This app produces ML models for arrivals:
- How many minutes off its scheduled arrival time an arrival will be
- How many minutes an arrival will take to get to chox from touchdown
- The likely walk time passengers will have from the plane to the immigration hall
Various models were tested for accuracy against LHR T2 data
6 months of data were used - 5 for training and the most recent 1 month for validation
The best combination of model partition & features was found to be
Terminal / Origin :: day / am/pm / carrier / flight number
Percentages in the headings refer to improvement in accuracy over the baseline model
Percentages in the table refer numbers of arrivals with the given improvement, eg 35% of arrivals had an improvement of 10% or more
| Partition | Features | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Term / Origin | day of week / am or pm / carrier / flight number | 34% | 23% | 18% | 12% | 5% | 5% | 5% | - | - | - |
| Term / Flight Number / Origin | day of week / am or pm | 31% | 23% | 18% | 12% | 7% | 5% | 5% | - | - | - |
| Term / Carrier | day of week / am or pm / origin / flight number | 23% | 17% | 11% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 2% | - | - | - |
The best combination of model partition & features was found to be
Terminal / Carrier :: day / am/pm / origin
| Partition | Features | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Term / Carrier | day of week / am or pm / origin | 88% | 73% | 47% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Term / Carrier | day of week / am or pm / origin / flight number | 88% | 70% | 47% | 29% | 20% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Term / Flight Number / Origin | day of week / am or pm | 66% | 44% | 26% | 15% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
The best combination of model partition & features was found to be
Terminal / Carrier :: day of week / am/pm / origin / flight number
| Partition | Features | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terminal / Carrier | day of week / am/pm / origin / flight number | 91% | 91% | 91% | 91% | 91% | 88% | 73% | 58% | 38% | 14% |
| Terminal / Carrier | day of week / am/pm / origin | 91% | 91% | 91% | 91% | 91% | 82% | 70% | 52% | 38% | 14% |
| Terminal / Origin | day of week + part of day + carrier + flight number | 83% | 83% | 81% | 81% | 81% | 80% | 70% | 51% | 26% | 9% |