Conjunctions between Asteroids and Artificial Satellites during Close Fly-bys or Asteroid-Earth Impacts

Analyze conjunctions between asteroids during close flyby and artificial earth satellites

Prerequisites:

• pip3 install httpx sgp4 astropy numpy matplotlib poliastro

Notes

• To analyse historical flybys, the code is relying on a private TLE archive.

For complete data set, see Satelitte Asteroid Close Flybys

TODO

• load historical element sets from space-track.org.

Algorithm

• Use JPL Horizons to obtain state vectors around the closest approach using coarse time step. This time is set manually.
• Limit the time span to when the asteroid is within the GEO disposal orbit.
• Use fine time step to refine the ephemeris.
• Load complete element set from the archive that represents the catalog one day after the flyby close approach
• Remove those satellites whose apogee is less than the closest approach. This reduces object count from ~24k to ~4.5k
• Propagate each satellite for the duration of the flyby
• Determine the closest range, report 20 closest active and debris objects (separately), and plot

Output for 2023 BU Flyby

No     NORAD INTER      Satellite Name            Miss (km)  Time of Closest Approach (UTC)
 1     16993 86075A     COSMOS 1783                     757  2023-01-27 00:44:00.000
 2       829 64038A     ELEKTRON 3                      791  2023-01-27 00:50:00.000
 3      2610 66111A     OV1-9                          1162  2023-01-27 00:27:00.000
 4     13011 81122B     CAT 4                          1309  2023-01-27 01:58:00.000
 5     32708 08011A     AMC-14                         1539  2023-01-26 22:21:00.000
 6     16103 85088A     COSMOS 1687                    1835  2023-01-27 00:12:00.000
 7     38774 12050A     BEIDOU 14                      2119  2023-01-26 23:16:00.000
 8     28114 03056C     COSMOS 2403 (GLONASS)          2329  2023-01-26 23:22:00.000
 9     53105 22080A     LARES-2                        3003  2023-01-27 00:37:00.000
10     38745 12044B     EXPRESS MD2                    3190  2023-01-27 00:20:00.000
11     44344 19036F     DSX                            3278  2023-01-26 23:47:00.000
12     44115 19020D     O3B FM18                       3323  2023-01-26 23:53:00.000
13       271 62010A     MIDAS 5 (STRONGBACK)           3359  2023-01-27 00:46:00.000
14       340 62029A     TELSTAR 1                      3423  2023-01-27 00:39:00.000
15     28113 03056B     COSMOS 2402 (GLONASS)          3742  2023-01-27 01:32:00.000
16      1002 65008C     LES 1                          3816  2023-01-27 00:46:00.000
17     39188 13031A     O3B FM5                        3873  2023-01-27 00:00:00.000
18     43058 17079D     GALILEO 22 (2C8)               3970  2023-01-27 01:55:00.000
19     20959 90103A     NAVSTAR 22 (USA 66)            3971  2023-01-26 23:07:00.000
20     40081 14038C     O3B FM6                        4039  2023-01-27 00:00:00.000

No     NORAD INTER      Satellite Name (debris)   Miss (km)  Time of Closest Approach (UTC)
 1     38549 68014C     OGO 5 DEB                       458  2023-01-27 00:36:00.000
 2     47332 11037NP    FREGAT DEB                      633  2023-01-27 00:21:00.000
 3     36959 06006CR    BREEZE-M DEB                    681  2023-01-27 00:04:00.000
 4     34229 06006AU    BREEZE-M DEB                    742  2023-01-27 00:35:00.000
 5     33537 88081M     ARIANE 3 DEB                    796  2023-01-26 23:48:00.000
 6      8546 75123D     SL-12 R/B(AUX MOTOR)            914  2023-01-27 00:54:00.000
 7     15266 84095H     SL-12 R/B(AUX MOTOR)            934  2023-01-27 00:33:00.000
 8     47330 11037NM    FREGAT DEB                     1015  2023-01-27 00:37:00.000
 9     46015 11037HS    FREGAT DEB                     1102  2023-01-27 00:37:00.000
10     45823 11037BH    FREGAT DEB                     1108  2023-01-27 00:38:00.000
11     45631 11037X     FREGAT DEB                     1164  2023-01-27 00:23:00.000
12     20127 88063E     ARIANE 3 DEB                   1219  2023-01-27 01:13:00.000
13      5702 63014CU    WESTFORD NEEDLES               1248  2023-01-27 00:15:00.000
14     37476 99025EJW   FENGYUN 1C DEB                 1251  2023-01-27 00:26:00.000
15     84236            TBA - TO BE ASSIGNED           1262  2023-01-26 23:48:00.000
16     26785 84035C     CZ-3 DEB                       1366  2023-01-27 01:03:00.000
17     84188            TBA - TO BE ASSIGNED           1380  2023-01-27 00:15:00.000
18     39345 10057K     CZ-3C DEB                      1426  2023-01-27 00:03:00.000
19     43982 14055AM    ATLAS 5 CENTAUR DEB            1429  2023-01-27 01:17:00.000
20     18603 62010G     MIDAS 5 DEB                    1461  2023-01-27 00:39:00.000