Skip to content

Latest commit

 

History

History
115 lines (105 loc) · 3.5 KB

2024_01_08.md

File metadata and controls

115 lines (105 loc) · 3.5 KB

Oxide and Friends: January 8th, 2024

Predictions 2024!

We've been hosting a live show weekly on Mondays at 5p for about an hour, and recording them all; here is the recording.

Bryan Cantrill and Adam Leventhal were your hosts. Additional speakers--and predicters--are listed below with their predictions. (If you made predictions, please submit a PR to add or clarify yours)

Futurist 1 year 3 year 6 year
Adam "Instant LLM-driven ad generation" woven seamlessly into surrounding content VMware 38k employees -> 21k employees <50% of server CPU sales by $$ **not** x86
Ian No one year prediction
  • Companies that got rid of first-level managers, re-introduces that management layer
  • Rust in WebKit, to pull in third party libraries that are already in Chromium and Gecko
Mozilla divests from Firefox
Steve Apple VR will do well, but not take over the world. "Do well" means "well enough that they'll do a second revision." Not a Newton, but not an iPhone. The counter to this post by Elon Musk: "Done right, a compiler should be able to figure out type automatically. It’s not that hard. Not that it will matter much in the AI future." More people will use AI, but it's not going to have any impact on programming language development yet. Two parts: C++ will be considered a legacy programming language, and that C will see a small resurgance but not return to its earlier glory days.
Mike There will be a major privacy scandal only enabled by AI processing of video chat recordings. Rise of logging mechanisms that are optimized for machine-/LLM-based consumption rather than human-based consumption
LLM-based processing allows for the "cleanliness bar" around data to be lowered, giving rise to real data provenance
Dashboarding-for-everything gives way to AI-based causal reasoning to make sense of conflicting evidence from complex systems -- an AI-based "President’s Daily Brief" for systems
Bryan The idea of AI-based doom (e.g., "p(doom)", "x-risk") is out of the lexicon -- and Doomers take credit for saving us LLMs have completely revolutionized search; pre-LLM search feels antiquated Recorded meetings + LLM-based inference gives rise to a new approach ("omnocracy"?) that serves to automate middle management.
LLMs have revolutionized K-8 education
Robotics are still not meaningfully in the home
Some wealthy enclaves have banned drone delivery

If we got something wrong or missed something, please file a PR! Our next show will likely be on Monday at 5p Pacific Time on our Discord server; stay tuned to our Mastodon feeds for details, or subscribe to this calendar. We'd love to have you join us, as we always love to hear from new speakers!