Refine risk model tests (#157)

* Test tidy

Signed-off-by: Joe Moorhouse <[email protected]>

* Refine score-based risk measures. Wind-related tweaks.

Signed-off-by: Joe Moorhouse <[email protected]>

---------

Signed-off-by: Joe Moorhouse <[email protected]>

Pipfile

@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ zarr = "==2.10.3"
 pillow = "==9.4.0"
 dependency-injector = "==4.41.0"
 numba = "==0.56.4"
+pint = "*"
 
 [dev-packages]
 isort = "*"

methodology/PhysicalRiskMethodologyBibliography.bib

@@ -104,6 +104,17 @@ @article{DunneEtAl:2013
   publisher={Nature Publishing Group}
 }
 
+@Article{EberenzEtAl:2013,
+  title={Regional tropical cyclone impact functions for globally consistent risk assessments},
+  author={Eberenz, Samuel and L{\"u}thi, Samuel and Bresch, David N},
+  journal={Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
+  volume={21},
+  number={1},
+  pages={393--415},
+  year={2021},
+  publisher={Copernicus GmbH}
+}
+
 @techreport{HuizingaEtAl:2017,
   title={Global flood depth-damage functions: Methodology and the database with guidelines},
   author={Huizinga, Jan and De Moel, Hans and Szewczyk, Wojciech and others},

src/physrisk/api/v1/impact_req_resp.py

@@ -4,6 +4,7 @@
 from pydantic import BaseModel, Field
 
 from physrisk.api.v1.common import Assets, Distribution, ExceedanceCurve, VulnerabilityDistrib
+from physrisk.api.v1.hazard_data import Scenario
 
 
 class CalcSettings(BaseModel):
@@ -59,9 +60,13 @@ class RiskScoreValue(BaseModel):
 class ScoreBasedRiskMeasureDefinition(BaseModel, frozen=True):
     hazard_types: List[str] = Field([], description="Defines the hazards that the measure is used for.")
     values: List[RiskScoreValue] = Field([], description="Defines the set of values that the score can take.")
-    child_measure_ids: List[str] = Field(
-        [], description="The identifiers of the risk measures used to calculate the score."
+    underlying_measures: List[RiskMeasureDefinition] = Field(
+        [], description="Defines the underlying risk measures from which the scores are inferred."
     )
+    # for now underlying measures defined directly rather than by referencing an ID via:
+    # underlying_measure_ids: List[str] = Field(
+    #    [], description="The identifiers of the underlying risk measures from which the scores are inferred."
+    # )
 
     # should be sufficient to pass frozen=True, but does not seem to work (pydantic docs says feature in beta)
     def __hash__(self):
@@ -85,7 +90,7 @@ class RiskMeasuresForAssets(BaseModel):
 class ScoreBasedRiskMeasureSetDefinition(BaseModel):
     measure_set_id: str
     asset_measure_ids_for_hazard: Dict[str, List[str]]
-    score_definitions: Optional[Dict[str, ScoreBasedRiskMeasureDefinition]]
+    score_definitions: Dict[str, ScoreBasedRiskMeasureDefinition]
 
 
 class RiskMeasures(BaseModel):
@@ -94,6 +99,8 @@ class RiskMeasures(BaseModel):
     measures_for_assets: List[RiskMeasuresForAssets]
     score_based_measure_set_defn: ScoreBasedRiskMeasureSetDefinition
     measures_definitions: Optional[List[RiskMeasureDefinition]]
+    scenarios: List[Scenario]
+    asset_ids: List[str]
 
 
 class AcuteHazardCalculationDetails(BaseModel):

src/physrisk/data/hazard_data_provider.py

@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ class HazardDataHint:
     A hazard resource path can be specified which uniquely defines the hazard resource; otherwise the resource
     is inferred from the indicator_id."""
 
-    path: Optional[str]
+    path: Optional[str] = None
     # consider adding: indicator_model_gcm: str
 
     def group_key(self):

src/physrisk/hazard_models/core_hazards.py

@@ -4,19 +4,26 @@
 from physrisk.data.hazard_data_provider import HazardDataHint, SourcePath
 from physrisk.data.inventory import EmbeddedInventory, Inventory
 from physrisk.kernel import hazards
-from physrisk.kernel.hazards import ChronicHeat, CoastalInundation, RiverineInundation
+from physrisk.kernel.hazards import ChronicHeat, CoastalInundation, RiverineInundation, Wind
 
 
 class ResourceSubset:
     def __init__(self, resources: Iterable[HazardResource]):
-        self.resources = resources
+        self.resources = list(resources)
+
+    def any(self):
+        return any(self.resources)
 
     def first(self):
         return next(r for r in self.resources)
 
     def match(self, hint: HazardDataHint):
         return next(r for r in self.resources if r.path == hint.path)
 
+    def prefer_group_id(self, group_id: str):
+        with_condition = self.with_group_id(group_id)
+        return with_condition if with_condition.any() else self
+
     def with_group_id(self, group_id: str):
         return ResourceSubset(r for r in self.resources if r.group_id == group_id)
 
@@ -97,6 +104,7 @@ def __init__(self, inventory: Inventory):
         self.add_selector(ChronicHeat, "mean/degree/days/above/32c", self._select_chronic_heat)
         self.add_selector(RiverineInundation, "flood_depth", self._select_riverine_inundation)
         self.add_selector(CoastalInundation, "flood_depth", self._select_coastal_inundation)
+        self.add_selector(Wind, "max_speed", self._select_wind)
 
     def resources_with(self, *, hazard_type: type, indicator_id: str):
         return ResourceSubset(self._inventory.resources_by_type_id[(hazard_type.__name__, indicator_id)])
@@ -127,6 +135,10 @@ def _select_riverine_inundation(
             else candidates.with_model_gcm("MIROC-ESM-CHEM").first()
         )
 
+    @staticmethod
+    def _select_wind(candidates: ResourceSubset, scenario: str, year: int, hint: Optional[HazardDataHint] = None):
+        return candidates.prefer_group_id("iris_osc").first()
+
 
 def cmip6_scenario_to_rcp(scenario: str):
     """Convention is that CMIP6 scenarios are expressed by identifiers:

src/physrisk/kernel/calculation.py

@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@
 from physrisk.vulnerability_models import power_generating_asset_models as pgam
 from physrisk.vulnerability_models.chronic_heat_models import ChronicHeatGZNModel
 from physrisk.vulnerability_models.real_estate_models import (
+    GenericTropicalCycloneModel,
     RealEstateCoastalInundationModel,
     RealEstateRiverineInundationModel,
 )
@@ -28,6 +29,7 @@ def get_default_vulnerability_models() -> Dict[type, Sequence[VulnerabilityModel
         RealEstateAsset: [
             RealEstateCoastalInundationModel(),
             RealEstateRiverineInundationModel(),
+            GenericTropicalCycloneModel(),
         ],
         IndustrialActivity: [ChronicHeatGZNModel()],
         TestAsset: [pgam.TemperatureModel()],

src/physrisk/kernel/exposure.py

@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@
 
 import numpy as np
 
+from physrisk.data.hazard_data_provider import HazardDataHint
 from physrisk.kernel.assets import Asset
 from physrisk.kernel.hazard_model import (
     HazardDataRequest,
@@ -65,6 +66,8 @@ def get_data_requests(self, asset: Asset, *, scenario: str, year: int) -> Iterab
                 scenario=scenario,
                 year=year,
                 indicator_id=indicator_id,
+                # select specific model for wind for consistency with thresholds
+                hint=HazardDataHint(path="wind/jupiter/v1/max_1min_{scenario}_{year}") if hazard_type == Wind else None,
             )
             for (hazard_type, indicator_id) in self.exposure_bins.keys()
         ]

src/physrisk/requests.py

@@ -18,6 +18,7 @@
 from physrisk.kernel.exposure import JupterExposureMeasure, calculate_exposures
 from physrisk.kernel.hazards import all_hazards
 from physrisk.kernel.risk import AssetLevelRiskModel, BatchId, Measure, MeasureKey
+from physrisk.kernel.vulnerability_model import VulnerabilityModelBase
 
 from .api.v1.hazard_data import (
     HazardAvailabilityRequest,
@@ -29,6 +30,7 @@
     HazardDescriptionResponse,
     HazardResource,
     IntensityCurve,
+    Scenario,
 )
 from .api.v1.impact_req_resp import (
     AcuteHazardCalculationDetails,
@@ -264,14 +266,18 @@ def _get_asset_exposures(request: AssetExposureRequest, hazard_model: HazardMode
     )
 
 
-def _get_asset_impacts(request: AssetImpactRequest, hazard_model: HazardModel):
-    vulnerability_models = calc.get_default_vulnerability_models()
+def _get_asset_impacts(
+    request: AssetImpactRequest,
+    hazard_model: HazardModel,
+    vulnerability_models: Optional[Dict[Type[Asset], Sequence[VulnerabilityModelBase]]] = None,
+):
+    vulnerability_models = (
+        calc.get_default_vulnerability_models() if vulnerability_models is None else vulnerability_models
+    )
 
     # we keep API definition of asset separate from internal Asset class; convert by reflection
     # based on asset_class:
     assets = create_assets(request.assets)
-
-    vulnerability_models = calc.get_default_vulnerability_models()
     measure_calcs = calc.get_default_risk_measure_calculators()
     risk_model = AssetLevelRiskModel(hazard_model, vulnerability_models, measure_calcs)
 
@@ -351,8 +357,9 @@ def _create_risk_measures(
     Returns:
         RiskMeasures: Output for writing to JSON.
     """
+    nan_value = -9999.0  # Nan not part of JSON spec
     hazard_types = all_hazards()
-    measure_set_id = "measure_set_1"
+    measure_set_id = "measure_set_0"
     measures_for_assets: List[RiskMeasuresForAssets] = []
     for hazard_type in hazard_types:
         for scenario_id in scenarios:
@@ -362,7 +369,8 @@ def _create_risk_measures(
                     hazard_type=hazard_type.__name__, scenario_id=scenario_id, year=str(year), measure_id=measure_set_id
                 )
                 scores = [-1] * len(assets)
-                measures_0 = [float("nan")] * len(assets)
+                # measures_0 = [float("nan")] * len(assets)
+                measures_0 = [nan_value] * len(assets)
                 for i, asset in enumerate(assets):
                     # look up result using the MeasureKey:
                     measure_key = MeasureKey(asset=asset, prosp_scen=scenario_id, year=year, hazard_type=hazard_type)
@@ -382,6 +390,8 @@ def _create_risk_measures(
         measures_for_assets=measures_for_assets,
         score_based_measure_set_defn=score_based_measure_set_defn,
         measures_definitions=None,
+        scenarios=[Scenario(id=scenario, years=list(years)) for scenario in scenarios],
+        asset_ids=[f"asset_{i}" for i, _ in enumerate(assets)],
     )
 
 

src/physrisk/risk_models/risk_models.py

@@ -1,6 +1,11 @@
 from typing import Set
 
-from physrisk.api.v1.impact_req_resp import Category, RiskScoreValue, ScoreBasedRiskMeasureDefinition
+from physrisk.api.v1.impact_req_resp import (
+    Category,
+    RiskMeasureDefinition,
+    RiskScoreValue,
+    ScoreBasedRiskMeasureDefinition,
+)
 from physrisk.kernel.hazards import CoastalInundation, RiverineInundation, Wind
 from physrisk.kernel.impact_distrib import ImpactDistrib
 from physrisk.kernel.risk import Measure, RiskMeasureCalculator
@@ -18,7 +23,7 @@ def __init__(self):
             Category.MEDIUM: 0.05,
         }
         definition = ScoreBasedRiskMeasureDefinition(
-            hazard_types=[RiverineInundation.__name__, CoastalInundation.__name__],
+            hazard_types=[RiverineInundation.__name__, CoastalInundation.__name__, Wind.__name__],
             values=[
                 RiskScoreValue(
                     value=Category.REDFLAG,
@@ -42,10 +47,16 @@ def __init__(self):
                 ),
                 RiskScoreValue(value=Category.NODATA, label="No data.", description="No data."),
             ],
-            child_measure_ids=["annual_loss_{return_period:0.0f}year"],
+            underlying_measures=[
+                RiskMeasureDefinition(
+                    measure_id="measures_0",
+                    label=f"1-in-{self.return_period:0.0f} year annual loss.",
+                    description=f"1-in-{self.return_period:0.0f} year loss as fraction of asset insured value.",
+                )
+            ],
         )
         self.measure_definitions = [definition]
-        self._definition_lookup = {RiverineInundation: definition, CoastalInundation: definition}
+        self._definition_lookup = {RiverineInundation: definition, CoastalInundation: definition, Wind: definition}
 
     def _description(self, category: Category):
         return (

src/test/api/test_impact_requests.py

@@ -11,6 +11,12 @@
 from physrisk.data.pregenerated_hazard_model import ZarrHazardModel
 from physrisk.data.zarr_reader import ZarrReader
 from physrisk.hazard_models.core_hazards import get_default_source_paths
+from physrisk.kernel.assets import PowerGeneratingAsset, RealEstateAsset
+from physrisk.vulnerability_models.power_generating_asset_models import InundationModel
+from physrisk.vulnerability_models.real_estate_models import (
+    RealEstateCoastalInundationModel,
+    RealEstateRiverineInundationModel,
+)
 
 # from physrisk.api.v1.impact_req_resp import AssetImpactResponse
 # from physrisk.data.static.world import get_countries_and_continents
@@ -76,8 +82,15 @@ def test_impact_request(self):
         store = mock_hazard_model_store_inundation(TestData.longitudes, TestData.latitudes, curve)
 
         source_paths = get_default_source_paths(EmbeddedInventory())
+        vulnerability_models = {
+            PowerGeneratingAsset: [InundationModel()],
+            RealEstateAsset: [RealEstateCoastalInundationModel(), RealEstateRiverineInundationModel()],
+        }
+
         response = requests._get_asset_impacts(
-            request, ZarrHazardModel(source_paths=source_paths, reader=ZarrReader(store))
+            request,
+            ZarrHazardModel(source_paths=source_paths, reader=ZarrReader(store)),
+            vulnerability_models=vulnerability_models,
         )
 
         self.assertEqual(response.asset_impacts[0].impacts[0].hazard_type, "CoastalInundation")