Presidential Election 2019 Prediction

Presidential election 2019 prediction as a part of Statistical Inferences

Research Question

Which candidate will have the high possibility of winning the presidential election Sri Lanka 2019, among the Sri Lankan Gmail account users in the IT industry?

Introduction

Presidential election 2019, which is the trending and a blazing topic in Sri Lanka after the official announcement. There are 35 candidates have submitted their nominations and Sri Lanka's 7th executive president to be elected by more than 159,00,000 voters by voting in nearly 13000 polling stations all over the country. This project aims to conduct an opinion poll by selecting suitable ways for data gathering, analyze them, identify limitations/bias which could be there in the data-gathering phase and finally to predict the candidate who has the highest priority of winning the election.

Conclusion

After conducting a series of analysis, such as descriptive analysis, and techniques it is possible to conclude that the candidate appointed by Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) will get the majority vote from the target audience.

Discussion

One of the major limitations of this conducted poll is that the number of participants. And it can be further elaborated under the below-mentioned sections.

• 52 responses – Received only 52 responses for the poll. Since both the target audience and the sample size is very limited compared with the population, it is difficult to analyze and infer the results.
• Gmail account users – Since we have created a Google form, form access is limited to Gmail users. Even though it is decided to conduct an online survey, it could be implemented using web application such as LimeSurvey/SurveyMonkey instead of Google form where it will remove the barrier of limiting only to Gmail users.
• IT employees – The poll has shared among only the IT sector employees (nearly 10 companies)