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- Investigating the policy-driven factors contributing to South Korea’s declining birth rate, modeling, and producing scenario-based forecasts.
Explanatory Variables:
- Female employment rates
- Paternal leave policies and proportions by gender
- Child care facility availability and composition
Multi-Regression Modeling:
- Multi-linear regression model incorporating parental leave rates and trend components.
- Forecasting future fertility rates based on different policy scenarios.
- Multi-regression model performed better than MA(1) model with 1 differencing; equivalent to ARIMA(0,2,1) for rolling forecast origin cross validation on all CV criterias(RMSE, MAPE, RMSEE).
- South Korea’s birth rate is declining faster than Japan’s, despite similar female employment trends.
- Child Care & Paternal Leave: Higher paternal leave rates and expanded child care in Japan have slowed its birth rate decline.
- Forecast: Based on current trends for paternal leave, fertility rate between 0.41994 and 0.42006 is estimated with 95% confidence intervals for 2030.
- Proposed Scenario: Increasing maternity leave proportions to 84.5% by 2030 could improve South Korea’s fertility rate by 20%.