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Investigating the policy-driven factors contributing to South Korea’s declining birth rate, modeling, and producing scenario-based forecasts.

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Analysis of South Korea's Fertility / Birth Rate

  • Investigating the policy-driven factors contributing to South Korea’s declining birth rate, modeling, and producing scenario-based forecasts.

Comparative Analysis: Fertility rate trends between South Korea and Japan

Explanatory Variables:

  • Female employment rates
  • Paternal leave policies and proportions by gender
  • Child care facility availability and composition

Multi-Regression Modeling:

  • Multi-linear regression model incorporating parental leave rates and trend components.
  • Forecasting future fertility rates based on different policy scenarios.
  • Multi-regression model performed better than MA(1) model with 1 differencing; equivalent to ARIMA(0,2,1) for rolling forecast origin cross validation on all CV criterias(RMSE, MAPE, RMSEE).

Main Findings

  • South Korea’s birth rate is declining faster than Japan’s, despite similar female employment trends.
  • Child Care & Paternal Leave: Higher paternal leave rates and expanded child care in Japan have slowed its birth rate decline.
  • Forecast: Based on current trends for paternal leave, fertility rate between 0.41994 and 0.42006 is estimated with 95% confidence intervals for 2030.
  • Proposed Scenario: Increasing maternity leave proportions to 84.5% by 2030 could improve South Korea’s fertility rate by 20%.

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