Merge branch 'main' into r-learner-conditional-outcomes

CHANGELOG.rst

@@ -20,6 +20,10 @@ Changelog
   :meth:`~metalearners.rlearner.RLearner.predict_conditional_average_outcomes`
   for :class:`~metalearners.rlearner.RLearner`.
 
+**Bug fixes**
+
+* Fix bug in which the :class:`~metalearners.slearner.SLearner`'s
+  inference step would have some leakage in the in-sample scenario.
 
 0.9.0 (2024-08-02)
 ------------------

benchmarks/readme.md

@@ -32,12 +32,12 @@ on ground truth CATEs:
 
 | S-learner                                                     | causalml_in_sample | causalml_oos | econml_in_sample | econml_oos | metalearners_in_sample | metalearners_oos |
 | :------------------------------------------------------------ | -----------------: | -----------: | ---------------: | ---------: | ---------------------: | ---------------: |
-| synthetic_data_continuous_outcome_binary_treatment_linear_te  |            14.5706 |      14.6248 |          14.5706 |    14.6248 |                14.5729 |          14.6248 |
-| synthetic_data_binary_outcome_binary_treatment_linear_te      |           0.229101 |     0.228616 |              nan |        nan |               0.229231 |           0.2286 |
-| twins_pandas                                                  |           0.314253 |     0.318554 |              nan |        nan |               0.371613 |         0.319028 |
-| twins_numpy                                                   |           0.314253 |     0.318554 |              nan |        nan |               0.361345 |         0.318554 |
-| synthetic_data_continuous_outcome_multi_treatment_linear_te   |                nan |          nan |          14.1468 |     14.185 |                14.1478 |          14.1853 |
-| synthetic_data_continuous_outcome_multi_treatment_constant_te |                nan |          nan |        0.0110779 |  0.0110778 |              0.0104649 |       0.00897915 |
+| synthetic_data_continuous_outcome_binary_treatment_linear_te  |            14.5706 |      14.6248 |          14.5706 |    14.6248 |                14.5707 |          14.6248 |
+| synthetic_data_binary_outcome_binary_treatment_linear_te      |           0.229101 |     0.228616 |              nan |        nan |               0.229201 |           0.2286 |
+| twins_pandas                                                  |           0.314253 |     0.318554 |              nan |        nan |               0.322171 |         0.319028 |
+| twins_numpy                                                   |           0.314253 |     0.318554 |              nan |        nan |               0.322132 |         0.318554 |
+| synthetic_data_continuous_outcome_multi_treatment_linear_te   |                nan |          nan |          14.1468 |     14.185 |                 14.147 |          14.1853 |
+| synthetic_data_continuous_outcome_multi_treatment_constant_te |                nan |          nan |        0.0110779 |  0.0110778 |              0.0101122 |       0.00897915 |
 
 | X-learner                                                     | causalml_in_sample | causalml_oos | econml_in_sample | econml_oos | metalearners_in_sample | metalearners_oos |
 | :------------------------------------------------------------ | -----------------: | -----------: | ---------------: | ---------: | ---------------------: | ---------------: |

metalearners/slearner.py

@@ -251,47 +251,18 @@ def predict_conditional_average_outcomes(
         n_obs = len(X)
         conditional_average_outcomes_list = []
 
-        # The idea behind using is_oos = True for in sample predictions is the following:
-        # Assuming observation i has received variant v then the model has been trained
-        # on row (X_i, v), therefore when predicting the conditional average outcome for
-        # variant v we have to use cross fitting to avoid prediciting on an identical row
-        # which the model has been trained on. (This happens either with overall, mean
-        # or median as some of the models would be trained with this row). On the other
-        # hand, when predicting the conditional average outcome for variant v' != v,
-        # the model has never seen the row (X_i, v'), so we can use it as it was out of
-        # sample.
-        # This can bring some issues where the cross fitted predictions are based on models
-        # which have been trained with a smaller dataset (K-1 folds) than the overall
-        # model and this may produce some different distributions in the outputs, for this
-        # it may make sense to restrict the oos_method to mean or median when is_oos = False,
-        # although further investigation is needed.
-        if not is_oos:
-            X_with_w = _append_treatment_to_covariates(
-                X,
-                self._fitted_treatments,
-                self._supports_categoricals,
-                self.n_variants,
-            )
-            in_sample_pred = self.predict_nuisance(
-                X=X_with_w, model_kind=_BASE_MODEL, model_ord=0, is_oos=False
-            )
-
-        for v in range(self.n_variants):
-            w = np.array([v] * n_obs)
+        for treatment_variant in range(self.n_variants):
+            w = np.array([treatment_variant] * n_obs)
             X_with_w = _append_treatment_to_covariates(
                 X, w, self._supports_categoricals, self.n_variants
             )
             variant_predictions = self.predict_nuisance(
                 X=X_with_w,
                 model_kind=_BASE_MODEL,
                 model_ord=0,
-                is_oos=True,
+                is_oos=is_oos,
                 oos_method=oos_method,
             )
-            if not is_oos:
-                variant_predictions[self._fitted_treatments == v] = in_sample_pred[
-                    self._fitted_treatments == v
-                ]
 
             conditional_average_outcomes_list.append(variant_predictions)