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🐛 birth rate in HMD #3690

Merged
merged 4 commits into from
Dec 4, 2024
Merged

🐛 birth rate in HMD #3690

merged 4 commits into from
Dec 4, 2024

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lucasrodes
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@lucasrodes lucasrodes commented Dec 4, 2024

The birth rate in HMD was miss-calculated, leading to an underestimate of 3x.

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owidbot commented Dec 4, 2024

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Login: ssh owid@staging-site-data-population-estimates-hmd

chart-diff: ✅
  • 3/3 reviewed charts
  • Modified: 0/0
  • New: 0/0
  • Rejected: 3
data-diff: ❌ Found differences
= Dataset garden/demography/2024-12-02/survivor_percentiles
  = Table survivor_percentiles
= Dataset garden/demography/2024-12-03/birth_rate
  = Table birth_rate
    ~ Column birth_rate (changed data)
        ~ Changed values: 1491 / 39694 (3.76%)
                    country  year  birth_rate -  birth_rate +
                  Australia  1930     10.077688     19.961052
          England and Wales  1879     17.716702     34.876095
                     France  1857     13.107434     25.909298
                     France  1908     10.330355     20.474884
                   Scotland  1910     13.248308     26.168972
    ~ Column birth_rate_hist (changed data)
        ~ Changed values: 1491 / 39694 (3.76%)
                    country  year  birth_rate_hist -  birth_rate_hist +
                  Australia  1930          10.077688          19.961052
          England and Wales  1879          17.716702          34.876095
                     France  1857          13.107434          25.909298
                     France  1908          10.330355          20.474884
                   Scotland  1910          13.248308          26.168972
= Dataset garden/demography/2024-12-03/broken_limits_le
  = Table broken_limits_le
= Dataset garden/demography/2024-12-03/gini_le
  = Table gini_le
= Dataset garden/demography/2024-12-03/life_expectancy
  = Table life_expectancy_with_proj
  = Table life_expectancy_only_proj
  = Table life_expectancy
= Dataset garden/demography/2024-12-03/life_tables
  = Table diff_ratios
    ~ Column central_death_rate_mf_ratio (changed metadata)
-       -   title_public: Central death rate at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>>
+       +   title_public: Central death rate <% if age != 'total' %>at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>><% endif %>
  = Table life_tables
    ~ Column average_survival_length (changed metadata)
-       -   title_public: Average survival length at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>>
        ?                                         --- ^     ^^
+       +   title_public: Average survival length <% if age != 'total' %>at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>><% endif %>
        ?                                          ^^^^     ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^     +++++++                     +++++++++++
    ~ Column number_deaths (changed metadata)
-       -   title_public: Number of deaths at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>>
+       +   title_public: Number of deaths <% if age != 'total' %>at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>><% endif %>
    ~ Column number_person_years_lived (changed metadata)
-       -   title_public: Number of person-years lived at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>>
        ?                                              --- ^     ^^
+       +   title_public: Number of person-years lived <% if age != 'total' %>at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>><% endif %>
        ?                                               ^^^^     ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^     +++++++                     +++++++++++
    ~ Column number_person_years_remaining (changed metadata)
-       -   title_public: Number of person-years remaining at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>>
        ?                                                  --- ^     ^^
+       +   title_public: Number of person-years remaining <% if age != 'total' %>at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>><% endif %>
        ?                                                   ^^^^     ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^     +++++++                     +++++++++++
    ~ Column number_survivors (changed metadata)
-       -   title_public: Number of survivors at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>>
        ?                                     --- ^     ^^
+       +   title_public: Number of survivors <% if age != 'total' %>at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>><% endif %>
        ?                                      ^^^^     ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^     +++++++                     +++++++++++
= Dataset garden/demography/2024-12-03/phi_gender_le
  = Table phi_gender_le
= Dataset garden/hmd/2024-12-01/hmd
  = Table exposures
    ~ Column exposure (changed metadata)
-       -   title_public: Exposure-to-risk at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>>
+       +   title_public: Exposure-to-risk <% if age != 'total' %>at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>><% endif %>
  = Table deaths
    ~ Column deaths (changed metadata)
-       -   title_public: Number of deaths at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>>
+       +   title_public: Number of deaths <% if age != 'total' %>at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>><% endif %>
  = Table births
    ~ Column birth_rate (changed data)
        ~ Changed values: 13065 / 14763 (88.50%)
                    country  year    sex  birth_rate -  birth_rate +
                    Czechia  1959  total      6.844698     13.589216
          England and Wales  2020 female      4.997569      9.943435
                      Italy  1959  total      9.260049     18.362114
                     Poland  2020   male      4.953918      9.856371
                   Slovakia  1956   male     13.771309     27.182775
  = Table diff_ratios
    ~ Column central_death_rate_mf_ratio (changed metadata)
-       -   title_public: Central death rate at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>>
+       +   title_public: Central death rate <% if age != 'total' %>at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>><% endif %>
  = Table life_tables
    ~ Column average_survival_length (changed metadata)
-       -   title_public: Average survival length at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>>
        ?                                         --- ^     ^^
+       +   title_public: Average survival length <% if age != 'total' %>at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>><% endif %>
        ?                                          ^^^^     ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^     +++++++                     +++++++++++
    ~ Column central_death_rate (changed metadata)
-       -   title_public: Central death rate at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>>
+       +   title_public: Central death rate <% if age != 'total' %>at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>><% endif %>
    ~ Column life_expectancy (changed metadata)
-       -   title_public: Life expectancy at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>>
+       +   title_public: Life expectancy <% if age != 'total' %>at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>><% endif %>
    ~ Column number_deaths (changed metadata)
-       -   title_public: Number of deaths at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>>
+       +   title_public: Number of deaths <% if age != 'total' %>at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>><% endif %>
    ~ Column number_person_years_lived (changed metadata)
-       -   title_public: Number of person-years lived at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>>
        ?                                              --- ^     ^^
+       +   title_public: Number of person-years lived <% if age != 'total' %>at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>><% endif %>
        ?                                               ^^^^     ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^     +++++++                     +++++++++++
    ~ Column number_person_years_remaining (changed metadata)
-       -   title_public: Number of person-years remaining at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>>
        ?                                                  --- ^     ^^
+       +   title_public: Number of person-years remaining <% if age != 'total' %>at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>><% endif %>
        ?                                                   ^^^^     ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^     +++++++                     +++++++++++
    ~ Column number_survivors (changed metadata)
-       -   title_public: Number of survivors at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>>
        ?                                     --- ^     ^^
+       +   title_public: Number of survivors <% if age != 'total' %>at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>><% endif %>
        ?                                      ^^^^     ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^     +++++++                     +++++++++++
    ~ Column probability_of_death (changed metadata)
-       -   title_public: Probability of death at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>>
        ?                                      --- ^     ^^
+       +   title_public: Probability of death <% if age != 'total' %>at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>><% endif %>
        ?                                       ^^^^     ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^     +++++++                     +++++++++++
  = Table population
    ~ Dim country
+       + New values: 13215 / 1770810 (0.75%)
           year    sex   age    country
           1971  total total     Canada
           1961   male total  Lithuania
           1983 female total Luxembourg
           2014   male total     Russia
           2001  total total   Scotland
    ~ Dim year
+       + New values: 13215 / 1770810 (0.75%)
             country    sex   age  year
              Canada  total total  1971
           Lithuania   male total  1961
          Luxembourg female total  1983
              Russia   male total  2014
            Scotland  total total  2001
    ~ Dim sex
+       + New values: 13215 / 1770810 (0.75%)
             country  year   age    sex
              Canada  1971 total  total
           Lithuania  1961 total   male
          Luxembourg  1983 total female
              Russia  2014 total   male
            Scotland  2001 total  total
    ~ Dim age
+       + New values: 13215 / 1770810 (0.75%)
             country  year    sex   age
              Canada  1971  total total
           Lithuania  1961   male total
          Luxembourg  1983 female total
              Russia  2014   male total
            Scotland  2001  total total
    ~ Column population (changed metadata, new data)
+       +   <% if age == 'total' %>
+       +   <%- if sex == 'total' %>
+       +   The total number of people living in a country.
+       +   <%- else %>
+       +   The total number of << sex + 's' >> living in a country.
+       +   <%- endif %>
+       +   <%- else %>
+       +   <%- endif %>
-       -   name: Population aged << age >><< ', ' + sex + 's' if (sex != 'total') >>
+       +   name: Population<< 'aged ' + age if (age != 'total') >><< ', ' + sex + 's' if (sex != 'total') >>
-       -   title_public: Population at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>>
+       +   title_public: Population <% if age != 'total' %>at << age if age != '0' else 'birth'>><% endif %>

+       + New values: 13215 / 1770810 (0.75%)
             country  year    sex   age   population
              Canada  1971  total total   21687690.0
           Lithuania  1961   male total  1288433.625
          Luxembourg  1983 female total  187489.0625
              Russia  2014   male total   66545692.0
            Scotland  2001  total total    5061222.0
= Dataset garden/hmd/2024-12-03/hmd_country
  = Table birth_rate
  = Table birth_rate_month_max
  = Table birth_rate_month


Legend: +New  ~Modified  -Removed  =Identical  Details
Hint: Run this locally with etl diff REMOTE data/ --include yourdataset --verbose --snippet

Automatically updated datasets matching weekly_wildfires|excess_mortality|covid|fluid|flunet|country_profile|garden/ihme_gbd/2019/gbd_risk are not included

Edited: 2024-12-04 15:00:16 UTC
Execution time: 4.55 seconds

@lucasrodes lucasrodes changed the title 📊 closer look at population estimates by HMD 🐛 birth rate in HMD Dec 4, 2024
@lucasrodes lucasrodes marked this pull request as ready for review December 4, 2024 14:57
@lucasrodes lucasrodes merged commit f25bf83 into master Dec 4, 2024
8 checks passed
@lucasrodes lucasrodes deleted the data-population-estimates-hmd branch December 4, 2024 15:01
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