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## Project Description

In this study, we demonstrate that machine learning techniques can predict abyssal MOC strength using only satellite-observable variables. We train a suite of models for this task using the ``Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean'' (ECCO) state estimate, obtaining state-of-the-art performance. We incorporate the ``Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Ocean Model'' (ACCESS), a high-resolution numerical ocean circulation model; and observational ``Rapid Climate Change-Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array'' (RAPID) data, a cross-basin sensor array that directly measures the Atlantic MOC strength. Our experiments indicate an approximately linear relationship between satellite-observable variables and abyssal MOC strength. We additionally demonstrate the utility of observational data for predicting long-range oceanic dependencies through the integration of RAPID, and show that a deep learning model is able to accurately capture latitude-invariant features for MOC strength prediction. Through these experiments, we present a methodology for predicting abyssal circulation, which will be instrumental in informing climate policy and empowering further oceanographic research.
In this study, we demonstrate that machine learning techniques can predict abyssal MOC strength using only satellite-observable variables. We train a suite of models for this task using the "Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean" (ECCO) state estimate, obtaining state-of-the-art performance. We incorporate the "Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Ocean Model" (ACCESS), a high-resolution numerical ocean circulation model; and observational "Rapid Climate Change-Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array" (RAPID) data, a cross-basin sensor array that directly measures the Atlantic MOC strength. Our experiments indicate an approximately linear relationship between satellite-observable variables and abyssal MOC strength. We additionally demonstrate the utility of observational data for predicting long-range oceanic dependencies through the integration of RAPID, and show that a deep learning model is able to accurately capture latitude-invariant features for MOC strength prediction. Through these experiments, we present a methodology for predicting abyssal circulation, which will be instrumental in informing climate policy and empowering further oceanographic research.

This work was carried out as part of the [Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Risks](https://ai4er-cdt.esc.cam.ac.uk/) (AI4ER) Centre for Doctoral Training Guided Team Challenge (GTC), which ran from November, 2023 to March, 2024.

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