Chapter 3 homework H5

[jsevo]

I believe that the number of boys in births following a girl is disproportionately high (unlike your answer atm, Rene).

here my R code that requires 10k samples from the posterior if births were independent (the 111 boys out of 200 data)

firstgirls <- sum(birth1==0)
firstwasgirl <- birth2[birth1==0]
firstgirls
boyfirstwasgirl <- sum(firstwasgirl)

simboys <- rbinom(n = 10000, size = firstgirls, prob = samples) #10k samples from posterior if idependent
dens(simboys, adj=1,)
abline(v=boyfirstwasgirl,  ) #what an outlier this number of boys following a girl is! probs engineering of designer babies.