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Welcome to the predictthat wiki!
When a user signs up, they will be given $1000 in play money (that is not convertible to real money) in order to place wagers.
Markets are specific outcomes that users may want to predict that will or won't happen.
When a user views a market, they should:
- be able to view the question that is being debated. "Will X happen by Y date?"
- be able to view the current odds of the outcome based on previous trades by others
- be able to view the name of person managing the market to check for reputation
If a viewer would like to see the odds of a real-world outcome, they should be able to create a market.
They will have to fill out three things before publishing it:
- The outcome in question
- The description, which will include the organization or authority who will determine the outcome
- The expected end time of the market end
In order to edit or delete the market post-publish, there must not be any activity on the market yet. This is to prevent market manipulation.
The resolution of the market will be allowed at any time, with the creator of the market ultimately deciding the outcome to "yes" or "no"
Suppose that there is a market called "Will the rainfall in Denver Colorado in December 2022 exceed 4 inches?"
If, by the end of 2022, the market resolves to "yes", all the "yes" shares will resolve to $1 credited to the holder's account. All the "no" shares will resolve to $0 to the holder's account.
If a user, for example, holds 100 "yes" shares at time of resolution and closing of the market, the user will have $100 credited to the user's account.
The minimum price for a share is
If another user is offering to sell X "yes" shares at $.78, the user will have an option to purchase it at that price. If it has already been sold, the user will be told that it has already been sold and no transaction will proceed.
Suppose the highest sell offer for "yes" shares is
Suppose a user would like to wager on the outcome of the market, believing that it will resolve to "yes".
They are able to inject liquidity to the market by pressing a button called "create liquidity". This will withdraw $1 from their account, creating one "yes" share and one "no" share. They will be able to list and sell those items at any price they choose.
If a user would like to search for specific markets, there will be a searchbar at the top of the page which will allow them to enter queries, returning any markets that have the queries within the title and search description.
A user will be able to view their current holdings in each respective market, closed or open. Each market will show the total and % loss and return for each market, and the top of the page will show overall gains and losses.
- Users can sign in, sign out, and sign up
- A demo log in will be available, with $1000 preloaded into the account
- Authenticated users will only be able to view markets, and not purchase
- On signout, users will be redirected to the homepage
- Non-authenticated users will be shown a homepage with an introduction to the concept of the site
- Non authenticated users will only be able to view markets and their respective data
- Authenticated users will be able to view, create, update, delete, and resolve markets.
- Authenticated users will be able to create shares (if money is in their account)
- Authenticated users will be able to sell and buy shares directly
- Authenticated users will be able to place open orders to sell or buy shares, which other users can fill
- Users will be able see reviews for users upon visiting the url for their profile
- Authenticated users will be able to create, update, and delete review for users upon visiting the url for their profile
- Users will be able see comments for markets
- Authenticated users will be able to create, update, and delete comments for markets
- All users will be able to search for markets, with description and title matching descriptions
- Authenticated users will be able to view their current positions, including profits/losses and overall profits/losses
