150.5715 225 40.169
0.148
34863.10843.14 64 983534 1.262827 162160.5816150.5615 226 40.159
0.148
35843.05833.09 63 993433 1.242827 163160.5816150.5515 227 40.150.14 8
36833.01823.04 62 1003433 1.22 27 164160.57150.54 15 228 40.140.13 8
37822.9662812.9961 1013332 1.20 27 165150.56140.53 15 22940.1430.13 8
38812.9261792.9560 102331.1827321.1926 166150.5515140.5314 23043 0.13 8
39802.8860782.9159 103321.16311.17 26 167150.5415140.5214 23140.1330.12 8
40782.8459772.8758 1043231 1.15 26 168150.5315140.5114 23240.1330.12 8
41772.8058762.8357 105 321.17261.1825 169140.5215130.5014 233 3 0.12 8
42762.76752.79 57 1063231 1.162625 170140.5215130.4914 234 30.120.11 8
43752.7357742.7556 1073231 1.14 25 171140.51130.48 14 235 30.120.11 8
44742.6956732.7155 1083130 1.13 25 172140.50130.47 14 236 3 0.11 8
45732.6655722.6754 1093130 1.112524 173140.4914130.4613 237 3 0.11 8
46732.6254712.6453 110 30 1.102524 174130.4814120.4613 238 30.110.10 8
47722.60702.62 53 1113029 1.08 24 175130.4714120.4513 239 3 0.10 8
48712.5753702.5852 112 29 1.07 24 176130.4614120.4413 240 3 0.10 8
49702.5452692.5551 1132928 1.052423 177130.4514120.4313 241 3 0.108
7
50692.5151682.5250 1142928 1.042423 178120.44110.42 13 242 3 0.098
7
51682.48672.49 50 115 281.031.02 23 179120.44110.41 13 24332 0.098
7
52682.4550662.4649 1162827 1.01 23 180120.43110.41 13 244 2 0.098
7
53672.4249652.4348 1172827 1.00 23 181120.4213110.4012 245 20.080.09 7
54662.3948652.4047 1182726 0.982322 182 110.42130.3912 246 20.080.09 7
556564 2.374847 1192726 0.972322 183110.4113100.3812 247 2 0.08 7
56642.3347632.3446 120 260.960.95 22 184110.4013100.3812 248 2 0.08 7
57632.2946622.3045 1212625 0.94 22 185110.3913100.3712 249 20.070.08 7
586261 2.264645 1222625 0.932221 186110.39100.36 12 250 20.070.08 7
596260 2.234544 123 250.92220.9121 187 100.380.35 12 251 20.070.08 7
606159 2.194443 1242524 0.90 21 188100.3790.35 12 252 20.070.08 7
616058 2.164443 1252524 0.89 21 189100.361290.3411 253 20.070.08 7
625957 2.124342 126 240.880.87 21 190100.361290.3311 254 20.060.07 7
63582.0942562.0841 127240.8721230.8620 191100.351290.3311 255 20.060.07 7
645755 2.054241 1282423 0.852120 192 90.34120.3211 256 20.060.07 7
Notes: @benbbaldwin | 2023-04-17Notes: @benbbaldwin | 2024-03-28
1 Surplus value: draft value points1 Surplus value: draft value points
2 Surplus value: APY as percent of salary cap2 Surplus value: APY as percent of salary cap
3 On-Field Value: draft value points IGNORING SALARY COST3 On-Field Value: draft value points IGNORING SALARY COST
diff --git a/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-3-1.png b/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-3-1.png index fec8f30b..cc62eb02 100644 Binary files a/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-3-1.png and b/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-3-1.png differ diff --git a/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png b/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png index 93935bed..4f85dd4c 100644 Binary files a/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png and b/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png differ diff --git a/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png b/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png index 712b5733..d5fc83c6 100644 Binary files a/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png and b/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png differ diff --git a/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/header-attrs-2.23/header-attrs.js b/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/header-attrs-2.23/header-attrs.js new file mode 100644 index 00000000..dd57d92e --- /dev/null +++ b/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/header-attrs-2.23/header-attrs.js @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +// Pandoc 2.9 adds attributes on both header and div. We remove the former (to +// be compatible with the behavior of Pandoc < 2.8). +document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function(e) { + var hs = document.querySelectorAll("div.section[class*='level'] > :first-child"); + var i, h, a; + for (i = 0; i < hs.length; i++) { + h = hs[i]; + if (!/^h[1-6]$/i.test(h.tagName)) continue; // it should be a header h1-h6 + a = h.attributes; + while (a.length > 0) h.removeAttribute(a[0].name); + } +}); diff --git a/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/osf_draft_chart.csv b/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/osf_draft_chart.csv index 0341c966..64195ea6 100644 --- a/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/osf_draft_chart.csv +++ b/_posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/osf_draft_chart.csv @@ -1,257 +1,257 @@ draft_overall,osf_surplus,surplus,osf_fit -1,62,2.25,100 -2,65,2.35,99 -3,66,2.39,98 -4,68,2.45,96 -5,72,2.6,95 -6,81,2.95,94 -7,89,3.2,93 -8,96,3.46,91 -9,94,3.41,90 -10,95,3.42,89 -11,96,3.49,88 -12,100,3.62,87 -13,99,3.6,86 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NFL Draft Value Chart

+
NFL Draft @@ -2211,7 +2237,7 @@

NFL Draft Value Chart

Ben Baldwin https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/ -
2023-04-17 +
2024-03-28
@@ -2258,6 +2284,7 @@

Contents

Updated on February 27, 2023: (a) added more picks to the table at the bottom so it now displays picks 1-256, (b) added on-field value to table at the bottom, and (c) re-scaled surplus value so it’s 0-to-100 (thank you to Luckym4n_ for the suggestion)/

Updated on April 11, 2023: Add 2018 draft class to on-field value calculations. Now covers 2011 through 2018. For Calvin Ridley, assume he’ll get an extension equivalent to tag value. In addition, use archieved version of Sportrac rookie contract value to avoid site updates breaking the scrape.

Updated on April 17, 2023: Added position-specific draft curves.

+

Updated on April, 2024: Added 2019 draft class to on-field value calculations.

Part 1: Make a surplus value curve

In order to calculate the surplus value of each pick. We need two pieces of information. First, how much each pick costs (the contract); and second, how much benefit each pick provides (on-field performance).

How expensive is each draft pick’s rookie deal?

@@ -2278,7 +2305,7 @@

On-field value versus surplus value

-

How to read the chart: the first pick in the draft costs 4.1% of the salary cap (orange line). The on-field production is expected to be 6.4% of the salary cap (purple line). Thus, the surplus value associated with the first pick in the draft is 2.3% of the salary cap (green line).

+

How to read the chart: the first pick in the draft costs 4.1% of the salary cap (orange line). The on-field production is expected to be 6.5% of the salary cap (purple line). Thus, the surplus value associated with the first pick in the draft is 2.4% of the salary cap (green line).

We have re-produced the now-familiar result that for teams not drafting a quarterback, the surplus value of the very top picks is lower than later in the first round and even throughout most of the second round. This is because the dropoff in salary that teams have to pay to draft picks (orange line) is steeper than the dropoff in on-field value (purple line). This reflects the fact that teams are not very good at identifying the best players in the draft. We have a lot of evidence that this is the case.

This pattern of later first round picks having higher surplus value than early first round picks was originally referred to as the loser’s curse in the seminal paper by Cade Massey and Richard Thaler. Massey and Thaler wrote their paper during the pre-2011 CBA when rookie contracts were a lot more expensive; however, the pattern still holds up now. In addition, we have replicated earlier findings by PFF’s Timo Riske using a similar approach that took advantage of player contract data and yet another study by Riske that used PFF Wins Above Replacement (WAR).

In particular, our chart above looks remarkably similar to this picture below from Timo’s work, which is always a good sign that we’re on the right track:

@@ -2310,34 +2337,34 @@

Draft day trade: example 1

Let’s start with last year’s controversial Lions-Vikings trade, in which the Vikings were panned for the lack of return they got for moving back 20 picks in the first round.

Here’s the trade with the estimated values obtained from this post (again, the full table is displayed below):

    -
  • Lions receive: No. 12 (100), No. 46 (73). Total: 173
    • -
  • Vikings receive: No. 32 (82), No. 34 (86), No. 66 (55). Total: 223
    • -
  • Difference: 50, which is the value of pick No. 72
    • +
  • Lions receive: No. 12 (100), No. 46 (71). Total: 171
    • +
  • Vikings receive: No. 32 (81), No. 34 (84), No. 66 (54). Total: 219
    • +
  • Difference: 48, which is the value of pick No. 73

So the surplus value the Vikings obtained in this trade was the equivalent of an early third-round pick. Not bad for a trade that popular commentary thought that they lost!

What if we ignored surplus value and just looked at on-field value (i.e., player production ignoring cost)?

    -
  • Lions receive: No. 12 (87), No. 46 (54). Total: 141
    • -
  • Vikings receive: No. 32 (66), No. 34 (64), No. 66 (41). Total: 171
    • -
  • Difference: 30, which is the value of pick No. 91, or a pick towards the end of the 3rd round.
    • +
  • Lions receive: No. 12 (87), No. 46 (53). Total: 140
    • +
  • Vikings receive: No. 32 (65), No. 34 (64), No. 66 (40). Total: 169
    • +
  • Difference: 29, which is the value of pick No. 92, or a pick towards the end of the 3rd round.

So even if you ignore the cost of players entirely (which is not a good idea in a league with a salary cap), there is no argument against the Vikings winning this trade in terms of the expected value of the picks.

Draft day trade: example 2

One of the worst draft-day trades I can remember that didn’t involve players or future picks was the Jets trading up for Alijah Vera-Tucker in 2021. Let’s see how bad it looks using the chart below:

    -
  • Jets receive: No. 14 (100), No. 143 (20). Total: 120
    • -
  • Vikings receive: No. 23 (91), No. 66 (55), No. 86 (41). Total: 187
    • -
  • Difference: 67, which is more than the value of pick No. 3 (which is the same as the surplus value of pick 53)
    • +
  • Jets receive: No. 14 (100), No. 143 (19). Total: 119
    • +
  • Vikings receive: No. 23 (90), No. 66 (54), No. 86 (40). Total: 184
    • +
  • Difference: 65, which is more than the value of pick No. 1 (which is the same as the surplus value of pick 53)
-

Being extremely generous to the Jets, we could say they gave up the surplus value of a 2nd round pick to move up for a guard. Alternatively, we could say they gave up the surplus value of the No. 3 pick!

+

Being extremely generous to the Jets, we could say they gave up the surplus value of a 2nd round pick to move up for a guard. Alternatively, we could say they gave up the surplus value of the No. 1 pick!

Player for picks trade

This is somewhat complicated since some of the picks were in the future. Let’s be generous to the Seahawks and discount the 2022 picks by 10 percent. We will now use the APY version of the table in order to calculate the total cost of the Adams trade and extension:

  • Seahawks receive: 2022 pick 109 (1.11 * .9)
    • -
  • Jets receive: 2021 pick 23 (3.28), 2021 pick 86 (1.50), 2022 pick 10 (3.42 * .9)
    • -
  • Difference: 3.28 + 1.50 + (3.42 * .9) - (1.11 * .9) = 6.9 percent of the salary cap per year over 4 years
    • +
  • Jets receive: 2021 pick 23 (3.34), 2021 pick 86 (1.50), 2022 pick 10 (3.53 * .9)
    • +
  • Difference: 3.34 + 1.50 + (3.53 * .9) - (1.11 * .9) = 7.0 percent of the salary cap per year over 4 years
-

So we have arrived at 6.9% of the salary cap in APY per year over 4 years as the value of picks given up for the Seahawks. Adams’ 4-year deal extension with the Seahawks was $17.5 APY, or 9.6% of the salary cap at the time, per OTC. Dividing 6.9% (draft surplus given up) by 9.6% (contract APY), we need to inflate Adams’ APY by 72%, arriving at a true contract cost of, 30.1 million dollars per year over 4 years.

+

So we have arrived at 7.0% of the salary cap in APY per year over 4 years as the value of picks given up for the Seahawks. Adams’ 4-year deal extension with the Seahawks was $17.5 APY, or 9.6% of the salary cap at the time, per OTC. Dividing 7.0% (draft surplus given up) by 9.6% (contract APY), we need to inflate Adams’ APY by 73%, arriving at a true contract cost of, 30.3 million dollars per year over 4 years.

This is the same ballpark that Bill Barnwell landed on in his review of the trade, which was written before the extension was signed. Barnwell assumed an extension of $16 million APY:

“Factor in the cost of acquiring Adams and that four-year, $64 million extension suddenly becomes a four-year, $108.5 million contract. Instead of paying Adams $16 million per year, now he has cost the Seahawks more than $27 million per season, which is more than anybody in the league who isn’t a quarterback. If their picks end up being juicier than they were expecting, that price goes up. Adams has to be the best non-quarterback in the league to make the math work.”

@@ -2347,15 +2374,27 @@

Player for picks trade

Part 4: The full table

Here’s the full table:

-
+
- - - +
+ + - - - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - - - + + + - + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - - + + - + - + - - + + - - + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - - + + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - - + + - - + + - - - + + + - + - + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - + + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - - + + - + - + - - + + - - + + - - + + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - - + + - + - - + + - - + + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - + + - + - - + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - + - - + + - - + + - - - + + + - + - + - - + + - - + + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - + - + - - + + - - + + - - - + + + - + - - + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - + - - + + - + - - + + - + - - - + + + - + - - + + - - + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - - + + - - - + + + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - - + + - + - - - + + + - + - - + + - - - + + + - + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - - + + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - + - - + + - + - - + + - + - - + + - + - + - - - + + + - + - - + + - + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - + - - + + - + - + - + - + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - + - + - + - + - + - - + + - + - + - + - - + + - + - + - + - + - + - - + + - + - + - + - + - - - + + + - + - + - + - + - - - + + + - + - - - + + + - - - + + + - - - + + + - + - + - + - + - + - - + + - + - + - + - + - +
BB Draft Value Chart
PickPoints1APY2OFV3Points1APY2OFV3 PickPoints1APY2OFV3Points1APY2OFV3 PickPoints1APY2OFV3Points1APY2OFV3 PickPoints1APY2OFV3Points1APY2OFV3
1622.25642.38 100 65562.0541552.0440 129230.84220.83 20 19390.3312
80.3111
2652.35672.48 99 66552.0141542.0040 130230.83220.82 20 19490.3380.31 11
3662.3998682.5297 675553 1.974039 131230.8220220.8119 19590.3280.30 11
4682.45692.57 96 68541.94521.93 39 1322221 0.802019 19690.3180.29 11
5722.60732.72 95 69531.9139511.9038 133220.7920210.7819 197 80.310.29 11
6812.95823.06 94 70521.8838501.8737 134220.78210.77 19 198 80.3011
0.2810
7 893.203.32 93 71511.8538501.8437 135 210.770.76 19 19980.2911
70.2710
8 963.463.57 91 72501.82491.81 37 136210.76200.75 19 20080.2911
70.2710
9 943.413.51 90 734948 1.793736 137210.7719200.7618 20180.2811
70.2610
10 953.423.53 89 744947 1.76 36 138210.7619200.7518 20280.2811
70.2510
11963.49973.59 88 75481.7436471.7335 139210.7719200.7618 203 70.2711
0.2510
12 1003.623.72 87 76471.7236461.7135 140210.7619200.7518 204 70.260.24 10
13 993.60863.6985 774745 1.693534 141210.75200.74 18 20570.2660.24 10
14 1003.61853.7084 78461.6735451.6634 142210.74200.73 18 20670.2560.23 10
15993.57983.66 83 794544 1.64 34 143200.74190.72 18 20770.2560.23 10
161003.60993.69 82 804544 1.623433 144200.7318190.7117 20870.2460.22 10
17993.57983.65 81 814443 1.603433 145200.7218190.7117 209 60.2310
0.229
18983.54973.62 80 824442 1.58 33 146200.7218190.7017 210 60.2310
0.219
19973.50963.57 79 834342 1.563332 147200.7118190.6917 211 60.2210
0.219
20953.44943.51 78 844241 1.543332 148190.7018180.6817 21260.2210
50.209
21 933.38773.4576 854241 1.52 32 149190.69180.68 17 21360.2110
50.209
22923.3376913.4075 864140 1.503231 150190.69180.67 17 21460.2150.19 9
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7
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625957 2.124342 126 240.880.87 21 190100.361290.3311 254 20.060.07 7
63582.0942562.0841 127240.8721230.8620 191100.351290.3311 255 20.060.07 7
645755 2.054241 1282423 0.852120 192 90.34120.3211 256 20.060.07 7
Notes: @benbbaldwin | 2023-04-17Notes: @benbbaldwin | 2024-03-28
1 Surplus value: draft value points1 Surplus value: draft value points
2 Surplus value: APY as percent of salary cap2 Surplus value: APY as percent of salary cap
3 On-Field Value: draft value points IGNORING SALARY COST3 On-Field Value: draft value points IGNORING SALARY COST
@@ -3878,13 +3932,13 @@

Reuse

Text and figures are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution CC BY-NC 4.0. Source code is available at https://github.com/nflverse/open-source-football, unless otherwise noted. The figures that have been reused from other sources don't fall under this license and can be recognized by a note in their caption: "Figure from ...".

Citation

For attribution, please cite this work as

- 
Baldwin (2023, April 17). Open Source Football: NFL Draft Value Chart. Retrieved from https://www.opensourcefootball.com/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/
+ 
Baldwin (2024, March 28). Open Source Football: NFL Draft Value Chart. Retrieved from https://www.opensourcefootball.com/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/

BibTeX citation

- 
@misc{baldwin2023nfl,
+  
@misc{baldwin2024nfl,
   author = {Baldwin, Ben},
   title = {Open Source Football: NFL Draft Value Chart},
   url = {https://www.opensourcefootball.com/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/},
-  year = {2023}
+  year = {2024}
 }
diff --git a/docs/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-3-1.png b/docs/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-3-1.png index fec8f30b..cc62eb02 100644 Binary files a/docs/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-3-1.png and b/docs/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-3-1.png differ diff --git a/docs/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png b/docs/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png index 93935bed..4f85dd4c 100644 Binary files a/docs/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png and b/docs/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png differ diff --git a/docs/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png b/docs/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png index 712b5733..d5fc83c6 100644 Binary files a/docs/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png and b/docs/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/figure-html5/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png differ diff --git a/docs/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/header-attrs-2.20/header-attrs.js b/docs/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/header-attrs-2.20/header-attrs.js new file mode 100644 index 00000000..dd57d92e --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/nfl-draft-value-chart_files/header-attrs-2.20/header-attrs.js @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +// Pandoc 2.9 adds attributes on both header and div. We remove the former (to +// be compatible with the behavior of Pandoc < 2.8). +document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function(e) { + var hs = document.querySelectorAll("div.section[class*='level'] > :first-child"); + var i, h, a; + for (i = 0; i < hs.length; i++) { + h = hs[i]; + if (!/^h[1-6]$/i.test(h.tagName)) continue; // it should be a header h1-h6 + a = h.attributes; + while (a.length > 0) h.removeAttribute(a[0].name); + } +}); diff --git a/docs/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/osf_draft_chart.csv b/docs/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/osf_draft_chart.csv index 0341c966..64195ea6 100644 --- a/docs/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/osf_draft_chart.csv +++ b/docs/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/osf_draft_chart.csv @@ -1,257 +1,257 @@ draft_overall,osf_surplus,surplus,osf_fit -1,62,2.25,100 -2,65,2.35,99 -3,66,2.39,98 -4,68,2.45,96 -5,72,2.6,95 -6,81,2.95,94 -7,89,3.2,93 -8,96,3.46,91 -9,94,3.41,90 -10,95,3.42,89 -11,96,3.49,88 -12,100,3.62,87 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