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Merge pull request #31 from twallema/master
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Modification of dynamics
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twallema authored May 11, 2020
2 parents 1dd0c6d + 699c7d5 commit 603a07f
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion README.md
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Expand Up @@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ A demo of the model can be found [here](src/SEIRSAgeModel_demo.ipynb). This note
### Model dynamics
We use an extended version of the SEIR model to model the disease at a higher resolution. This classic SEIR model splits the population into different categories, i.e. susceptible, exposed, infected and removed. We break down the latter two categories in super mild (asymptotic), mild, heavy and critical for the infected part of the population, whereas the removed population indicates the immune and dead fraction. Parameters values are (for now) based on Chinese covid-19 literature but we are seeking to closer collaborate with Belgian hospitals as more data becomes available. The dynamics are modeled using two frameworks: 1) deterministic and 2) stochastic. The deterministic model can fluently run age-structured (metapopulation) simulations naturally by changing the initial conditions. The stochastic model class is under construction but will be updated soon.

<img src="figs/flowchart2.jpg" alt="drawing" width="400"/>
<img src="figs/flowchartAll.jpg" alt="drawing" width="400"/>

### Additional capabilities
As of now (20/04/2020), the *SEIRSAgeModel* (deterministic model implementation with inherent age-structuring) contains 7 functions which can be grouped into three parts: 1) functions to run and visualise simulations, 2) functions to perform parameter estimations and visualise the results and 3) functions to optimize future policies using model predictive control (MPC). Also, scenario specific functions will be added over the course of next week.
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808 changes: 419 additions & 389 deletions src/SEIRSAgeModel_demo.ipynb

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336 changes: 89 additions & 247 deletions src/SEIRSNetworkModel_demo.ipynb

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342 changes: 228 additions & 114 deletions src/models.py

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1,866 changes: 1,866 additions & 0 deletions src/test.svg
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