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Tracy committed Oct 26, 2023
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22 changes: 11 additions & 11 deletions docs/Users_Guide/difficulty_index.rst
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Expand Up @@ -26,17 +26,17 @@ where :math:`\sigma` is the ensemble standard deviation, :math:`\bar{x}` is the
to the threshold, and :math:`P(x_{i,j}<thresh)` is the ensemble probability of being less than
the threshold. The :math:`(\sigma/\bar{x})` expression is a measure of spread normalized by the
mean, and it allows one to identify situations of truly significant uncertainty. Because the
difficulty index is defined only for positive definite quantities such as significant wave height,
division by zero is avoided. :math:`(\sigma/\bar{x})_{ref}` is a (scalar) reference value, for
example the maximum value of :math:`(\sigma/\bar{x})` obtained over the last 5 days as a function
of geographic region.
difficulty index is defined only for positive definite quantities such as wind speed or significant
wave height, division by zero is avoided. :math:`(\sigma/\bar{x})_{ref}` is a (scalar) reference
value, for example the maximum value of :math:`(\sigma/\bar{x})` obtained over the last 5 days as
a function of geographic region.

The first term in the outer brackets is large when the uncertainty in the current forecast is
large relative to a reference. The second term is minimum when all the probability is either
above or below the threshold, and maximum when the probability is evenly distributed about the
threshold. So it penalizes the split case, where the ensemble members are close to evenly split on
either side of the threshold. The A term outside the brackets is a weighting to account for
heuristic forecast difficulty situations. Its values for winds are given below.
threshold. Therefore, it penalizes the split case, where the ensemble members are close to evenly
split on either side of the threshold. The *A* term outside the brackets is a weighting to account
for heuristic forecast difficulty situations. Its values for winds are given below.

| A = 0 if :math:`\bar{x}` is above 50kt
| A = 0 if :math:`\bar{x}` is below 5kt
Expand All @@ -50,21 +50,21 @@ heuristic forecast difficulty situations. Its values for winds are given below.

Weighting applied to wind difficulty index.

The weighting ramps up to a value 1.5 for a value of :math:`x` that is slightly below the threshold.
The weighting ramps up to a value 1.5 for a value of *x* that is slightly below the threshold.
This accounts for the notion that a forecast is more difficult when it is slightly below the threshold
than slightly above. The value of :math:`A` then ramps down to zero for large values of
than slightly above. The value of *A* then ramps down to zero for large values of
:math:`\bar{x}_{i,j}`.

To gain a sense of how the difficulty index performs, consider the interplay between probability of
exceedance, normalized ensemble spread, and the mean forecast value (which sets the value of
:math:`A`) shown in Tables 3.1-3.3. Each row is for a different probability of threshold exceedance,
*A*) shown in Tables 3.1-3.3. Each row is for a different probability of threshold exceedance,
:math:`P(x_{i,j} \geq thresh)`, each column is for a different value of normalized uncertainty,
quantized as small, :math:`(\sigma/\bar{x})/(\sigma/\bar{x})_{ref}=0.01`, medium,
:math:`(\sigma/\bar{x})/(\sigma/\bar{x})_{ref}=0.05`, and large,
:math:`(\sigma/\bar{x})/(\sigma/\bar{x})_{ref}=1.0`. Each box contains the calculation of
:math:`d_{i,j}` for that case.

When :math:`\bar{x}` is very large or very small the difficulty index is dominated by :math:`A`.
When :math:`\bar{x}` is very large or very small the difficulty index is dominated by *A*.
Regardless of the spread or the probability of exceedance the difficulty index takes on a value near
zero and the forecast is considered to be easy (:numref:`table_1`).

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